Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Calciphylaxis: a Literature Review Based in Two Case Reports

Calciphylaxis is a rare and devastating obliterative vasculopathy, leading to ischemia and subcutaneous necrosis. In most cases it affects patients with renal disease and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We present two case reports followed recently in our department, and a literature review on this topic. Case one refers to an 80 -year -old Caucasian woman with chronic kidney disease stage 5 and primary hyperparathyroidism with secondary brown tumour and calciphylaxis. Case two refers to a 59 -year -old Caucasian woman admitted with severe nephrotic syndrome associated with amyloidosis, that developed a catastrophic picture of calciphylaxis, ending in the patient’s death. There is a critical need to understand the pathogenesis of calciphylaxis. Its comprehension is the only way to improve the survival of these patients, and may help to elucidate the pathophysiology of vascular calcification in general. Educating physicians in the prevention and early detection of calciphylaxis is crucial. Only by increasing the knowledge about risk factors, pathophysiology, response to treatment and outcome, will we be able to improve prophylaxis and therapy of patients with calciphylaxis, decreasing the high mortality of this entity.

Cutaneous Infection by Different Alternaria Species in a Liver Transplant Recipient

Fungal invasive infections are rare in general population but are an emergent cause of infection in the immunocompromized population, especially in the solid organ transplant recipients. Herein the authors report a clinical case of a liver transplanted patient suffering a cutaneous co-existent infection with A. alternata as well as A. infectoria. To our knowledge this is the first case of cutaneous concomitant infection due to those two species reported not only in Portugal but also worldwide. The patient was treated with surgical excision of the lesions and oral itraconazol without relapse.