Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Liver Depurative Techniques: A Single Liver Transplantation Center Experience

In a liver transplant (LT) center, treatments with Prometheus were evaluated. The main outcome considered was 1 and 6 months survival. Methods. During the study period, 74 patients underwent treatment with Prometheus; 64 were enrolled,with a mean age of 51 13 years; 47men underwent 212 treatments (mean, 3.02 per patient). The parameters evaluated were age, sex, laboratorial (liver enzymes, ammonia) and clinical (model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score) data. Results. Death was verified in 23 patients (35.9%) during the hospitalization period, 20 patients (31.3%) were submitted to liver transplantation, and 21 were discharged. LT was performed in 4 patients with acute liver failure (ALF, 23.7%), in 7 patients with acute on chronic liver failure (AoCLF, 43.7%), and in 6 patients with liver disease after LT (30%). Seven patients who underwent LT died (35%). In the multivariate analysis, older age (P ¼ .015), higher international normalized ratio (INR) (P ¼ .019), and acute liver failure (P ¼ .039) were independently associated with an adverse 1-month clinical outcome. On the other hand, older age (P ¼ .011) and acute kidney injury (P ¼ .031) at presentation were both related to worse 6-month outcome. For patients with ALF and AoCLF we did not observe the same differences. Conclusions. In this cohort, older age was the most important parameter defining 1- and 6-month survival, although higher INR and presence of ALF were important for 1-month survival and AKI for 6-month survival. No difference was observed between patients who underwent LT or did not have LT.