4 resultados para MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL


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Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

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INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Adult orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is associated with considerable blood product requirements. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of preoperative information to predict intraoperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion requirements among adult liver recipients. METHODS: Preoperative variables with previously demonstrated relationships to intraoperative RBC transfusion were identified from the literature: sex, age, pathology, prothrombin time (PT), factor V, hemoglobin (Hb), and platelet count (plt). These variables were then retrospectively collected from 758 consecutive adult patients undergoing OLT from 1997 to 2007. Relationships between these variables and intraoperative blood transfusion requirements were examined by both univariate analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Univariate analysis confirmed significant associations between RBC transfusion and PT, factor V, Hb, Plt, pathology, and age (P values all < .001). However, stepwise backward multivariate analysis excluded variables Plt and factor V from the multiple regression linear model. The variables included in the final predictive model were PT, Hb, age, and pathology. Patients suffering from liver carcinoma required more blood products than those suffering from other pathologies. Yet, the overall predictive power of the final model was limited (R(2) = .308; adjusted R(2) = .30). CONCLUSION: Preoperative variables have limited predictive power for intraoperative RBC transfusion requirements even when significant statistical associations exist, identifying only a small portion of the observed total transfusion variability. Preoperative PT, Hb, age, and liver pathology seem to be the most significant predictive factors but other factors like severity of liver disease, surgical technique, medical experience in liver transplantation, and other noncontrollable human variables may play important roles to determine the final transfusion requirements.

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Diabetes mellitus is an epidemic multisystemic chronic disease that frequently is complicated by complex wound infections. Innovative topical antimicrobial therapy agents are potentially useful for multimodal treatment of these infections. However, an appropriately standardized in vivo model is currently not available to facilitate the screening of these emerging products and their effect on wound healing. To develop such a model, we analyzed, tested, and modified published models of wound healing. We optimized various aspects of the model, including animal species, diabetes induction method, hair removal technique, splint and dressing methods, the control of unintentional bacterial infection, sampling methods for the evaluation of bacterial burden, and aspects of the microscopic and macroscopic assessment of wound healing, all while taking into consideration animal welfare and the '3Rs' principle. We thus developed a new wound infection model in rats that is optimized for testing topical antimicrobial therapy agents. This model accurately reproduces the pathophysiology of infected diabetic wound healing and includes the current standard treatment (that is, debridement). The numerous benefits of this model include the ready availability of necessary materials, simple techniques, high reproducibility, and practicality for experiments with large sample sizes. Furthermore, given its similarities to infected-wound healing and treatment in humans, our new model can serve as a valid alternative for applied research.

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OBJECTIVE: Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a disease caused by mutations in the Hfe gene characterised by systemic iron overload and associated with an increased prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) but the role of iron overload in the development of OA is still undefined. To further understand the molecular mechanisms involved we have used a murine model of HH and studied the progression of experimental OA under mechanical stress. DESIGN: OA was surgically induced in the knee joints of 10-week-old C57BL6 (wild-type) mice and Hfe-KO mice. OA progression was assessed using histology, micro CT, gene expression and immunohistochemistry at 8 weeks after surgery. RESULTS: Hfe-KO mice showed a systemic iron overload and an increased iron accumulation in the knee synovial membrane following surgery. The histological OA score was significantly higher in the Hfe-KO mice at 8 weeks after surgery. Micro CT study of the proximal tibia revealed increased subchondral bone volume and increased trabecular thickness. Gene expression and immunohistochemical analysis showed a significant increase in the expression of matrix metallopeptidase 3 (MMP-3) in the joints of Hfe-KO mice compared with control mice at 8 weeks after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: HH was associated with an accelerated development of OA in mice. Our findings suggest that synovial iron overload has a definite role in the progression of HH-related OA