Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Impacto da Obesidade nos Resultados após Angioplastia Primária em Doentes com Enfarte Agudo do Miocárdio com Elevação do Segmento ST

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is an important risk factor for the development of diabetes, hypertension, coronary disease, left ventricular dysfunction, stroke and cardiac arrhythmias. Paradoxically, previous studies in patients undergoing elective coronary angioplasty showed a reduction in hospital and long-term mortality in obese patients. The relation with body mass index (BMI) has been less studied in the context of primary angioplasty. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of obesity on the results of ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction treated by primary angioplasty. METHODS: This was a study of 464 consecutive patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty, 78% male, mean age 61 +/- 13 years. We assessed in-hospital, 30-day and one-year mortality according to BMI. Patients were divided into three groups according to BMI: normal--18-24.9 kg/m2 (n = 171); overweight--25-29.9 kg/m2 (n = 204); and obese-- > 30 kg/m2 (n = 89). RESULTS: Obese patients were younger (ANOVA, p < 0.001) and more frequently male (p = 0.014), with more hypertension (p = 0.001) and dyslipidemia (p = 0.006). There were no differences in the prevalence of diabetes, previous cardiac history, heart failure on admission, anterior location, multivessel disease, peak total CK or medication prescribed, except that obese patients received more beta-blockers (p = 0.049). In-hospital mortality was 9.9% for patients with normal BMI, 3.4% for overweight patients and 6.7% for obese patients (p = 0.038). Mortality at 30 days was 11 4.4% and 7.8% (p = 0.032) and at one year 12.9%, 4.9% and 9% (p = 0.023), respectively. On univariate analysis, overweight was the only BMI category with a protective effect; however, after multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for confounding variables, none of the BMI categories could independently predict outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight patients had a better prognosis after primary angioplasty for ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction compared with other BMI categories, but this was dependent on other potentially confounding variables.

Inducibility of Atrial Fibrillation During Electrophysiologic Evaluation is Associated with Increased Dispersion of Atrial Refractoriness

The impact of atrial dispersion of refractoriness (Disp_A) in the inducibility and maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been fully resolved. AIM: To study the Disp_A and the vulnerability (A_Vuln) for the induction of self-limited (<60 s) and sustained episodes of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with paroxysmal AF (PAF): 29 patients without structural heart disease and 18 with hypertensive heart disease. Atrial effective refractory period (ERP) was assessed at five sites--right atrial appendage and low lateral right atrium, high interatrial septum, proximal and distal coronary sinus. We compared three groups: group A - AF not inducible (n=13); group B - AF inducible, self-limited (n=18); group C - AF inducible, sustained (n=16). Age, lone AF, hypertension, left atrial and left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic function, duration of AF history, atrial flutter/tachycardia, previous antiarrhythmics, and Disp_A were analysed with logistic regression to determine association with A_Vuln for AF inducibility. The ERP at different sites showed no differences among the groups. Group A had a lower Disp_A compared to group B (47+/-20 ms vs 82+/-65 ms; p=0.002), and when compared to group C (47+/-20 ms vs 80+/-55 ms; p=0.008). There was no significant difference in Disp_A between groups B and C. By means of multivariate regression analysis, the only predictor of A_Vuln was Disp_A (p=0.04). Conclusion: In patients with PAF, increased Disp_A represents an electrophysiological marker of A_Vuln. Inducibility of both self-limited and sustained episodes of AF is associated with similar values of Disp_A. These findings suggest that the maintenance of AF is influenced by additional factors.

Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Risk Factors for Latex Sensitization in Children with Spina Bifida

Background: Children with spina bifida represent the major risk group for latex sensitization. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of latex sensitization in these children and to identify risk factors. Material and methods: We studied 57 patients with spina bifida. The mean age was 5.6 years and the male/female ratio was 0.8/1. In all patients a questionnaire, skin prick test (SPT) with latex (UCBStallergènes, Lofarma and ALK-Abelló), common aeroallergens and fruits (UCB-Stallergènes) and serum determination of total IgE (AlaSTAT) were performed. Results: The prevalence of latex sensitization was 30 %; only two sensitized children (12 %) had symptoms after exposure. Risk factors for latex sensitization were age 5 years (p = 0.008; OR = 6.0; 95% CI = 1.7-22.1), having at least four previous surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 18.5; 95% CI = 3.6-94.8), having undergone surgery in the first 3 months of life (p = 0.008; OR = 5.4; 95% CI = 0.7-29.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.03; OR = 3.8; 95 %CI = 1.1-13.1). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only a history of four or more surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 26.3; 95 %CI = 2.9-234.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.02; OR = 8.6; 95% CI = 1.4-53.4) were independently associated with latex sensitization. Sex, family and personal allergic history, hydrocephalus with ventriculoperitoneal shunt, cystourethrograms, intermittent bladder catheterization and atopy were not related to latex sensitization. Conclusions: In children with spina bifida, significant and independent risk factors identified for latex sensitization were multiple interventions and higher levels of total serum IgE. A prospective study will clarify the clinical evolution of assymptomatic children sensitized to latex.

Oral Contraceptive Use and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis

Experimental and clinical data suggest a role of sex steroids in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Scant information is available about the potential effect of oral contraceptive (OC) use on the prognosis of the disease. We aimed to evaluate this. The study population consisted of 132 women with relapsing-remitting MS before receiving disease modifying treatment and a mean disease duration 6.2 (SD 5.1) years. Three groups of patients were distinguished according to their OC behavior: [1] never-users, patients who never used OC [2] past-users, patients who stopped OC use before disease onset, and [3] after-users, those who used these drugs after disease onset. Multiple linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between oral contraceptive use and annualized relapse rates, disability accumulation and severity of the disease. After-user patients had lower Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) values than never users (p<0.001 and p=0.002, respectively) and past users (p=0.010 and p=0.002, respectively). These patients were also more likely to have a benign disease course (MSSS<2.5) than never and past users together (OR: 4.52, 95%CI: 2.13-9.56, p<0.001). This effect remained significant after adjustment for confounders, including smoking and childbirths (OR: 2.97, 95%CI: 1.24, 6.54, p=0.011 and for MSSS β: -1.04; 95% C.I. -1.78, -0.30, p=0.006). These results suggest that OC use in women with relapsing-remitting MS is possible associated with a milder disabling disease course.

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

Food Allergy and Anaphylaxis in Infants and Preschool-Age Children

Food allergy (FA) prevalence data in infants and preschool-age children are sparse, and proposed risk factors lack confirmation. In this study, 19 children’s day care centers (DCC) from 2 main Portuguese cities were selected after stratification and cluster analysis. An ISAAC’s (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) derived health questionnaire was applied to a sample of children attending DCCs. Outcomes were FA parental report and anaphylaxis. Logistic regression was used to explore potential risk factors for reported FA. From the 2228 distributed questionnaires, 1217 were included in the analysis (54.6%). Children’s median age was 3.5 years, and 10.8% were described as ever having had FA. Current FA was reported in 5.7%. Three (0.2%) reports compatible with anaphylaxis were identified. Reported parental history of FA, personal history of atopic dermatitis, and preterm birth increased the odds for reported current FA. A high prevalence of parental-perceived FA in preschool-age children was identified. Risk factor identification may enhance better prevention.