Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

The Hybrid Approach for Palliation of Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome: Intermediate Results of a Single-Center Experience

INTRODUCTION: Hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) is a major cause of cardiac death during the first week of life. The hybrid approach is a reliable, reproducible treatment option for patients with HLHS. Herein we report our results using this approach, focusing on its efficacy, safety and late outcome. METHODS: We reviewed prospectively collected data on patients treated for HLHS using a hybrid approach between July 2007 and September 2014. RESULTS: Nine patients had a stage 1 hybrid procedure, with seven undergoing a comprehensive stage 2 procedure. One patient completed the Fontan procedure. Five patients underwent balloon atrial septostomy after the hybrid procedure; in three patients, a stent was placed across the atrial septum. There were three deaths: two early after the hybrid procedure and one early after stage two palliation. Overall survival was 66%. CONCLUSIONS: In our single-center series, the hybrid approach for HLHS yields intermediate results comparable to those of the Norwood strategy. The existence of dedicated teams for the diagnosis and management of these patients, preferably in high-volume centers, is of major importance in this condition.

Osmolality of Elemental and Semi-Elemental Formulas Supplemented with Nonprotein Energy Supplements

Elemental and semi-elemental formulas are used to feed infants with short bowel syndrome, who may not be able to tolerate feeds of more than 310 mOsm kg(-1). The present study aimed to measure the osmolality of elemental and semi-elemental formulas at different concentrations, with and without the addition of nonprotein energy supplements.