Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Upper Arm Measurements of Healthy Neonates Comparing Ultrasonography and Anthropometric Methods

Objective: To compare measurements of the upper arm cross-sectional areas (total arm area,arm muscle area, and arm fat area of healthy neonates) as calculated using anthropometry with the values obtained by ultrasonography. Materials and methods: This study was performed on 60 consecutively born healthy neonates: gestational age (mean6SD) 39.661.2 weeks, birth weight 3287.16307.7 g, 27 males (45%) and 33 females (55%). Mid-arm circumference and tricipital skinfold thickness measurements were taken on the left upper mid-arm according to the conventional anthropometric method to calculate total arm area, arm muscle area and arm fat area. The ultrasound evaluation was performed at the same arm location using a Toshiba sonolayer SSA-250AÒ, which allows the calculation of the total arm area, arm muscle area and arm fat area by the number of pixels enclosed in the plotted areas. Statistical analysis: whenever appropriate, parametric and non-parametric tests were used in order to compare measurements of paired samples and of groups of samples. Results: No significant differences between males and females were found in any evaluated measurements, estimated either by anthropometry or by ultrasound. Also the median of total arm area did not differ significantly with either method (P50.337). Although there is evidence of concordance of the total arm area measurements (r50.68, 95% CI: 0.55–0.77) the two methods of measurement differed for arm muscle area and arm fat area. The estimated median of measurements by ultrasound for arm muscle area were significantly lower than those estimated by the anthropometric method, which differed by as much as 111% (P,0.001). The estimated median ultrasound measurement of the arm fat was higher than the anthropometric arm fat area by as much as 31% (P,0.001). Conclusion: Compared with ultrasound measurements using skinfold measurements and mid-arm circumference without further correction may lead to overestimation of the cross-sectional area of muscle and underestimation of the cross-sectional fat area. The correlation between the two methods could be interpreted as an indication for further search of correction factors in the equations.

Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A in Portuguese Women with Recurrent Miscarriage: Is it Worthwhile to Investigate?

OBJECTIVE: To compare the prevalence of factor V Leiden (FVL) and prothrombin (PT) G20210A mutations in Portuguese women with unexplained recurrent miscarriage (RM) and a control group of parous women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: FVL and PT G20210A analysis were carried out in 100 women with three or more consecutive miscarriages and 100 controls with no history of pregnancy losses. Secondary analysis was made regarding gestational age at miscarriage (embryonic and fetal losses). RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence of FVL and PT G20210A was similar in women with RM (5 and 3%) compared with controls (5 and 1%) OR 1.36 (CI 95% 0.45-4.08). In RM embryonic subgroup, PT G20210A was observed in 1.3% of women and FVL prevalence (2.6%) was inclusively lesser than that of controls. Both polymorphisms were more prevalent in women with fetal losses than in controls, although statistical significance was not reached due to the small size of the >10 weeks' subgroup. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that neither FVL nor PT G20210A is associated with RM prior to 10 weeks of gestation. Therefore, its screening is not indicated as an initial approach in Portuguese women with embryonic RM and negative personal thromboembolic history.

Bronchial Asthma in Children: Clinical and Epidemiologic Approach in Different Portuguese Speaking Countries

BACKGROUND: Geographical differences in asthma prevalence are currently accepted, but evidence is sparse due to the lack of multicentre studies using the same protocol. OBJECTIVES: To compare the prevalence of asthma and atopy among schoolchildren from Portuguese speaking countries (ISAAC and Portuguese Study) and evaluate some environmental variables, such as house dust mite exposure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Significant random samples of schoolchildren studied with standard validated methods--questionnaires, skin prick tests, methacholine bronchial challenge tests; dust bed sampling for analysis of mite antigens. RESULTS: In the ISAAC study, in the 13-14 year-old age group, statistical significant differences were found, with higher wheezing prevalence in Brazil than in Portugal (two-fold). In the Portuguese Study, atopy prevalence ranged between 6.0 and 11.9% in Sal and S. Vicente (Cape Verde), up to 48.6 and 54.1% in Macau and Madeira. Active asthma had the higher values in Madeira (14.6%), and the lower in Macau (1.3%). Cape Verde had intermediate asthma prevalence (10.6 and 7.0%). The bronchial challenge test was positive in 25, 66 and 70% of asthmatic children from Sal, S. Vicente and Madeira respectively. Significant HDM antigen concentrations (Der p1) were found in Cape Verde and Madeira. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant variations in asthma and atopy prevalence between these pediatric populations. The reasons remain under discussion, but genetics linked to race, seem to play a central role, modulated by environmental and lifestyle variables.