Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Pulmonary Hypertension in Portugal: First Data from a Nationwide Registry

Introduction. Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease that must be managed in specialized centers; therefore, the availability of epidemiological national data is critical. Methods. We conducted a prospective, observational, and multicenter registry with a joint collaboration from five centers from Portugal and included adult incident patients with PAH or chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). Results. Of the 79 patients enrolled in this study, 46 (58.2%) were classified as PAH and 33 patients (41.8%) as CTEPH. PAH patients had a mean age of 43.4 ± 16.4 years. Idiopathic PAH was the most common etiology (37%). At presentation, PAH patients had elevated right atrial pressure (RAP) (7.7 ± 5.9mmHg) and mean pulmonary vascular resistance (11.4 ± 6.5 Wood units), with a low cardiac index (2.7 ± 1.1 L⋅min−1 m−2); no patient was under selective pulmonary vasodilators; however, at follow-up, most patients were on single (50%), double (28%), or triple (9%) combination vasodilator therapy. One-year survival was 93.5%, similar to CTEPH patients (93.9%), that were older (60.0 ± 12.5 years) and had higher RAP (11.0 ± 5.2mmHg,