Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Distribution and Etiology of Chronic Respiratory Diseases in Primary Healthcare Departments in Cape Verde

Data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) are scarce or unavailable in most African countries. We aimed to determine the prevalence of CRD and associated risk factors in Cape Verde, at the primary healthcare level.

Decreasing Incidence and Changes in Serotype Distribution of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Persons Aged Under 18 Years Since Introduction of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Conjugate Vaccines in Portugal, July 2008 to June 2012

The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) became available in Portugal in mid-2009 and the 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) in early 2010. The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in patients aged under 18 years decreased from 8.19 cases per 100,000 in 2008–09 to 4.52/100,000 in 2011–12. However, IPD incidence due to the serotypes included in the 7-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in children aged under two years remained constant. This fall resulted from significant decreases in the number of cases due to: (i) the additional serotypes included in PCV10 and PCV13 (1, 5, 7F; from 37.6% to 20.6%), particularly serotype 1 in older children; and (ii) the additional serotypes included in PCV13 (3, 6A, 19A; from 31.6% to 16.2%), particularly serotype 19A in younger children. The decrease in serotype 19A before vaccination indicates that it was not triggered by PCV13 administration. The decrease of serotype 1 in all groups, concomitant with the introduction of PCV10, is also unlikely to have been triggered by vaccination, although PCVs may have intensified and supported these trends. PCV13 serotypes remain major causes of IPD, accounting for 63.2% of isolates recovered in Portugal in 2011–12, highlighting the potential role of enhanced vaccination in reducing paediatric IPD in Portugal.