Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

The Use of Statins in People at Risk of Developing Diabetes Mellitus: Evidence and Guidance for Clinical Practice

Reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels using statins is associated with significant reductions in cardiovascular (CV) events in a wide range of patient populations. Although statins are generally considered to be safe, recent studies suggest they are associated with an increased risk of developing Type 2 diabetes (T2D). This led the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to change their labelling requirements for statins to include a warning about the possibility of increased blood sugar and HbA1c levels and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to issue guidance on a small increased risk of T2D with the statin class. This review examines the evidence leading to these claims and provides practical guidance for primary care physicians on the use of statins in people with or at risk of developing T2D. Overall, evidence suggests that the benefits of statins for the reduction of CV risk far outweigh the risk of developing T2D, especially in individuals with higher CV risk. To reduce the risk of developing T2D, physicians should assess all patients for T2D risk prior to starting statin therapy, educate patients about their risks, and encourage risk-reduction through lifestyle changes. Whether some statins are more diabetogenic than others requires further study. Statin-treated patients at high risk of developing T2D should regularly be monitored for changes in blood glucose or HbA1c levels, and the risk of conversion from pre-diabetes to T2D should be reduced by intensifying lifestyle changes. Should a patient develop T2D during statin treatment, physicians should continue with statin therapy and manage T2D in accordance with relevant national guidelines.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Avaliação da Performance Cirúrgica: Como Fazer?

Assessment of surgical performance is a must for every surgical practice nowadays and can be done by using scientific methods imported mostly from the Quality control tools that have been in use for long in industry. Surgical performance comprises several dimensions including clinical activity (mortality and morbidity as end points), academic activities, research and, more and more, efficiency. Stable long time results (efficacy), reducing error (safety) and meeting patient expectations (patient satisfaction) are among other performance components. This paper focus on the precise definitions of mortality and morbidity related to surgical activities and on the tools to evaluate patient complexity and assess pre operative risk. Some graphic representations are suggested to compare performance profiles of surgeons and to define individual performance profiles. Strong emphasis is put on pre operative risk assessment and its crucial role to interpret divergent surgical results. Where risk assessment is not possible or is unavailable, observed / expected ratios (O/E) for a given endpoint , be it mortality, length of stay or morbidity, must be established and routinely used to refer results and to identify performance outliers. Morbidity is being pointed out as a most valuable performance indicator in surgery because it is sensitive and comprises efficiency, safety and quality, at large.

Genomic Signatures and Antiviral Drug Susceptibility Profile of A(H1N1)pdm09

Background: Genetic changes in influenza surface and internal genes can alter viral fitness and virulence. Mutation trend analysis and antiviral drug susceptibility profiling of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses is essential for risk assessment of emergent strains and disease management. Objective: To profile genomic signatures and antiviral drug resistance of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses and to discuss the potential role of mutated residues in human host adaptation and virulence. Study design: A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Portugal during pandemic and post-pandemic periods and 2009/2010 season. Viruses were isolated in MDCK-SIAT1 cell culture and subjected to mutation analysis of surface and internal proteins, and to antiviral drug susceptibility profiling. Results: The A(H1N1)pdm09 strains circulating during the epidemic period in Portugal were resistant to amantadine. The majority of the strains were found to be susceptible to oseltamivir and zanamivir, with five outliers to neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) identified. Specific mutation patterns were detected within the functional domains of internal proteins PB2, PB1, PA, NP, NS1, M1 and NS2/NEP, which were common to all isolates and also some cluster-specific. Discussion: Modification of viral genome transcription, replication and apoptosis kinetics, changes in antigenicity and antiviral drug susceptibility are known determinants of virulence. We report several point mutations with putative roles in viral fitness and virulence, and discuss their potential to result in more virulent phenotypes. Monitoring of specific mutations and genetic patterns in influenza viral genes is essential for risk assessing emergent strains, disease epidemiology and public health implications.

Coronary Revascularization Induces a Shift From Cardiac Toward Noncardiac Mortality Without Improving Survival in Vascular Surgery Patient

OBJECTIVE: Although evidence has shown that ischemic heart disease (IHD) in vascular surgery patients has a negative impact on the prognosis after surgery, it is unclear whether directed treatment of IHD may influence cause-specific and overall mortality. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic implication of coronary revascularization (CR) on overall and cause-specific mortality in vascular surgery patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm, carotid artery stenosis, or peripheral artery disease in a university hospital in The Netherlands between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1104 patients were included. Adjusted survival analyses showed that IHD significantly increased the risk of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.87) and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.76). Compared with those without CR, patients previously undergoing CR had similar overall mortality (HR, 1.38 vs 1.62; P = .274) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.83 vs 2.02; P = .656). Nonrevascularized IHD patients were more likely to die of IHD (6.9% vs 35.7%), whereas revascularized IHD patients more frequently died of cardiovascular causes unrelated to IHD (39.1% vs 64.3%; P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the significance of IHD for postoperative survival of vascular surgery patients. CR was associated with lower IHD-related death rates. However, it failed to provide an overall survival benefit because of an increased rate of cardiovascular mortality unrelated to IHD. Intensification of secondary prevention regimens may be required to prevent this shift toward non-IHD-related death and thereby improve life expectancy.

Long-Term Recurrence of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer after Topical Methylaminolevulinate Photodynamic Therapy in a Dermato-Oncology Department

BACKGROUND: Most available studies on the efficacy of topical photodynamic therapy focus on short-to medium-term results. Long-term data are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term efficacy of photodynamic therapy with topical methylaminolevulinate to treat Bowen's disease and basal cell carcinoma in the clinical practice setting of a dermato-oncology department. METHODS: The study included patients diagnosed with Bowen's disease or basal cell carcinoma, and who received photodynamic therapy from 2004 to 2008. Treatment protocol and clinical follow-up were standardized. The primary endpoint was clinically observed recurrence in a previous photodynamic therapy-treated area. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 31 Bowen's disease lesions and 44 superficial basal cell carcinoma were treated, with a median follow-up of 43.5 months. Recurrence was observed in 14 Bowen's disease lesions (53.8%) and in 11 superficial basal cell carcinoma (33.3%). Significantly higher estimates for recurrence rates were found in patients with Bowen's disease (p=0.0036) or those aged under 58 years (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with Bowen's disease than in those with superficial basal cell carcinoma and younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence should be considered when choosing to treat non-melanoma skin cancer with photodynamic therapy. Younger age and Bowen's disease were independent predictors for long-term recurrence, suggesting the need to establish an extended period of follow-up for this subset of patients.

The Intensive Care Global Study on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (IC-GLOSSARI): a Multicenter, Multinational, 14-Day Inception Cohort Study

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter, 14-day inception cohort study, we investigated the epidemiology, patterns of infections, and outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) as a result of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). METHODS: All patients admitted to one of 206 participating ICUs during two study weeks, one in November 2013 and the other in January 2014, were screened. SARI was defined as possible, probable, or microbiologically confirmed respiratory tract infection with recent onset dyspnea and/or fever. The primary outcome parameter was in-hospital mortality within 60 days of admission to the ICU. RESULTS: Among the 5550 patients admitted during the study periods, 663 (11.9 %) had SARI. On admission to the ICU, Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria were found in 29.6 and 26.2 % of SARI patients but rarely atypical bacteria (1.0 %); viruses were present in 7.7 % of patients. Organ failure occurred in 74.7 % of patients in the ICU, mostly respiratory (53.8 %), cardiovascular (44.5 %), and renal (44.6 %). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates in patients with SARI were 20.2 and 27.2 %, respectively. In multivariable analysis, older age, greater severity scores at ICU admission, and hematologic malignancy or liver disease were independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death, whereas influenza vaccination prior to ICU admission and adequate antibiotic administration on ICU admission were associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Admission to the ICU for SARI is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. We identified several risk factors for in-hospital death that may be useful for risk stratification in these patients.