Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

The Effect of Statins on Mortality in Septic Patients: a Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE: Statins are among the most prescribed drugs worldwide and their recently discovered anti-inflammatory effect seems to have an important role in inhibiting proinflammatory cytokine production, chemokines expression and counteracting the harmful effects of sepsis on the coagulation system. We decided to perform a meta-analysis of all randomized controlled trials ever published on statin therapy in septic patients to evaluate their effect on survival and length of hospital stay. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Articles were assessed by four trained investigators, with divergences resolved by consensus. BioMedCentral, PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of clinical trials were searched for pertinent studies. Inclusion criteria were random allocation to treatment and comparison of statins versus any comparator in septic patients. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data from 650 patients in 5 randomized controlled studies were analyzed. No difference in mortality between patients receiving statins versus control (44/322 [14%] in the statins group vs 50/328 [15%] in the control arm, RR = 0.90 [95% CI 0.65 to 1.26], p = 0.6) was observed. No differences in hospital stay (p = 0.7) were found. CONCLUSIONS: Published data show that statin therapy has no effect on mortality in the overall population of adult septic patients. Scientific evidence on statins role in septic patients is still limited and larger randomized trials should be performed on this topic.

Five-Year Review of an International Clinical Research-Training Program

The exponential increase in clinical research has profoundly changed medical sciences. Evidence that has accumulated in the past three decades from clinical trials has led to the proposal that clinical care should not be based solely on clinical expertise and patient values, and should integrate robust data from systematic research. As a consequence, clinical research has become more complex and methods have become more rigorous, and evidence is usually not easily translated into clinical practice. Therefore, the instruction of clinical research methods for scientists and clinicians must adapt to this new reality. To address this challenge, a global distance-learning clinical research-training program was developed, based on collaborative learning, the pedagogical goal of which was to develop critical thinking skills in clinical research. We describe and analyze the challenges and possible solutions of this course after 5 years of experience (2008-2012) with this program. Through evaluation by students and faculty, we identified and reviewed the following challenges of our program: 1) student engagement and motivation, 2) impact of heterogeneous audience on learning, 3) learning in large groups, 4) enhancing group learning, 5) enhancing social presence, 6) dropouts, 7) quality control, and 8) course management. We discuss these issues and potential alternatives with regard to our research and background.

The Role of Propranolol in the Treatment of Infantile Hemangioma

INTRODUCTION: Infantile hemangioma (IH) is one of the most common childhood tumors. There are various medical or surgical therapeutic options, all with suboptimal results. Recently, the successful use of propranolol for involution of IH was described. We report the results of a single-center experience with this therapeutic option. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the efficacy and safety of propranolol in children with infantile hemangioma. METHODS: We performed a prospective analysis of clinical data of all patients with IH referred to a pediatric cardiology center for baseline cardiovascular assessment prior to propranolol therapy. Propranolol was given at a starting dose of 1 mg/kg/day and titrated to a target dose of 2-3 mg/kg/day according to clinical response. Efficacy was assessed through a photograph-based severity scoring scale. Safety was assessed by collecting data regarding significant side effects. RESULTS: Starting in 2010, 30 patients (15 female) were referred for propranolol treatment of IH, at a median age of six months (1-63 months). The mean target propranolol dose was 2.8 mg/kg/day, with a mean duration of therapy of 12 months. All patients experienced significant reduction of IH size and volume. There were no side effects. CONCLUSIONS: In our experience propranolol appears to be a useful and safe treatment option for severe or complicated IH, achieving a rapid and significant reduction in their size. No adverse effects were observed, although until larger clinical trials are completed, potential adverse events should be borne in mind and consultation with local specialists is recommended prior to initiating treatment.

Economic Evaluation of Ticagrelor for Secondary Prevention Following Acute Coronary Syndromes

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of ticagrelor in the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndromes (unstable angina or myocardial infarction with or without ST-segment elevation), including patients treated medically and those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model were used to simulate the evolution of patients' life-cycles. Clinical effectiveness data were collected from the PLATO trial and resource use data were obtained from the Hospital de Santa Marta database, disease-related group legislation and the literature. RESULTS: Ticagrelor provides increases of 0.1276 life years and 0.1106 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient. From a societal perspective these clinical gains entail an increase in expenditure of €610. Thus the incremental cost per life year saved is €4780 and the incremental cost per QALY is €5517. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results show that ticagrelor reduces events compared to clopidogrel. The costs of ticagrelor are partially offset by lower costs arising from events prevented. The use of ticagrelor in clinical practice is therefore cost-effective compared to generic clopidogrel.

Clinical Outcomes and Genetic Expression Profile in Human Liver Graft Dysfunction During Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury

Introduction. This study aims to compare the molecular gene expression during ischemia reperfusion injury. Several surgical times were considered: in the beginning of the harvesting (T0), at the end of the cold ischemia period (T1), and after reperfusion (T2) and compared with graft dysfunction after liver transplant (OLT). Methods. We studied 54 patients undergoing OLT. Clinical, laboratory data, and histologic data (Suzuki classification) as well as the Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation (SOFT) score were used and compared with the molecular gene expression of the following genes: Interleukin (IL)-1b, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-a, perforin, E-selectin (SELE), Fas-ligand, granzyme B, heme oxygenase-1, and nitric oxide synthetase. Results. Fifteen patients presented with graft dysfunction according to SOFT criteria. No relevant data were obtained by comparing the variables graft dysfunction and histologic variables. We observed a statistically significant relation between SELE at T0 (P ¼ .013) and IL-1b at T0 (P ¼ .028) and early graft dysfunction. Conclusions. We conclude that several genetically determined proinflammatory expressions may play a critical role in the development of graft dysfunction after OLT.