Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Henoch-Schönlein Purpura Associated with Pulmonary Adenocarcinoma

Introduction: The Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) is an immunoglobulin A (IgA)-mediated smallvessel systemic vasculitis, rare in adults. The association with solid tumours has been described, especially with lung cancer. Case Report: We present the case of a 60-year-old Caucasian male, diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma that underwent surgical resection without (neo)adjuvant theraphy. Two months latter he was admitted for abdominal pain, purpuric rash on his lower extremities and acute kidney injury, with serum creatinine (Scr) of 2 mg/dl. Urinalysis revealed haematuria and 24h proteinuria (P24h) of 1.5 g. The serum protein electrophoresis, complement components C3 and C4, circulating immune complexes, cryoglobulins, ANCA, ANA, anti-dsDNA and the remaining immunologic study as screening for viral infections (HCV, HBV and HIV) were negative. Renal ultrasound was normal and kidney biopsy revealed mild mesangial proliferation; 2 cellular glomerular crescents and 1 fibrinoid necrosis lesion; large amounts of red blood cell casts; lymphocytic infiltration in the intertubular interstitial capillaries; moderate arteriolar hyalinosis. Immunofluorescence demonstrated mesangial and parietal deposits of IgA. The diagnosis of HSP was assumed, and the patient started prednisolone 1 mg/kg/day. Ten months after diagnosis the patient’s baseline Scr is 1.4 mg/dl with P24h of 0.18g, without haematuria. Conclusion: Although this is a rare association and the exact mechanism behind the disease is yet unknown, physicians should be aware of it. The early recognition and treatment may prevent renal disease progression.