Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Practice variations in the production of health

This study investigates three questions related to medical practice variation. First, it tests whether average length of stay across Portuguese National Health Service hospitals varies when controlling for differences in patients’ characteristics. Second, it looks at hospital-level characteristics in order to find out whether these are able to explain differences in average length of stay across hospitals. Finally, it proposes a best practice average length of stay for each of the six episodes of care analyzed. To perform the analysis, administrative data from the Diagnosis-Related groups’ data set for the year of 2012 was used. A replication of a hierarchical two-stage model with hospital fixed effects was carried out. The results show that after taking patients’ characteristics into account, variation in average length of stay across hospitals exists. This variation cannot be explained by hospital-level characteristics.