Futures of automobile industry and challenges on sustainable development and mobility

Portugal had only very few foresight exercises on the automobile sector, and the most recent one was a survey held in a project on work organisation systems in the automobile industry, its recent historical paths and the special strategies of location of companies (the WorTiS project). This involved several teams with different disciplinary backgrounds and from two Portuguese universities. The provisional main results of the first round of a Delphi survey held in Portugal on the automotive sector were already published, but a further analysis was not yet done. This foresight survey was done under the WorTiS project, developed in 2004 by IET – Research Centre on Enterprise and Work Innovation (at FCT-UNL), and financed by the Portuguese Ministry of Science and Technology. Some of this experience on foresight analysis is also been transferred to other projects, namely the WORKS project on work organisation restructuring in the knowledge society that received the support from EC and still is running. The majority of experts considered having an average of less knowledge in almost all the scenario topics presented. This means that information on the automotive industry is not spread enough among academics or experts in related fields (regional scientists, innovation economists, engineers, sociologists). Some have a good knowledge but in very specialised fields. Others have expertise on foresight, or macroeconomics, or management sciences, but feel insecure on issues related with futures of automobile sector. Nevertheless, we considered specially the topics where the experts considered themselves to have some knowledge. There were no “irrelevant” topics considered as such by the expert panel. There are also no topics that are not considered a need for co-operation. The lack of technological infrastructures was not considered as a hindered factor for the accomplishment of any scenario. The experts’ panel considered no other international competence besides US, Japan or Germany in these topics. Special focus will be made in this paper on the topic 2. Public policy and automobile industries, and more specifically on the technological and/or research policies issues, where one can specify the automobile’s role in transport policies with further implications like environment, safety, energy, mobility.

The most Portuguese village in Portugal: tradition in the age of its technical reproducibility

Ethnographic film is often associated with many European countries’ past as colonial powers and the way these countries used film to depict African, American and Asian territories and populations they once ruled. However, ethnographic film also has a European tradition of its own, closely interlaced with the history of ethnography and anthropology as autonomous sciences and with the desire of scholars to represent local, regional and national cultural identities. This paper presents a Portuguese attempt of this sort dating from 1938, when the authoritarian regime organized a national contest to determine which would be Portugal’s most “authentic” village – something other European countries also did. As part of this metonymic contribution to the construction of Portugal’s national identity as an agrarian utopia, a short documentary was shot, sponsored by the same official propaganda office that had organized the contest. In this film, the viewer’s gaze is made to coincide with the one of the national jury visiting the final selection of 12 villages and to whose benefit local scholars had organized all sorts of colourful peasant traditions hoping to cause the strongest impression. The film makes a strong case for the importance of ethnographic film as a relevant instance not only of the iteration of existing European national cultures, but also of the construction of so many of Europe’s national identities and traditions. Suffice to say that even today the village of “Monsanto”, which won the 1938 contest, is still referred to as “Portugal’s most Portuguese village”.

ZoomAzores project: implementation of a WebGIS for Nature and Adventure Tourism.

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Estimation Models for the adoption and use of information technology: internet-related technologies at firm level in the Portuguese and European context

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Estimação de Modelos de Adopção e Difusão de Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação em Portugal

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Da assistência aos pobres aos cuidados de saúde primários em Portugal : o papel da enfermagem : 1926-2002

RESUMO - Este estudo analisa a forma como os cuidados de saúde não hospitalares e a enfermagem comunitária, se desenvolveram e se influenciaram mutuamente, no período 1926-2002. Trata-se de um estudo histórico que recorre a fontes escritas, imagéticas e orais, e utiliza conceções do novo institucionalismo e os conceitos de poder e biopoder de Foucault, para investigar este processo. Apresenta e analisa as origens destes cuidados e da enfermagem comunitária, o modo como se institucionalizaram e como evoluíram. A criação e desenvolvimento dos cuidados de saúde não hospitalares foram acompanhados pela individualização da enfermagem comunitária. As políticas e práticas dos cuidados de saúde primários e da enfermagem comunitária apresentam uma clara dependência do percurso já realizado. A sua génese está ligada a práticas de caridade cristã de assistência aos mais pobres liderada pelas Misericórdias e ordens religiosas. O novo entendimento sobre o papel do Estado relativamente à saúde conduziu à criação de instituições não hospitalares e à diferenciação da enfermagem comunitária. Assinale-se como momentos positivos para enfermeiros e instituições a formação das visitadoras sanitárias, apoio à formação em saúde pública pela Fundação Rockefeller, a criação de instituições corporativas, privadas e públicas de cuidados não hospitalares, a reforma de 1971 e o movimento dos CSP. As políticas institucionais condicionaram o próprio desenvolvimento e o da enfermagem comunitária, devido aos estereótipos associados ao papel da mulher, à multiplicidade e disparidade de formações e às visões divergentes sobre o que era a enfermagem comunitária. Este processo de desenvolvimento entretecido entre enfermagem comunitária e CSP apresenta influências e contributos mútuos. Os cuidados de saúde não hospitalares proporcionaram aos enfermeiros formação, desenvolvimento profissional, oportunidade de uma intervenção diversificada e com elevado grau de autonomia. Já estes trouxeram aproximação à comunidade, atenção especial aos mais vulneráveis, criatividade, capacidade de adaptação perante condições adversas, contribuindo para a visibilidade e relevância afetiva dos CSP.

Attitude change in arbitrarily large organizations

The alignment of collective goals and individual behavior has been extensively studied by economists under a principal-agent framework. Two main solutions have been presented: explicit incentive contracts and monitoring. These solutions correspond to changes in the objective situation faced by individuals. However, an extensive literature in social psychology provides evidence that behavior is influenced, not only by situational constraints, but also by attitudes. Therefore, an important aspect of organization is to choose the structures and procedures that best contribute to the dissemination of the desired attitudes throughout the organization. This paper studies how the initial configuration of attitudes and the size of the organization affect the optimal organizational structure and the timing of information flows when the objective is to align the members' attitudes. We identify and characterize three factors that affect the optimal organizational structures and procedures and the degree of alignment of attitudes: (1) clustering effects; (2) member cross-influence effects; and (3) leader cross-influence effects.

Texts prepared for delivery at Paul Krugman's honorary doctorate by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012

Three texts were prepared for delivery at the first honorary doctorate awarded simultaneously by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012: an introduction, a lecture and a comment. The event included the award of member of the Lisbon Academy of Science (ACL) by Manuel Jacinto Nunes, dean of the economics and finance section of ACL who proposed his name and Olivier Blanchard’s on the 30th anniversary of James Tobin receiving an honorary doctorate from Nova University. On 24 February , Paul Krugman visited ACL and participated in a session of the project dubbed “Letter to the lusofonia Queen”. Since this project is promoted by Nova SBE’s Center for Globalization and Governance and has been featured in some of the graduate courses, a short note on the meeting is included in annex. On 15 June, the three universities authorized an edition in Portuguese and donated the copyrights to a student award on “Krugman economics”, in a way still to be determined by the editor. The lecture and the comment will be translated as soon as a suitable publisher is found. Since a lot of the teaching at Nova SBE is in English, it seemed appropriate to reproduce the original texts in the order in which they were presented. A lively question and answer period was also recorded by Nova TV and should be made available in the book, together with highlights of the media coverage. Introduced as a “militant economist”, he speaks about a crisis “his mind loves but does not let the heart forget the poor and the unemployed”. The Nobel prize winner described as a“progressist pessimist of the world economy” concludes with a severe indictment of the profession. “In normal times, when things are going pretty well, the world can function reasonably well without professional economic advice. It’s in times of crisis, when practical experience suddenly proves useless and events are beyond anyone’s normal experience, that we need professors with their models to light the path forward. And when the moment came, we failed”. The comment, by the official responsible for Paul Krugman’s mission to Portugal in 1976, contains an equally dire prediction: “I would very much like to see in the near future the weakening of the influence not only of freshwater economists but also of their conservative European followers. But I fear that this will not happen until we find ourselves in a more calamitous situation than at present”. Fortunately Silva Lopes closes in the hope “that the ideas of Paul Krugman will soon have more influence in policy makers than at present seems to be the case”.

Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

Under the veil of citations

Academics are often ranked on citation counts’, which is considered an adequate proxy for author's quality and reputation. This paper seeks to find what is behind a cited academic / a cited article. We constructed a rich dataset from Portuguese affiliated economists and use zero inflated negative binomial model. This procedure is appropriate for count outcomes, correcting for overdispersion and excess zeros. We also use a fixed effect poisson model to accomodate authors' unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze results in detail comparing with existing literature and making some theoretical considerations around.

Arshile Gorky: An Armenian in New York

Born in Armenia, the oldest Christian country in the world but nevertheless one of the youngest reinstated republics (1991) after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Arshile Gorky flew to the United States in 1920, where he chose to reinvent himself in the struggle to become an artist. This reinvention meant the creation of a persona with, or behind, which Gorky kept alive the artistic flame inside himself. Gorky became one of the most learned voices lecturing on contemporary European modernist artists and movements of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the United States (New York) without ever visiting Europe. Moreover, he was able to survive the traumatic events he underwent during the Armenian Genocide (1915-1919) to adapt to his new country and identity, to live through the years of the Depression and, eventually, to become the protagonistof a major artistic breakthrough. This paper proposes an insight into the experience of life and frame of work of this Armenian-American artist, whose simultaneously rich, traumatic, dislocated and reenacted life and work established one of the most fertile links between his middle‑eastern origins, his dreamed of Europe and the particular transit of his American artistic creation.