48 resultados para probabilistic risk


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The aim of this article is to characterize musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in EU working population according to available Eurostat data, to identify relevant risk factors and to refer existing legislation and standards to prevent MSDs. The following questions will be answered: How often do MSDs occur in EU? What are the risk factors? Do legislation and standards exist to prevent these disorders?

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The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

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Thesis submitted to the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia to obtain the Master’s degree in Environmental Engineering, profile in Ecological Engineering

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The Janssen-Cilag proposal for a risk-sharing agreement regarding bortezomib received a welcome signal from NICE. The Office of Fair Trading report included risk-sharing agreements as an available tool for the National Health Service. Nonetheless, recent discussions have somewhat neglected the economic fundamentals underlying risk-sharing agreements. We argue here that risk-sharing agreements, although attractive due to the principle of paying by results, also entail risks. Too many patients may be put under treatment even with a low success probability. Prices are likely to be adjusted upward, in anticipation of future risk-sharing agreements between the pharmaceutical company and the third-party payer. An available instrument is a verification cost per patient treated, which allows obtaining the first-best allocation of patients to the new treatment, under the risk sharing agreement. Overall, the welfare effects of risk-sharing agreements are ambiguous, and care must be taken with their use.

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Dissertation submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa for the achievement of Integrated Master´s degree in Industrial Management Engineering

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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RESUMO: O aumento da longevidade humana é um facto prevalente na actualidade mas, a requerer grandes esforços na promoção da saúde e prevenção de doenças, estando, ainda, as pessoas idosas sob riscos elevados de desenvolver doenças à medida que envelhecem. Assim, é importante o contributo dos próprios indivíduos no sentido minorar estes riscos e retardar a evolução e agudizações das doenças uma vez manifestadas. Nesse sentido, o objectivo geral deste estudo é descrever de que modo os conhecimentos do diabético, podem estar relacionados com a presença de complicações da doença. Realizámos um estudo exploratório descritivo, no Hospital Nossa Senhora do Rosário E.P.E, em pessoas idosas residentes no concelho do Barreiro que frequentaram o Hospital Dia de Diabetologia, após as consultas médicas e de enfermagem. O método utilizado para a selecção da amostra foi a amostragem não probabilística por conveniência (n=50). O instrumento utilizado na colheita de dados foi um questionário, aplicado sob a forma de inquérito, para colheita de dados sócio-demográficos, saúde em geral, estado mental, dados sobre a diabetes e comorbilidades. Os dados foram tratados informaticamente, recorrendo ao programa estatístico S.P.S.S. e a análise de conteúdo. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os participantes possuíam conhecimentos sobre a sua doença. Verificámos que os inquiridos que já tiveram complicações devido à diabetes responderam correctamente à questão acerca da medicação ser mais importante que a dieta e o exercício físico para controlar a diabetes, do que os que nunca tiveram complicações devido à diabetes, que responderam incorrectamente ou desconheciam a resposta à questão.----------- ABSTRACT: The increase in human longevity is a fact prevalent nowadays, but to require great efforts on health promotion and disease prevention and is also in the elderly high risk of developing illnesses as they age. It is therefore important contribution of the individuals themselves towards mitigating these risks and delaying the development and exacerbations of disease once manifested. Thus, the general purpose of this study is to describe how the knowledge of diabetes, may be related to complications of the disease. We conducted an exploratory study in the Hospital Nossa Senhora do Rosario EPE, in elderly people living in the county of Barry, who attended the hospital Diabetes Day, after the medical and nursing care. The method used for the sampling was not probabilistic by convenience sampling (n = 50). The instrument used for data collection was a questionnaire applied in the form of survey to collect socio-demographic data, general health, mental state, data on diabetes and comorbidities. The data were processed by computer, using the SPSS and content analysis. The results showed that participants had knowledge about their disease. We found that respondents who have had complications due to diabetes responded correctly to questions about the medication is more important than diet and exercise to control diabetes than those who never had complications due to diabetes, who answered incorrectly or did not know the answer the question.

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In developed countries, civil infrastructures are one of the most significant investments of governments, corporations, and individuals. Among these, transportation infrastructures, including highways, bridges, airports, and ports, are of huge importance, both economical and social. Most developed countries have built a fairly complete network of highways to fit their needs. As a result, the required investment in building new highways has diminished during the last decade, and should be further reduced in the following years. On the other hand, significant structural deteriorations have been detected in transportation networks, and a huge investment is necessary to keep these infrastructures safe and serviceable. Due to the significant importance of bridges in the serviceability of highway networks, maintenance of these structures plays a major role. In this paper, recent progress in probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures with emphasis on bridges is summarized. A novel model including interaction between structural safety analysis,through the safety index, and visual inspections and non destructive tests, through the condition index, is presented. Single objective optimization techniques leading to maintenance strategies associated with minimum expected cumulative cost and acceptable levels of condition and safety are presented. Furthermore, multi-objective optimization is used to simultaneously consider several performance indicators such as safety, condition, and cumulative cost. Realistic examples of the application of some of these techniques and strategies are also presented.

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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biology/ Molecular Biology