Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Lean construction in rehabilitation works – suitability analysis and contribution for the definition of an implementation model

Proceedings IGLC-19, July 2011, Lima, Perú

Men’s purchase intention of shampoo: a model based on the theory of planned behavior and self-concept

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Establishment and characterization of a human model of the blood-brain barrier

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade N ova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Improvement of Lipton’s business model through wholesalers and traditional supermarkets channel

Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

EcoTerra Model - application of environmental fiscal reform in local government financing in Portugal

Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation: International and Comparative Perspectives: Volume VI, 699-715

E-Health individual adoption - empirical model based on UTAUT 2.

The future of health care delivery is becoming more citizen-centred, as today’s user is more active, better informed and more demanding. The European Commission is promoting online health services and, therefore, member states will need to boost deployment and use of online services. This makes e-health adoption an important field to be studied and understood. This study applied the extended unified theory of acceptance and usage technology (UTAUT2) to explain patients’ individual adoption of e-health. An online questionnaire was administrated Portugal using mostly the same instrument used in UTAUT2 adapted to e-health context. We collected 386 valid answers. Performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and habit had the most significant explanatory power over behavioural intention and habit and behavioural intention over technology use. The model explained 52% of the variance in behavioural intention and 32% of the variance in technology use. Our research helps to understand the desired technology characteristics of ehealth. By testing an information technology acceptance model, we are able to determine what is more valued by patients when it comes to deciding whether to adopt e-health systems or not.

Oysters return to the Tagus estuary through an ecological model

Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of New University of Lisbon for obtaining the degree of Master in Environmental Management Systems

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The impact of global forces on the individual: empirical evidence from the German clothing industry

Starting from theoretical perspectives on globalisation, the following article analyses how current working conditions are affected by globalisation processes. For this purpose, recent developments in the German clothing sector are traced back to the power of economic globalisation processes. Characterising the German clothing sector as pioneer in economic globalisation, we use empirical findings to illustrate how current processes of globalisation influence the work place: At organisational level, corporate strategies aim at rationalisation, standardisation and flexibilisation of work in order to response to the economic pressure of global markets. At individual level these strategies, in turn, speed up working processes and intensify working processes for the employees. Although these developments form strong trends, we conclude that the local embeddedness of companies is still of high importance with regard to organisational and individual consequences of globalisation.

On the track of β-lactam resistance: Studies on the regulation of methicillinresistance in Staphylococcus aureus

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Biologia

Programas de cuidados integrados para pessoas com esquizofrenia ou perturbação esquizoafetiva : estudo sobre a exequibilidade, implementação e resultados de um programa de cuidados integrados para pessoas com esquizofrenia ou perturbação esquizoafectiva em Portugal

RESUMO: De acordo com o estado da arte, existem intervenções psicofarmacológicas, psicológicas e psicossocias, com evidência científica dos seus resultados, no tratamento de pessoas com esquizofrenia e perturbação esquizoafectiva. No entanto, muitos destes doentes, não procuram ajuda dos serviços de saúde mental, não recebem os referidos cuidados ou não são detectados nem seguidos por estes. Esta realidade levou ao desenvolvimento de programas integrados, intervenções e estudos mais específicos, nomeadamente para tentar ultrapassar os obstáculos na acessibilidade aos cuidados de saúde e na continuidade de seguimento destes doentes. No conjunto das dificuldades apuradas, as questões da exequibilidade (feasibility) e da implementação, têm tido particular relevo na literatura científica recente, bem como a melhor forma de vencer as respectivas barreiras e adaptar essas intervenções às varias realidades, culturas e recursos. Objectivos: Objectivos gerais:1) Avaliar a exequibilidade e a implementação inicial de um programa de cuidados integrados, para pessoas com esquizofrenia ou perturbação esquizoafectiva, no contexto clínico das equipas de saúde mental comunitárias de um departamento de psiquiatria do Serviço Nacional de Saúde, em Portugal, com os recursos materiais e humanos existentes; 2) Avaliar o impacto deste programa, nestes doentes e na respectiva prestação de cuidados de saúde mental. Metodologia. Elaborámos um programa de cuidados integrados (Programa Integrar) com base no modelo clínico de case management, com seguimento mantido e integrado. Cada doente passou a ter um terapeuta de referência, um plano individual de cuidados e manteve o seguimento com o seu psiquiatra assistente. Foram seleccionadas intervenções, nomeadamente, psicoeducativas, familiares, estratégias para lidar com os sintomas e a doença, prevenção de recaídas e intervenções para melhorar o funcionamento social e ocupacional. A estas intervenções foi sempre associado o tratamento psicofarmacológico. O estudo delineado incluiu dois componentes: avaliação da exequibilidade e implementação inicial do programa de cuidados integrados (componente A) e avaliação do impacto deste programa (componente B), através de um estudo de intervenção, prospectivo, naturalista, não aleatorizado e não ontrolado. A amostra do estudo resultou das sucessivas referenciações, para o Programa Integrar, de pessoas com os diagnósticos de esquizofrenia ou perturbação esquizoafectiva, seguidas nas cinco equipas de saúde mental comunitárias do Departamento de Psiquiatria do Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Ocidental, com uma área assistencial correspondente a uma população de, aproximadamente, 400 000 pessoas. Definimos etapas, estratégias, parâmetros e indicadores para o estudo da exequibilidade do programa. Efectuámos a monitorização e a avaliação de tarefas, procedimentos e intervenções recomendadas aos terapeutas de referência. Realizámos duas avaliações, uma no início do programa e outra após um ano de intervenção. Foram avaliadas as seguintes dimensões (com indicação do acrónimo do instrumento de avaliação utilizado entre parêntesis): psicopatologia (BPRS), depressão (MADRS), necessidades (CAN), incapacidade (DAS), actividade social e ocupacional (SOFAS), atitude em relação à medicação (DAI), insight (SAI), qualidade de vida (WHOQOL-S) e satisfação (POCS). Resultados: Dos 146 doentes que foram incluídos no estudo, 97 (66%) eram do sexo masculino e 49 (34%) do sexo feminino, com uma idade média de 36 anos. Destes oentes,116 (79,4%)tinham o diagnóstico (ICD10) de esquizofrenia e 30 (20,6%) de perturbação esquizoafectiva. Os restantes dados sociodemográficos eram típicos de populações afins em serviços de saúde mental nacionais. Do total de doentes (146) que iniciaram o estudo, 26 (18%) abandonaram o seguimento neste programa. Para o componente A da investigação (estudo de exequibilidade) salientamos: exerceram funções a totalidade (15) dos terapeutas de referência que receberam formação, 76 % efectuaram o número mínimo recomendado de sessões / ano por doente (≥18), 44,9 fizeram o número mínimo de sessões familiares pretendido (≥ 3). Nas intervenções mais específicas foram atingidos os objectivos em mais de 75% dos doentes, à excepção das intervenções domiciliárias (19,4%), prevenção do abuso de substâncias (45,4%) e do risco de suicídio (34,3%). O plano individual de cuidados foi realizado em 98 % dos doentes e em 38,9 % dos casos ocorreu a participação da família. Neste plano, a média de objectivos definidos foi de 5 e a média de objectivos atingidos correspondeu a 3 (p= 0,001). Na primeira avaliação, estavam a frequentar estruturas de reabilitação psicossocial 42 doentes (28,8%) e,12 meses após, esse número passou para 80 (74,1%).Também aumentou o número de doentes com actividade profissional a tempo completo, de 8 (7,4%) para 18 (16,7%). No componente B do estudo (avaliação do impacto do programa), em termos de psicopatologia, e para as pontuações médias globais do BPRS, ocorreu uma diminuição entre a primeira e a segunda avaliação (p=0,001), tal como nas subescalas: sintomas positivos (p=0,003), sintomas negativos (p=0,002), sintomas de mania (p=0,002) e sintomas de depressão/ansiedade (p=0,001). Na avaliação da depressão (p= 0,001) e da incapacidade (p=0,003), as diferenças foram significativas e favoráveis. O mesmo não sucedeu na atitude em relação à medicação (p=0,690) nem na escala de avaliação do insight (p=0,079). Em relação ao funcionamento social e ocupacional, qualidade de vida e satisfação dos doentes, ocorreu uma melhoria significativa da primeira para a segunda avaliação As necessidades sem resposta mais frequentes, na primeira avaliação, corresponderam aos itens: actividades diárias, contactos sociais, relações íntimas, relacionamento sexual, benefícios sociais, sintomas psicóticos, sofrimento psicológico, informação sobre a doença / tratamento e gestão/problemas de dinheiro. Para todos estes últimos nove itens, verificou-se uma diferença estatisticamente significativa, entre a primeira e a segunda avaliação, com diminuição destas necessidades, excepto nas relações íntimas, relacionamento sexual e nos problemas de dinheiro. Na distribuição dos três estados de necessidades, para todos os itens, diminuíram as necessidades sem resposta e as necessidades com resposta parcial e aumentaram as situações em que deixaram de se verificar necessidades relevantes. Dos resultados obtidos para outros indicadores clínicos e de utilização dos cuidados, será importante referir que na comparação do ano anterior com o ano em que decorreu o programa, o número de doentes da amostra internados diminuiu 64,1%, bem como a média do número de internamentos (p=0,001). Em relação à duração dos internamentos, no ano anterior ao programa, os 39 doentes internados, tiveram um total de dias de internamento de 1522, sendo que, no ano do programa, para os 14 doentes internados, o total foi de 523 dias. Em termos absolutos, ocorreu uma redução de 999 dias (menos 65,6% dias). Também se verificou uma diminuição de 45,6 % de recaídas (p=0,001).Discussão e conclusões A exequibilidade do programa de cuidados integrados permitiu a aplicação do modelo clínico de case management, com seguimento mantido e integrado, através do qual cada doente passou a ter um terapeuta de referência assim como, em 98% casos, um plano individual de cuidados. As famílias continuaram a ser o principal suporte para os doentes, mas surgiram dificuldades quando se pretendeu uma participação mais activa destas no tratamento.A diminuição do número e da duração dos internamentos constituíram importantes resultados com implicações não só em termos clínicos mas também económicos. Os valores obtidos, para as diferentes variáveis, também sugerem o impacto favorável do Programa Integrar a nível da psicopatologia, das necessidades, da incapacidade, do funcionamento social e ocupacional, da qualidade de vida e da satisfação dos doentes. O mesmo não sucedeu para o insight e para a mudança de atitudes dos doentes em relação à medicação, resultados que devem ser igualmente considerados em futuros reajustamentos deste programa ou no desenvolvimento de novos programas. Como principais conclusões podemos referir que: 1) Foi possível a exequibilidade de um programa de cuidados integrados inovador e a implementação inicial desse programa, para doentes com esquizofrenia ou perturbação esquizoafectiva, com os recursos humanos e materiais existentes, no contexto clínico das equipas de saúde mental comunitárias, de um departamento de psiquiatria e saúde mental, em Portugal; 2) Na avaliação do impacto do programa, os resultados obtidos indiciam potencialidades de aplicação, deste programa de cuidados integrados, com vista à melhoria clínica e psicossocial destes doentes. Devem ser realizados estudos de replicação, ou complementares à presente investigação, no entanto, os dados obtidos são encorajadores para o desenvolvimento de programas similares, a nível nacional e internacional, que possam beneficiar um grupo mais alargado de doentes.------------ABSTRACT: Although there are psychological and psychosocial interventions well supported by scientific evidence, which show benefit when combined with psychopharmacological treatments, we know that a significant number of people with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders, do not seek help from mental health services, do not receive the care mentioned and are not detected or followed-up by them. This reality led to the development of integrated programs, interventions and more specific studies, to try to overcome the obstacles in the accessibility to the health services and on the follow-up of these patients. Amongst the barriers identified, feasibility and implementation of those programs have been of special relevance in recent scientific literature, as well as the best way to overcome such difficulties and adapt the interventions to the various realities, cultures and resources. Objectives: General objectives were defined: 1) Assessment of the feasibility and initial implementation of an integrated care program, for people with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, in the clinical setting of community mental health teams, in a psychiatric department from the national health service in Portugal; 2) Impact evaluation of the integrated care program, for these patients and their mental health care delivery. Methods: We drew up an integrated care program (Program Integrar) based on the clinical case management model, with continuous and integrated follow-up. Each patient got one case manager, an individual care plan and kept the same psychiatrist. Were selected the appropriated interventions, namely: psycho-educative, family-based interventions, strategies for dealing with the symptoms and the disorder, relapse prevention and interventions to improve social and occupational functioning. These interventions were always associated with psychopharmacological treatment. The investigation was outline with two parts: assessment of the feasibility and initial implementation of the Program Integrar (part A of the study) and impact evaluation of the program (part B of the study). We designed a naturalistic, prospective, intervention study, non-randomized and without control group. Our chosen sample was made with successive referrals of patients with the diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, followedup in one of the five community mental health teams of the Psychiatric Department of Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Ocidental, with a catchment area for a population of about 400 000 people. Different stages, strategies, criteria and indicators for studying the feasibility of the program and its implementation were set and the tasks, procedures and recommended interventions of the case managers were monitored and evaluated. We did two assessments with an interval of one year and we evaluated the following dimensions (the acronym of the assessment instrument used in brackets): psychopathology (BPRS), depression (MADRS), needs (CAN), disability (DAS), social and occupational functioning (SOFAS), attitude toward medication (DAI), insight (SAI), quality of life (WHOQOL-S) and satisfaction (POCS). Results: Of the 146 patients who started the study, 97 (66%) were male and 49 (34%) females with a mean age of 36 years. Of these, 116 (79,4%) were diagnosed (ICD10) with schizophrenia and 30 (20,6%) with schizoaffective disorder. The other socio-demographic data were typical of populations within Portuguese mental health services. Of all patients (146), who started the program, 26 (18%) of patients left the program (program dropout rate). Of the regarding part A of the study, which focused on feasibility, the following is of note: all professionals who had been trained for this purpose (15) acted as case manager, 76% did the recommended minimum number of sessions / year per patient (≥18) and 44,9% did the minimum number of family sessions desired (≥ 3). For the more specific interventions the parameters set out were met for more than 75% of patients, with the exception of domiciliar interventions (19.4%), prevention of substance abuse (45.4%) and suicide risk prevention(34.3%). The individual care plan was done for 98% of patients and in 38,9% of cases this involved family participation. For this plan the mean objectives defined were 5 and in average was achieved 3 (p=0,001). On the first assessment, 42 patients (28.8%) were attending psychosocial rehabilitation structures and 12 months later that number rose up to 80 (74,1%). Regarding their employment status, in the first assessment 8 (7,4%) were in full time employment and in the second evaluation the number rise to 18 (16,7%). For part B of the study (impact program evaluation), in terms of psychopathology, global mean scores for the BPRS, decreased (p=0,001), as did the four sub scales: positive symptoms (p=0,003); negative symptoms (p=0,002); manic symptoms (p=0,002) and symptoms of depression/anxiety (p=0,001). Both in the evaluation of depression (p=0,001), as in the assessment of disability (p=0,003), the differences were significant. However, this was not the case with attitudes towards medication (p=0,690) and with insight evaluation (p=0,079). In relation to social and occupational functioning, quality of life and patient satisfaction there was a statistically significant improvement from the first to the second assessment. The most commonly unmet needs in the first assessment were daily activities, social contacts, intimate relationships, sexual relations, social benefits, psychotic symptoms,psychological distress, information about the disorder / treatment and money problems money management. Of these, in the second assessment, all of those nine unmet needs showed significant improvement, excepted intimate relationships, sexual relations and Money problems / money management. In the distribution of the three states of needs for all items, it happened a decreased in unmet needs and partially met needs and increased in the situations where relevant needs were no longer found. For other clinical indicators it is important to note, when we compared the year prior to this program and the year after, there were fewer hospitalizations (reduction of 64,1% of admissions) and in the mean number of admissions (p=0,001). Regarding the length of hospitalization in the year prior to the program, the 39 patients admitted had a total of 1522 hospital days, and in the year of the program for the 14 hospitalized patients, the total was 523 days. In absolute terms, there was a reduction of 999 days (65,6%). There was also a 45,6% reduction of relapses (p = 0,001). Discussion and Conclusions: The feasibility of the integrated care program allowed the application of the clinical case management model, with continuous follow-up. Each patient got a case manager and in 98% of the cases they also got an individual plan of care. Families continued to be the main support for patients but, difficulties occurred when it was claimed a more active participation. The decrease in the number and duration of admissions were important findings with implications not only in clinical terms but also in economic field. The achieved results for the different variables can also indicate the favorable impact of this program, at the level of psychopathology, needs, disability, social and occupationa functioning, quality of life and patient satisfaction. The same did not happen for the evaluation of insight and in the changes of attitudes towards medication. These data should also be considered for future readjustments of this program and for the developing of new programs.Finally, the two-overview conclusions are: 1) It was possible the feasibility of an integrated care program and initial implementation of this innovative program, for patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, with the human and material resources available in the clinical context of the community mental health teams, in a psychiatry and mental health department of the national health service in Portugal; 2) In assessing the impact of the program, the results suggest potential application of this integrated care program, to improve clinical state and psychosocial variables for these patients. There should be done studies to replicate these results, however the results obtained are promising for the development of similar programs at nationally and internationally level, that could benefit a wider group of patients.

Real-time collaborative editing of OutSystems DSL models

Real-time collaborative editing systems are common nowadays, and their advantages are widely recognized. Examples of such systems include Google Docs, ShareLaTeX, among others. This thesis aims to adopt this paradigm in a software development environment. The OutSystems visual language lends itself very appropriate to this kind of collaboration, since the visual code enables a natural flow of knowledge between developers regarding the developed code. Furthermore, communication and coordination are simplified. This proposal explores the field of collaboration on a very structured and rigid model, where collaboration is made through the copy-modify-merge paradigm, in which a developer gets its own private copy from the shared repository, modifies it in isolation and later uploads his changes to be merged with modifications concurrently produced by other developers. To this end, we designed and implemented an extension to the OutSystems Platform, in order to enable real-time collaborative editing. The solution guarantees consistency among the artefacts distributed across several developers working on the same project. We believe that it is possible to achieve a much more intense collaboration over the same models with a low negative impact on the individual productivity of each developer.

Development of process control strategies exploiting knowledge from systems biology: application to MDCK suspension cells

Madine Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell lines have been extensively evaluated for their potential as host cells for influenza vaccine production. Recent studies allowed the cultivation of these cells in a fully defined medium and in suspension. However, reaching high cell densities in animal cell cultures still remains a challenge. To address this shortcoming, a combined methodology allied with knowledge from systems biology was reported to study the impact of the cell environment on the flux distribution. An optimization of the medium composition was proposed for both a batch and a continuous system in order to reach higher cell densities. To obtain insight into the metabolic activity of these cells, a detailed metabolic model previously developed by Wahl A. et. al was used. The experimental data of four cultivations of MDCK suspension cells, grown under different conditions and used in this work came from the Max Planck Institute, Magdeburg, Germany. Classical metabolic flux analysis (MFA) was used to estimate the intracellular flux distribution of each cultivation and then combined with partial least squares (PLS) method to establish a link between the estimated metabolic state and the cell environment. The validation of the MFA model was made and its consistency checked. The resulted PLS model explained almost 70% of the variance present in the flux distribution. The medium optimization for the continuous system and for the batch system resulted in higher biomass growth rates than the ones obtained experimentally, 0.034 h-1 and 0.030 h-1, respectively, thus reducing in almost 10 hours the duplication time. Additionally, the optimal medium obtained for the continuous system almost did not consider pyruvate. Overall the proposed methodology seems to be effective and both proposed medium optimizations seem to be promising to reach high cell densities.