Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

GIS capacity building for risk management to help developing countries:Case of climate change problem in Amhara rural region (Ethiopia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Proteger a saúde das alterações climáticas na Região de Lisboa e Vale do

RESUMO - Face ao interesse crescente sobre os efeitos na saúde resultantes das alterações climáticas em curso, particularmente no que concerne aos fenómenos meteorológicos extremos, o presente trabalho visa sistematizar os conhecimentos científicos baseados na evidência já existentes, relativamente a esses efeitos na saúde, actuais e projectados, particularizando os desafios que tal situação apresenta para os serviços de saúde da Região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. São analisados os principais aspectos relativos aos potenciais efeitos das alterações climáticas na saúde dos indivíduos e das populações da Região, identificados os grupos populacionais mais em risco e realçados os aspectos que podem potenciar possíveis desigualdades em saúde. Termina-se com um enquadramento de orientações práticas sobre acções específicas que podem ser tomadas agora, a diferentes níveis, para preparar os serviços de saúde da Região em ordem à protecção dos cidadãos dos efeitos na saúde resultantes das alterações climáticas, sabendo-se que os efeitos adversos são largamente preveníveis. O presente trabalho deve suscitar uma reflexão sobre o impacto das alterações climáticas na saúde da população da Região, com as consequências que daí podem advir para os serviços de saúde, designadamente em termos do aumento da afluência dos cidadãos que, sendo mais vulneráveis, poderão adoecer e/ou ver agravadas situações de saúde pré- -existentes no decurso de fenómenos meteorológicos extremos súbitos.--------------------------ABSTRACT – Given the growing interest in the health effects from climate change, namely in what extreme weather events are concerned, this article aims to systematize the already existing evidencebased scientific knowledge concerning those actual and forecasted effects. This health services challenge is focused on the Region of Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. The main issues concerning the potential effects on individuals and populations of the Region are analyzed, the most at risk population groups are identified and the issues leading to health inequalities are highlighted. A framework about practical guidelines concerning specific actions to be taken at different levels is presented in order to prepare Region health services to protect citizens from health effects of climate changes, as it is known that adverse health effects are largely preventable. This study should promote a reflection on the impact of climate change on Regional health, namely about the rising demand on health services by more vulnerable patients, who can become ill and/or ag

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

The Media Online and the Climate Change

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Novos Media e Práticas Web

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Human and climatic change impact modelling on the habitat suitability for the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) – Case study: The proposed Mount Cameroon National Park

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Influence of abiotic stress factors on VOCs emission from Portuguese rice paddy fields: relation with increased climate change

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente Perfil de Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Integrated approach to assess vulnerability of the Coastal Region of Bangladesh due to climate change

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.