Evaluation of Spatial interpolation techniques for mapping climate variables with low sample density: a case study using a new gridded dataset of Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Castor fiber na gruta do Caldeirão. Existência, distribuição e extinção do castor em Portugal

Beaver only had been found in Portugal in a Chalcolithic locality, the Vila Nova de S. Pedro castrum. It has now been identified in the Upper Paleolithic (Solutrean) from Gruta do Caldeirão, near Tomar. The species has been found recently at «Gruta do Almonda»; 4 teeth were collected in bed C, older than a Solutrean sequence (see Anexo for details). The species seems to have been rare, as it was also the case with portuguese Miocene Castoridae Enroxenomys minutus and Chalicomys jaegeri. If account is taken of the presence in the Middle Ages until Castille of words meaning beaver (relared to the popular latin Fiber/Biber), it is obvious that these animais still existed then. Such nouns were largely predominant over rhe rather erudite latin (greek deríved) words as Castor,-óris and derived ones, as it could be expected. This allowed us to recognize that veiro should be the corresponding word with Fiber affinities in archaic portuguese. It was previously supposed to mean only expensive furs then imported into Portugal. Indeed it was also a zoonym. Anywày, beaver should be scarce by XIIIth century since it is not included in the quite detailed price list imposed by the «Lei da Almotaçaria» from December 26, 1253 (see Quadro II). Toponyms in veiro and derived words (fig. 2; Quadro III) (plural, feminines, diminutives, inhabited places) give a resrrictive view of rhe Middle Age distribution. Some of them are certainly older than Portugal itself (firsr half of XIlth cenrury); others existed by the XIVth century bur were probably older. Some rare toponyms seem to be derived from the erudite latin Castor,-óris. Nothing suggests that these words were still in use as zoonyms during the Middle Ages. All toponyms are located in regions near rivers and other freshwaters ecologically suitable for beavers, so we can approximately retrace its former, Middle Age disrribution in Portugal (fig. 2; Quadro III). Most of them are locared in the Center-West and Northwest of Portugal, with a suitable c1imate (rainfall in general over 800 mílimerers per year); the only sure geographical exception is Veiros, in Alto Alentejo province, in a region with comparable precipitations and less dry climate conditions than mosr of the territories South of rhe Tagus. There are less and less of these toponyms towards rhe South and the inner part of the country, and they are enrirely lacking in all drier regions from Trás-os-Montes, Beira, Alentejo beyond Tagus' basin, and in Algarve. Nothing suggests beavers lived there, No post-medieval toponym is known, nor any reference after middle XVth century. No such locality was at, or close by to, any frontier. Hence the hypothesis of veiro (et al.} as meaning but points where expensive furs (supposedly known as veiros in general but without c1early saying from what animal they were obrained from) is to be discarded. During the Middle Ages, beaver discriburion concerned all the main river basins from Minho to Tagus ones. Quite rarefied in rhe XIIIth, the beavers may have disappeared from Portugal during the XVth century. Ecological requiremenrs restricted their former distriburion. Vulnerability to natural causes (i.e., severe drought) and to human pressure may have accounted heavily for this species' extinction. Last (1446) reference for Portugal known to us suggests the species was by then almost extinct.

Castor fiber na gruta do Caldeirão Existência, distribuição e extinção do castor em Portugal

Beaver only had been found in Portugal in a Chalcolithic locality, the Vila Nova de S. Pedro castrum. It has now been idenrified in the Upper Paleolithic (Solurrean) from Gruta do Caldeirão, near Tomar. The species has been found recently at «Gruta do Almonda»; 4 teeth were collected in bed C, older than a Solutrean sequence (see Anexo for details). The species seems to have been rare, as it was also the case with portuguese miocene Castoridae Enroxenomys minutus and Chalicomys jaegeri. If account is taken of the presence in the Middle Ages until Castille of words meaning beaver (related to the popular latin Fiber/Biber), it is obvious that these animals still existed then. Such nouns were largely predominant over the rather erudite larin (greek derived) words as Castor, -óris and derived ones, as it could be expected. This allowed us to recognize that veiro should be the corresponding word with Fiber affinities in archaic portuguese. It was previously supposed to mean only expensive furs then imported into Portugal. Indeed it was also a zoonym. Anyway, beaver should be scarce by XIIIth century since it is not included in the quite detailed price list imposed by the «Lei da Almotaçaria» from December 26, 1253 (see Quadro II). Toponyms in veiro and derived words (fig. 2; Quadro III) (plural, feminines, diminutives, inhabited places) give a restrictive view of the Middle Age distribution. Some of them are certainly older than Portugal itself (first half of XIIth century); others existed by the XIVth century but were probably older. Some rare toponyms seem to be derived from rhe erudite latin Castor, -óris. Nothing suggests that these words were still in use as zoonyms during the Middle Ages. All toponyms are located in regions near rivers and other freshwaters ecologically suitable for beavers, so wecan approximately retrace irs former, Middle Age distribution in Portugal (fig. 2; Quadro III). Most of them are located in the Center-West and Northwest of Portugal, with a suitable c1imate (rainfall in general over 800 milimeters per year); the only sure geographical exception is Veiros, in Alto Alentejo province, in a region with comparable precipitations and less dry climare conditions than most of the territories South of the Tagus. There are less and less of these toponyms towards the South and the inner part of the country, and they are enrirely lacking in ali drier regions from Trás-os-Montes, Beira, Alentejo beyond Tagus' basin, and in Algarve. Nothing suggests beavers lived there, No pose-medieval toponym is known, nor any reference after middle XVth century. No such locality was at, or close by to, any frontier. Hence the hypothesis of veiro (e: al.) as meaning but points where expensive furs(supposedly known as veiros in general but without clearly saying from what animal they were obtained from) is to be discarded. During the Middle Ages, beaver distribution concerned all the main river basins from Minho to Tagus ones. Quice racefied in the XIIIth, the beavers may have disappeared from Portugal during the XVth century. Ecological requirements restricted their former distribution. Vulnerability to natural causes (i.e., severe drought) and to human pressure may have accounted heavily for this species extinction. Last (1446) reference for Portugal known to us suggests the species was by then almost extinct.

Spatial and temporal analysis of recent drought using vegetation temperature condition index: case of Somali regional state of Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Spatial-temporal analyses of climate elements, vegetation characteristics and sea surface temperature anomaly. A Case study in Gojam, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Using GIS to map the spatial and temporal occurrence of cholera epidemic in Camaroon

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Cost efficiency in the Portuguese water sector: The case of multimunicipal systems operating at the bulk level

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics