Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

As práticas comerciais desleais

The following study aims to examine a controversial and relatively unexplored subject within our system: the legal framework on unfair business-to-consumer commercial practices. Given the fact that this subject is based on the Directive 2005/29/EC, we considered to be appropriate to explore, firstly, the background and origin of such normative instrument. Nevertheless, we have centered our analysis on the interpretation of the set rules established by the Portuguese legal system (Law nr 57/2008, March 26th). For this dissertation, we have proposed a model of tripartite approach. Chapter V seeks to shed light on the general clause by analyzing a set of open concepts such as professional diligence, honest market practice, good faith or material distortion of the consumer’s economic behavior. In chapter VI, we will focus on two common types of unfair commercial practices: misleading and aggressive practices. Finally, due to the fact that chapter VII deals with the black list, we have illustrated the listed practices by giving real life examples. Taking into account the indefinite concepts used in the general prohibition and in the misleading and aggressive clauses, it is particularly difficult to demonstrate the unfairness of the professional’s behavior. In the light of this information, we have concluded that the regime fails on achieving its main goal: it does not protect proper and effectively the consumer’s interests.