Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Location analysis of city sections: socio-demographic segmentation and restaurant potentiality estimation : a case study of Lisbon

One of the objectives of this study is to perform classification of socio-demographic components for the level of city section in City of Lisbon. In order to accomplish suitable platform for the restaurant potentiality map, the socio-demographic components were selected to produce a map of spatial clusters in accordance to restaurant suitability. Consequently, the second objective is to obtain potentiality map in terms of underestimation and overestimation in number of restaurants. To the best of our knowledge there has not been found identical methodology for the estimation of restaurant potentiality. The results were achieved with combination of SOM (Self-Organized Map) which provides a segmentation map and GAM (Generalized Additive Model) with spatial component for restaurant potentiality. Final results indicate that the highest influence in restaurant potentiality is given to tourist sites, spatial autocorrelation in terms of neighboring restaurants (spatial component), and tax value, where lower importance is given to household with 1 or 2 members and employed population, respectively. In addition, an important conclusion is that the most attractive market sites have shown no change or moderate underestimation in terms of restaurants potentiality.

Estimation and hypothesis testing in mixed linear models

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Matemática, Estatística, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants

In this paper, the determinants of growth of aggregate health expenditures are investigated. The study departs from previous literature in that it looks at differences across countries in growth (and not levels) of health care expenditures. Estimation is made for 24 OECD countries. Health system characteristics usually believed to influence health expenditures growth, like population ageing, the type of health system (public reimbursement, public contract or integrate) and existence of gatekeepers, are found to be non-significant. Nevertheless, there is evidence that health expenditures experienced a clear slower growth in the last decade. The explanation for this slowdown could not be found in the proposed model and should stimulate further research.

Estimation of vegetation carbon stock in Portugal using land use/ land cover data

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Problèmes posés par la population sporo-pollinique d'un niveau à plantes de la série de Buarcos (Portugal)

L'analyse pollinique des sédiments argileux, riches en macrorestes de végétaux, du "Belasien» (Crétacé inférieur) de Buarcos a permis reconnaître la présence d'une riche microflore. On a, nottament, reconnu la présence de: Concavisporites punctatus, Auritulinosporites complexis, Chomotriletes sp., Trilobosporites cf. bernissartensis, Apiculatisporites vulgaris, Cicatricosisporites sp. 1, Cicatricosisporites sp. 2. Cicatricosisporites sp. 3, Cicatricosisporites sp. 4, Cicatricosisporites sp. 5, Cicatricosisporites sp. 6. Costatoperforosporites fistulosus, Ceratosporites sp. l, C. cf. equalis, Ischyosporites teixeirae n. sp., Liburnisporites sp. AequitriraditeS cf. spinulosus, Cedripites lusitanicus, Clavatipollenites cf. hughesi. Après discution de la stratigraphie des diffèrentes espèces on sugère une âge barremo-aptien pour cette association malgré la présence de l'ensemble Apiculalisporites vulgaris-Classopollls major plutôt d'âge Aptien.

O impacto económico da obesidade em Portugal : custos directos com internamento

RESUMO - A prevalência da obesidade não teve alterações significativas em Portugal. Uma vez que os recursos são escassos e é cada vez mais premente distribuí-los de forma racional, torna-se importante conhecer o impacto económico da obesidade para o país e perceber se os custos se alteraram. Objectivo: Actualizar, à luz de evidência mais recente, a estimativa dos custos directos com internamento hospitalar atribuíveis à obesidade, em Portugal, no ano 2008. Metodologia: Foi estimado o custo directo da obesidade, na componente internamento, a partir da metodologia custo da doença, utilizando uma abordagem baseada na prevalência. Os dados da prevalência advém do estudo epidemiológico mais recente em Portugal (14,4%). Os valores de risco relativo utilizados provêm da meta análise epidemiológica mais completa. Foi calculado, a partir destes dados, o risco atribuível populacional (RAP) de cada patologia. Através da base de dados nacional dos episódios de internamento, fez-se uma pesquisa de todos os episódios de internamento relativos às comorbilidades associadas à obesidade e aplicou-se o respectivo RAP. Com base na portaria n.º 839-A/2009 de 31 Julho atribuíramse os custos. Resultados: Os custos directos com a obesidade, na componente internamento, no ano 2008 foram de 85,9 milhões de euros, o que corresponde a 0,92% da despesa total em saúde. Os três maiores contribuintes para esta despesa são as patologias do sistema circulatório e cerebrovascular, a osteoartrite e os episódios relativos ao tratamento da obesidade em si. Conclusões: O impacto económico relativo ao internamento da obesidade diminuiu em Portugal. Este estudo surge então, como ponto de partida para estudar os custos totais com a obesidade e a efectividade das estratégias de prevenção.

Estimation Models for the adoption and use of information technology: internet-related technologies at firm level in the Portuguese and European context

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Update on the population structure of MRSA causing infection in a central hospital and in healthcare centers in Portugal

RESUMO:Staphylococcus aureus é um dos principais agentes patogénicos humanos, sendo frequentemente associado a infecções nosocomiais e infecções na comunidade. A prevalência de S. aureus resistentes à meticilina (MRSA) em hospitais portugueses é uma das mais elevadas da Europa e tem sido caracterizada extensivamente; contrariamente, a prevalência e epidemiologia de MRSA na comunidade em Portugal não tem sido devidamente seguida. Com o objectivo de compreender as causas possíveis do aumento na frequência de MRSA num dos maiores hospitais centrais portugueses (HSM) ao longo de 17 anos, isolados de MRSA recolhidos em 1993 (n=54) e 2010 (n=180) de pus, sangue e urina foram analisados por PFGE, MLST, tipagem do spa e tipagem de SCCmec. Os resultados mostraram que ocorreu uma mudança global nos tipos clonais predominantes, onde o clone ST22-IVh substituiu os clones, ST239-IIIvar e ST247-I, representando mais de 70% da população actual. Além disso, entre 1993 e 2010 verificou-se um aumento na diversidade genética dos tipos clonais de MRSA. Para determinar a frequência e a natureza clonal de MRSA e S. aureus sensíveis à meticilina (MSSA) isolados de infecções de pele e tecidos moles (SSTI) em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal, 73 amostras foram recolhidas em nove centros de saúde (Rede Médicos Sentinela). Isolou-se um total de 40 S. aureus (55%), dos quais 17,5% eram MRSA. Os isolados de MRSA pertenciam aos clones ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) e ST105-II (n=1), que foram descritos neste estudo como sendo clones de origem hospitalar. Os nossos resultados sugerem que o aumento da frequência de MRSA no HSM pode estar associado à emergência de um clone de MRSA com maior capacidade epidémica. Além disso, verificámos que a principal causa de SSTI em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal são MRSA de origem hospitalar e não MRSA associados à comunidade.------ABSTRACT: Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most important human pathogens, being a major cause of infections worldwide both in the hospital and in the community. In Portugal, the prevalence of methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in hospitals is one of the highest in Europe and has been characterized extensively; contrarily the prevalence and epidemiology of MRSA in the community has not been followed in a meaningful way. To understand the epidemiological events that could explain a steep increase in MRSA frequency in a major Portuguese central hospital (HSM) within a 17 year period, two MRSA collections recovered in 1993 (n=54) and 2010 (n=180) from pus, blood and urine were analyzed by PFGE, MLST, spa and SCCmec typing. The results showed that a major clonal shift occurred, wherein ST22-IVh clone has replaced the previous ST239-IIIvar and ST247-I clones and accounts for more than 70% of the present population. Moreover, an increase in genetic diversity of MRSA clonal types was observed between the two study periods. With the aim of determining the frequency and clonal nature of MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) causing skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in patients attending healthcare centers in Portugal, 73 samples were collected from nine healthcare centers (Medicos Sentinela Network). A total of 40 S. aureus were isolated, accounting for 55% of the SSTI, of which 17.5% were MRSA. MRSA isolates belonged to ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) and ST105-II (n=1) that have also been described in the hospital in an equivalent period. Our results suggest that the increase in MRSA frequency in HSM may be associated to the emergence of a MRSA clone with higher epidemic potential. Moreover, we propose that the spillover of MRSA from the hospital rather than community-associated-MRSA was the main cause of SSTI in persons attending healthcare centers in Portugal.

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Micropollutant bioremoval in wastewater treatment systems: from microbial population structure to function

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

The Evolution of Population Distribution on the Iberian Peninsula: A Transnational Approach (1877–2001)

Surpassing the national perspective usually adopted, the authors confirmed the existence of a pattern of population distribution common to the whole Iberian Peninsula in the long run. This pattern is clearly associated with geographical factors. These variables seem to have more weight in explaining changes between 1877/78 and 1940 than in the period from 1940 to 2001. The observation of the cross-border region has shown that proximity to the frontier has not generated any distinct pattern of population density on either side of the boundary line. The spatial coherence of the observed phenomena throughout the Peninsula and of its evolution, independent of the border between states, reinforces the importance of geographic factors in their explanation. At the same time, this verification opens up new issues related to the effect of national political and economic policies.

Population and railways in Portugal, 1801-1930

Portuguese historiography has mostly adopted a pessimistic view regarding the contribution of the railways to the development of country. Yet, railway access helped to increase population concentration and economic development, favoring migration into towns, the growth of pre-existing urban centers, and the emergence of new centers. But railways tended to be more beneficial to regions that were already prosperous and to aggravate the conditions unfavorable to development in areas with greater structural weaknesses.

Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística