9 resultados para dynamic impulse response


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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

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IET Control Theory & Applications, Vol. 1, Nº 1

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Signal Processing, Vol. 83, nº 11

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IEE Proceedings - Vision, Image, and Signal Processing, Vol. 147, nº 1

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Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Cybernetics, Vienna University of Technology, August 30 - September 1, 2004

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This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

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To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil