Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

Testing for tail breaks in currency returns

In this work project we study the tail properties of currency returns and analyze whether changes in the tail indices of these series have occurred over time as a consequence of turbulent periods. Our analysis is based on the methods introduced by Quintos, Fan and Phillips (2001), Candelon and Straetmans (2006, 2013), and their extensions. Specifically, considering a sample of daily data from December 31, 1993 to February 13, 2015 we apply the recursive test in calendar time (forward test) and in reverse calendar time (backward test) and indeed detect falls and rises in the tail indices, signifying increases and decreases in the probability of extreme events.

Planning the medical workforce - an analysis of the third repport of the Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee

Arquivos de Medicina 1998; 12(4): 246-248

Intention recognition, commitment and their roles in the evolution of cooperation

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática

Modelling resilience in supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Information Society in Croatia, Landsc@pes of Knowledge for Development

Sabbatical Studies Report

Covered interest parity

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The determinants of SMEs capital structure: Overcoming supply constraints

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Caraterização estatística dos valores percentuais de sangue do grupo AB0 colhido pelo Centro Regional de Sangue de Lisboa e respetivo emparelhamento com a distribuição a nível hospitalar

RESUMO: A Medicina Transfusional está a mudar rapidamente em resposta a um número de diferentes catástrofes, patologias e novas técnicas da ciência. Por detrás de uma transfusão de sangue existe todo um conjunto de procedimentos, técnicas e atuações que salvaguardam o rigor e segurança científicas resultando numa maior eficiência na diminuição da morbilidade/mortalidade humana. Todo o processo de colheita, análise, processamento e distribuição de concentrados de eritrócitos comporta um capital elevado em termos da economia para a saúde e os requisitos básicos de uma gestão de qualidade, na área da saúde em geral e da hemoterapia em particular, tem de compreender, com rigor, estas condições de gestão parceria de forma a evitar um aumento nos custos da saúde. Para identificar as discrepâncias nos pedidos efetuados pelos Hospitais Públicos e Privados ao Centro de Sangue e Transplantação de Lisboa, no que diz respeito ao Sistema AB0 dos concentrados de Eritrócitos, foi feito um estudo quantitativo, com fins descritivos simples, aos 95 984 concentrados de eritrócitos enviados às 32 Instituições de Saúde da abrangência do CST de Lisboa. Tendo em conta o Sistema AB0 RhD, confirma-se que o grupo sanguíneo prevalente, tanto na população portuguesa como nos dadores de sangue que efetuaram a sua dádiva de sangue em 2011, é o grupo A Rh+. Observou-se no entanto que o grupo sanguíneo mais pedido e enviado pertence ao grupo 0 Rh positivo. Assim, apurou-se que existe uma disparidade, mesmo que pouco acentuada, nos pedidos efetuados pelos Hospitais Públicos e Privados ao Centro de Sangue e Transplantação de Lisboa no que configura ao Sistema AB0 dos concentrados de eritrócitos. Os Hospitais Públicos Sem Serviço de Colheita de Sangue e os Hospitais Privados são responsáveis por este desencontro de valores. No que se refere às inutilizações por prazo de validade ressalva-se que os desaproveitamentos de CE’s não são tão acentuados como se esperaria numa primeira fase de estudo. No entanto, e em termos económicos, se existem inutilizações por prazo de validade, existe igualmente despojo financeiro. Por detrás de cada unidade inutilizada existe um alto investimento que será desperdiçado por carência de solicitação. De forma a minimizar gastos e a salvaguardar um Banco de Sangue capaz de suportar qualquer eventualidade de rutura de stock estão patentes propostas de estratégias capazes de impedir constrangimentos diários e futuros no que diz respeito à disponibilidade de sangue e componentes sanguíneos.--------------ABSTRACT: The Transfusion Medicine it is changing fast in response to a number of different catastrophes, disease and new techniques of science. From behind a blood transfusion there is a whole set of procedures, techniques and actions that safeguard the safety and scientific rigor resulting in greater efficiency in reducing morbidity / mortality human. The entire process of procurement, testing, processing and distribution of concentrated erythrocytes involves a high capital in terms of the economy to health and the basic requirements of a quality management in healthcare in general and hemotherapy in particular has to understand with rigor, this partnership in order to avoid an increase in health costs. In order to identify discrepancies in the orders placed by the Government and Private Hospitals Center Blood and Transplant Lisbon regarding the AB0 system of concentrated erythrocytes was made a quantitative study with simple descriptive purposes to 95,984 erythrocytes concentrates sent to 32 Health Institutions of the scope of CST Lisbon. Having regard to the system AB0 blood group RhD prevalent both in the Portuguese population as blood donors, who made his blood donation in 2011, confirms that belong to group A Rh +. It was found that blood group most requested and sent belongs to group 0 Rh positive. Thus, it was found that there is a disparity, even a little sharp, requests made by the Government and Private Hospitals Blood Center and Transplantation in Lisbon that configures the system AB0 erythrocyte concentrates. The Public Hospitals without Blood Harvest and Private Hospitals are responsible for this clash of values. With regard the expiry date by disables proviso that the wastes of CE's are not as sharp as one would expect in a first phase of the study. However, in economic terms, if there is disables by expiry date, there is also financial squandering. Behind every unused unit is a high investment to be wasted by shortage of request. To minimize costs and safeguarding a Blood Bank can support any event of rupture of stock patents are proposed strategies to prevent future and diaries constraints with regard to the availability of blood and blood components.

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

While the crisis proceeds: A world redistribution of economic power?

The crisis has drawn attention to the fact that not only emerging powers but other regions of the world as well may be offering different development models and may constitute into alternative, in some dimensions more positive agents, in the conduct of the present stage of globalisation. Notwithstanding, the traditional western powers have not lost a large amount of control of the world economy. And the crisis proceeds, reallocating world power as in a Hobbesian anarchy. It is difficult to foresee smooth developments in the near future. On the contrary, multilateralism seems to be losing ground to unilateral action or bilateral arrangements. More or less disguised currency wars may lead to serious disequilibria, and turf wars may become more frequent, with motives ranging from securing captive markets to control of specific commodities and energy goods, or targeted regulatory frameworks. As economic policy becomes even more involved with defence and security affairs, the feedbacks from each side to the other seem likely to keep dissent and animosity high, rather than contributing to peaceful and constructive approaches. A more trouble-prone world may be easily expected.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Avaliação das necessidades, incapacidade, qualidade de vida e satisfação com os serviços de indivíduos com esquizofrenia em Cabo Verde

RESUMO: OBJECTIVO: Avaliar as necessidades, incapacidade, qualidade de vida, satisfação com os serviços e as características sociodemográficas numa amostra de pacientes com esquizofrenia num Serviço de Psiquiatria, em Cabo Verde. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se estudo transversal com 122 doentes com recurso a instrumentos estruturados para as necessidades (CAN), incapacidade (WHODAS II), qualidade de vida (WHOQOL-BREF) e satisfação com os serviços (VSSS) e uma ficha para recolha de dados sociodemográficos. RESULTADOS: Os doentes eram maioritariamente do sexo masculino (73,8%) com uma idade média de 35,23 anos, uma escolaridade baixa (59,8%), solteiros (81.1%), residindo em meio urbano (72,1%) e desempregados (63,2%). A maioria estava a tomar medicação antipsicótica (97,5%), tinha história de internamento (76.2%), uma média de início da doença aos 23,43 anos e uma duração média de 11,80 anos. As necessidades referidas foram baixas e as facetas mais identificadas foram a informação, os subsídios e benefícios sociais, as actividades diárias, os contactos sociais e sofrimento psicológico. Cerca 20% dos participantes manifestaram uma incapacidade, sobretudo no domínio da da participação na sociedade (47,2%). A média da qualidade de vida foi 65,08 (desvio-padrão: 21,35), com o domínio psicológico a apresentar o valor mais alto (74,21, desvio-padrão: 14,87) e o ambiental o mais baixo (59,27, desvio-padrão: 15,15). A satisfação com os serviços foi avaliada de forma positiva nas dimensões satisfação global e competência dos profissionais. As dimensões informação, envolvimento dos familiares, eficácia e acesso tiveram avaliação insatisfatória. Os tipos de intervenções, com vários serviços pouco disponibilizados, tiveram uma satisfação relativa. DISCUSSÃO: Num contexto de carência, os resultados revelaram-se mais satisfatórios do que esperados, mas com grandes insuficiências no processo de cuidados. CONCLUSÃO: O estudo permitiu conhecer o processo de cuidados aos doentes com esquizofrenia e disponibilizou elementos para programas de cuidados.-----------ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: Assess needs, disability, quality of life, satisfaction with the services and the socio-demographic characteristics in a sample of patients with schizophrenia in a Psychiatric Service in Cape Verde. MATHODS: It was carried out a cross-sectional study with 122 patients using the structured instruments for the needs (CAN), disability (WHODAS II), quality of life (WHOQOLBREF),satisfaction with the services (VSSS) and socio-demographic data collection. RESULTS: The patients are mainly of the male sex (73.8%) with average age of 35.23 years old, low education level (59.8%), single (81.1%), living in urban area and unemployed (63.2%). Most of them were taking antipsychotic medication (97.5%), had a history of hospitalization (76.2%), an average of disease onset at 23.43 years old and an average duration of 11.80 years. The needs mentioned were low and the most identified facets were information, subsidies and social benefits, daily routines, social contacts and psychological distress. Around 20% of the participants expressed one disability, especially at the domain of the participation in the society (47.2%). The average quality of life was 65.08 (standard deviation: 21.35), with the domain of the psychological presenting the highest value (74.21, standard deviation: 14.87) and environmental the lowest (59.27, standard deviation: 15.15). The satisfaction with services was positively assessed in the dimensions of overall satisfaction and competency of the professionals. The dimensions information, family involvement, effectiveness and access had positive evaluation. The types of intervention with services poorly available had a relative satisfaction. DISCUSSION: In a context of shortage, the results were considered more satisfactory than expected, but with many inadequacies in the process of care. CONCLUSION: This study allowed to know the process of care to the patients with schizophrenia and provided elements for the programs of care.

The economics of Vieira da Silva

This paper investigates the time valuation and the age valuation profile of art-works created by the Portuguese female painter Maria Helena Vieira da Silva. It uses data from records from her paintings auction sales between 1986 and 2014, taken from Artprice.com. The study explores three aspects regarding her artistic career: (1) estimation of Age-valuation profile, defining her creativity pattern and the age at which she produced her most valuable paintings; (2) estimation of time valuation profile, through a creation of an individual hedonic price index for Vieira da Silva; (3) internationalization phenomenon of the artist, investigating whether selling prices are primarily set in euros or in US dollar. The results suggest that Vieira da Silva peaked quite early in her career; her paintings prices are not very sensible to economic cycles and tends to slightly increase afterlife; the empirical results are not suggestive on which currency is the best predictor of her paintings’ price.