Information technology service management: an experimental approach towards IT service prediction

Dissertation presented to obtain a Masters degree in Computer Science

Fractional discrete-time signal processing: scale conversion and linear prediction

Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 29

New results on fractional linear prediction

Proceedings of the European Control Conference, ECC’01, Porto, Portugal, September 2001

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Análise da estrutura e da função da proteína morfogenética RodZ de Bacillus subtilis

Resumo: RodZ é um componente do sistema morfogenético das células bacterianas. É uma proteína transmembranar que localiza em bandas ao longo do eixo longitudinal da célula. Em Bacillus subtilis, RodZ consiste numa porção citoplasmática, RodZn, e em uma parte extra-citoplasmática, RodZc. RodZn contém um domínio em helixturn- helix (HTH), enquanto que RodZc pode ser dividido num domínio coiled-coil e num domínio terminal C, de função desconhecida. Um segmento transmembranar (TM) único separa RodZn de RodZc. A eliminação de rodZ causa alongamento do nucleóide e leva à produção de células polares nucleadas. Aqui, mostramos que RodZn é estruturado, estável e em hélice α. Descobrimos que as substituições Y32A e L33A na suposta hélice de reconhecimento (3) do motivo HTH, bem como as substituições Y49A e F53A, fora do motivo HTH (4), causam divisão assimétrica, mas apenas as últimas levam à deslocalização sub-celular de RodZ. Sugerimos que as hélices 3 e 4 são utilizadas para uma interacção proteína-proteína ou proteína- DNA essencial para divisão celular enquanto que 4 deve contactar um componente do citosqueleto, possivelmente MreB, uma vez que a correcta localização sub-celular de RodZ depende desta proteína. Em todos os mutantes as células polares são anucleadas, pelo que concluímos que o alongamento do nucleóide não é um prérequisito para divisão assimétrica. RodZc é largamente não estruturado mas com conteúdo de folha , sendo estabilizado pelo domínio coiled-coil. Mostramos uma relação homóloga entre RodZc e a bomba de transporte Na+/Ca2+ NCX1 e identificámos dois resíduos no domínio C, G265 e N275, essenciais para a manutenção da forma celular. Estes resíduos fazem parte de um motivo em gancho que pode actuar como um local de interacção com um ligando desconhecido. RodZn e RodZc são monoméricos em solução. Contudo, na membrana, RodZ interage consigo própria num sistema de dois híbridos (Split-Ubiquitin) em levedura, sugerindo que possa formar multímeros in vivo.-----------ABSTRACT: RodZ is a transmembrane component of the bacterial core morphogenic apparatus. RodZ localizes in bands long the longitudinal axis of the cell, and it is though to functionally link the cell wall to the actin cytoskeleton. In Bacillus subtilis, RodZ consists of a cytoplasmic moiety, RodZn, and an extracytoplasmic moiety, RodZc. RodZn contains a predicted helix-turn-helix domain, whereas RodZc is thought to contain a coiled-coil region and a terminal C domain of unknown function. A single transmembrane domain separates RodZn from RodZc. Deletion of rodZ causes elongation of the nucleoid and leads to the production of polar minicells containing DNA. Here, we have studied the structure and function of RodZn and RodZc. We show that RodZn is a stable, folded, -helical domain. We discovered that the Y32A and L33A substitutions within the presumptive recognition helix (3) of the HTH motif, as well as the Y49A and F53A substitutions outside of the HTH motif (in 4) cause asymmetric cell division. However, only the substitutions in 4 cause sub-celular delocalization of RodZ. We suggest that 3 and 4 are used for a protein-protein or protein-DNA interaction important for cell division, whereas 4 is likely to contact a cytoskeletal component, presumably MreB. The polar cells formed by all the mutants are anucleate. We conclude that nucleoid elongation is not a prerequisite for asymmetric division. RodZc appears to be a largely unstructured domain, with some -sheet content, and is stabilized by the coiled-coil region. We show a homology relationship between RodZc and the NCX1 Na+/Ca2+ transporter and we found two residues within the C domain, G265 and N275, that are important for cell shape determination. These residues are predicted to be essential determinants of a claw-like motif, which may act as a binding site for an unknown ligand. Both the isolated RodZn and RodZc proteins are monomeric in solution. However, because full-length RodZ interacts with itself in a split-ubiquitin yeast two-hybrid assay, we suggest that it may dimerize or form higher order multimers in vivo.

Diversidade genética e resistência natural ao Maraviroc em estirpes do vírus da imunodeficiência humana Tipo 1 (HIV-1) em circulação em utilizadores de drogas por via endovenosa na Grande Lisboa

RESUMO: O maraviroc (MVC) é o único anti-retroviral antagonista do co-receptor CCR5 licenciado e interage com as ansas transmembranares de CCR5, induzindo uma alteração da sua conformação e impedindo a interacção com gp120. O MVC é activo apenas contra estirpes R5 de HIV-1, sendo utilizado em terapia de recurso. Neste trabalho, foi estudada a diversidade genética da região C2V3C3 do gene env de estirpes de HIV-1 de oxicodependentes por via endovenosa da Grande Lisboa, pesquisando-se também a presença de polimorfismos genéticos naturais. Foram utilizadas 52 amostras de plasma e para 35 destas foi amplificado por RT-nested PCR um produto de 565 pb. A análise filogenética revelou a seguinte distribuição de genótipos: 23 B (incluindo, provavelmente, 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G e 1 F1. Após tradução, e por comparação com a sequência consenso B, verificou-se uma elevada frequência de polimorfismos genéticos, sendo encontradas algumas “assinaturas de aminoácidos” relativas aos subtipos não-B. Realizou-se ainda uma pesquisa de locais de N-glicosilação e a previsão da utilização de co-receptores (abordagem genotípica), com recurso às regras 11/25 e da carga líquida da ansa V3 e aos programas PSSM e geno2pheno[coreceptor]. Observou-se uma conservação genérica do número de locais de N-glicosilação e foram identificadas 5 sequências com tropismo X4 ou duplo. Por fim, com base na literatura, realizou-se uma pesquisa de polimorfismos genéticos associados a resistência ao MVC presentes na ansa V3. Foi observado um número elevado destas mutações. A presença dos padrões 11S+26V e 20F+25D+26V, num total de 3 sequências, é relevante, visto estes estarem inequivocamente associados à resistência in vivo ao MVC. Apesar de não estar ainda definido um perfil de resistência para o MVC, a presença das mutações encontradas, em indivíduos sem contacto prévio com o fármaco, trará implicações relevantes na sua gestão clínica, considerando a introdução do MVC na terapia de recurso.---------- ABSTRACT: Maraviroc (MVC) is the only CCR5 inhibitor licensed today. This drug interacts with the transmembrane helices of CCR5 co-receptor, inducing a conformation change of its extracellular loops and preventing the interaction with gp120. MVC is only active against R5 strains of HIV-1 and is currently used in salvage therapy. The genetic diversity of the env C2V3C3 region of HIV-1 strains from injecting drug users in the Greater Lisbon was studied, along with the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms. 52 plasma samples were used and the amplification by RT-nested PCR of a 565 bp-product was possible in 35 of them. The phylogenetic analysis revealed 23 sequences classified as subtype B (probably including 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G and 1 F1. After translation, the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms was studied by comparison to a subtype B consensus. A high frequency of genetic polymorphisms was observed and significant “amino acid signatures” were found in association with non-B subtypes. A full characterization of the N-glycosylation sites was also performed and a coreceptor prediction (genotypic approach) was accomplished using the 11/25 and the V3 net charge rules and the programs PSSM and geno2pheno[coreceptor]. The number of N-glycosylation sites was generically preserved. Five sequences were defined as X4 or dual-tropic. Based on published data, a search for genetic polymorphisms, present in V3loop, associated to MVC resistance was finally undertaken. Several of such mutations were observed, being particularly interesting the presence of the patterns 11S+26V and 20F+25D+26V, in a total of 3 sequences, since these patterns have unequivocally been associated with MVC resistance in vivo. Although a resistance profile for MVC is not yet defined, the presence of these mutations in MVC-naïve populations may have significant impact in their clinical management in the future, especially considering the introduction of this drug in salvage therapy.

Structural investigation of the Bacillus subtilis morphogenic factor RodZ

A thesis to obtain a Master degree in Structural and Functional Biochemistry

High or low initial setting price?: Initial setting price as prediction of intention to bid in on line auctions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Correction of the anisotropy in resistivity: application to pore pressure prediction

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Numerical prediction of diffusion and electric field-induced iron nanoparticle transport

Zero valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) are considered very promising for the remediation of contaminated soils and groundwaters. However, an important issue related to their limited mobility remains unsolved. Direct current can be used to enhance the nanoparticles transport, based on the same principles of electrokinetic remediation. In this work, a generalized physicochemical model was developed and solved numerically to describe the nZVI transport through porous media under electric field, and with different electrolytes (with different ionic strengths). The model consists of the Nernst–Planck coupled system of equations, which accounts for the mass balance of ionic species in a fluid medium, when both the diffusion and electromigration of the ions are considered. The diffusion and electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nZVI particles were also considered in the system. The contribution of electroosmotic flow to the overall mass transport was included in the model for all cases. The nZVI effective mobility values in the porous medium are very low (10−7–10−4 cm2 V−1 s−1), due to the counterbalance between the positive electroosmotic flow and the electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nanoparticles. The higher the nZVI concentration is in the matrix, the higher the aggregation; therefore, low concentration of nZVI suspensions must be used for successful field application.

Development of 3D in vitro models for prediction of hepatic metabolism and toxicity

The development of human cell models that recapitulate hepatic functionality allows the study of metabolic pathways involved in toxicity and disease. The increased biological relevance, cost-effectiveness and high-throughput of cell models can contribute to increase the efficiency of drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. Recapitulation of liver functionality in vitro requires the development of advanced culture strategies to mimic in vivo complexity, such as 3D culture, co-cultures or biomaterials. However, complex 3D models are typically associated with poor robustness, limited scalability and compatibility with screening methods. In this work, several strategies were used to develop highly functional and reproducible spheroid-based in vitro models of human hepatocytes and HepaRG cells using stirred culture systems. In chapter 2, the isolation of human hepatocytes from resected liver tissue was implemented and a liver tissue perfusion method was optimized towards the improvement of hepatocyte isolation and aggregation efficiency, resulting in an isolation protocol compatible with 3D culture. In chapter 3, human hepatocytes were co-cultivated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) and the phenotype of both cell types was characterized, showing that MSC acquire a supportive stromal function and hepatocytes retain differentiated hepatic functions, stability of drug metabolism enzymes and higher viability in co-cultures. In chapter 4, a 3D alginate microencapsulation strategy for the differentiation of HepaRG cells was evaluated and compared with the standard 2D DMSO-dependent differentiation, yielding higher differentiation efficiency, comparable levels of drug metabolism activity and significantly improved biosynthetic activity. The work developed in this thesis provides novel strategies for 3D culture of human hepatic cell models, which are reproducible, scalable and compatible with screening platforms. The phenotypic and functional characterization of the in vitro systems performed contributes to the state of the art of human hepatic cell models and can be applied to the improvement of pre-clinical drug development efficiency of the process, model disease and ultimately, development of cell-based therapeutic strategies for liver failure.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

A minimal version of a Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase

Phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) protein belongs to the family of protein tyrosine phos-phatase. Mutations on the phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) protein are highly observed in diverse types of human tumors, being mostly identified on the phosphatase domain of the protein. Although PTEN is a modular protein composed by a phosphatase domain and a C2 domain for mem-brane anchoring, this work aimed at developing a minimal version of PTEN´s phosphatase domain. The minimal version (Small Domain) comprises a 28 residue peptide, with the PTEN 8-mer catalytic peptide accommodated between a α-helix and β-turn as observed in PTEN native structure. Firstly, a de novo prediction of the Small Domain´s secondary structure was carried out by molecular modeling tools. The stability of the predicted structures were then evaluated by Molecular Dynamics. Automated molecular docking of PTEN natural substrate PIP3, its analogue (Inositol) and a PTEN inhibitor (L-tar-tare) were performed with the modeled structure, and PTEN used as a positive control. The gene en-coding for Small Domain was designed and cloned into an expression vector at N-terminal of Green Fluorescence Protein (GFP) encoding gene. The fusion protein was then expressed in Escherichia coli cells. Different expression conditions have been explored for the production of the fusion protein to minimize the formation of inclusion bodies.