Fractional state space analysis of economic systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Numerical methods and tangible interfaces for pollutant dispersion simulation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Contributo para o estudo da influência do stress na resposta imunitária à vacina contra a gripe em profissionais de saúde

Resumo: Os profissionais de saúde podem estar expostos a vários factores indutores de stress crónico nomeadamente de natureza profissional destacando-se, entre os seus possíveis efeitos, a diminuição da resposta de anticorpos após administração de vacinas, entre as quais, a vacina contra a gripe. Uma vez que os trabalhadores da saúde estão expostos a factores indutores de stress e, simultaneamente, a agentes biológicos cujos efeitos poderão ser prevenidos pela vacinação, é pertinente estudar a influência do stress na resposta imunitária à vacina contra a gripe em enfermeiros. Constituíram objectivos deste trabalho: (1) estudar a associação entre a presença de stress crónico em enfermeiros hospitalares e a “insuficiente” resposta imunitária à vacina contra a gripe, avaliada um mês após a vacinação (T1); (2) estudar a associação entre a presença de stress crónico em enfermeiros hospitalares e a redução dos títulos de anticorpos dirigidos às hemaglutininas seis meses após a vacinação (T6) e (3) identificar algumas características das unidades de internamento e do trabalho dos participantes que possam estar associadas à presença de stress crónico e estudar a sua possível associação com a resposta imunitária à vacina contra a gripe. Realizou-se um estudo caso-controlo incorporado num estudo de coortes e a amostra em estudo foi constituída por 136 enfermeiros saudáveis (83,8% sexo feminino; média de idades de 33anos) de um hospital universitário. Realizaram-se entrevistas individuais e aplicaram-se as versões portuguesas dos questionários The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) e Maslach Burnout Inventory – Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS) para determinação da presença de stress crónico pelo método da triangulação, no início do estudo (T0) e realizou-se a recolha de dados relativos à caracterização de elementos de trabalho nas unidades de internamento. Foi administrada a vacina contra a gripe e determinou-se os títulos de anticorpos dirigidos às hemaglutininas de cada estirpe componentes da vacina contra a gripe utilizada em 2007, antes da vacinação, um mês e seis meses após a vacinação. Não se encontrou associação, ao nível de significância de 5%, entre a presença de stress e a “insuficiente” resposta à vacina contra a gripe, avaliada pela taxa de indivíduos que apresentaram um aumento, ao fim de um mês, inferior a quatro vezes os títulos de anticorpos antes da vacinação. No entanto, encontrou-se uma maior proporção de indivíduos com stress no grupo de participantes em que ocorreu uma diminuição do título de anticorpos dirigidos à hemaglutinina AH1 (ac AH1) em T6, quando comparado com o respectivo grupo controlo. A diferença entre grupos foi estatisticamente significativa, quando se avaliou a presença de stress pelo método da triangulação usando a entrevista (p=0,006), pelo método da triangulação usando o GHQ12 (p=0,045) e ainda usando a combinação dos três critérios (p=0,001). Após análise multivariada, verificou-se que a associação entre a presença de XXVI stress e a redução dos ac AH1 em T6 manteve significado estatístico (respectivamente, p= 0,010, p= 0,042 e p=0,002) e apresentou odds ratio ajustados, em função de cada um dos métodos de avaliação da presença de stress, de 3,643, de 2,733 e de 5,223. A quantidade de trabalho percepcionada como sobrecarga constituiu o factor indutor de stress mais vezes referido (58,8% da amostra e 61,8% dos enfermeiros de unidades de internamento), seguida dos conflitos entre profissionais. O contacto com o sofrimento e a morte de doentes foram identificados em quarto lugar pela amostra, mas em segundo pelos enfermeiros de unidades de internamento. Nesses, verificou-se uma associação positiva entre trabalhar em Serviços onde o número de doentes falecidos foi muito elevado e a presença de stress, medido pelo método da triangulação usando a entrevista (p=0,039), usando o GHQ12 (p=0,019), usando a escala de exaustão emocional do MBI-HSS (p=0,012) e pela combinação dos três métodos (p=0,014). Verificou-se também uma associação positiva entre a presença de stress, identificada pelo método da triangulação usando a escala de exaustão emocional do MBI-HSS, e o trabalho em serviços de internamento onde a percentagem de doentes idosos (p=0,025) e a taxa de letalidade (p=0,036) foram elevadas. Contudo, não se encontrou associação entre a exposição muito frequente ao sofrimento e à morte de doentes e a redução do título de ac AH1 em T6. Possivelmente, a exposição a esse factor indutor de stress, apesar de estar relacionada com a presença de stress nos enfermeiros de serviços de internamento, não foi suficientemente intenso para, por si só, estar associada à redução do título de ac AH1 em T6. A associação encontrada entre a presença de stress crónico e a redução do título de anticorpos AH1 em T6 vem apoiar a resposta à questão de investigação inicialmente colocada de que o stress poderá influenciar negativamente a manutenção dos títulos de anticorpos, mesmo em indivíduos adultos não idosos. Assim, o risco de um enfermeiro com stress apresentar redução do título de anticorpos dirigidos à hemaglutinina da estirpe AH1N1 – A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 ao fim dos seis meses do estudo, foi 3,6, 2,7 ou 5,2 vezes superior ao de um enfermeiro sem stress, consoante o critério de stress ter sido determinado, respectivamente, pelo método da triangulação usando a entrevista, pelo método da triangulação utilizando o GHQ12 ou pela combinação dos três critérios. Summary: Health workers may be exposed to various factors causing chronic stress namely those related directly to their activity, in particular the decrease in the capacity of the response of antibodies after the administration of the vaccines, amongst others the Influenza vaccine. Since health workers are exposed to factors causing stress and at the same time biological agents, whose effects may be prevented through vaccination, it is important to study the influence of stress in the immunity response to the Influenza vaccine on nurses. The aims of this study are: (1) to examine the relation between chronic stress in hospital nurses and the “insufficient” immunity response to the Influenza vaccine, assessed at one month after vaccination (T1); (2) to examine the relation between chronic stress in hospital nurses and the decrease of the hemagglutinin titles of antibodies six months after vaccination (T6); (3) to identify some characteristics of internment units and the work of the participants that may be related to the presence of chronic stress and to study its possible relation with the immunity response to the Influenza vaccine. A control-case study, integrated in a coortes study, was carried out and the sample under analysis consisted of 136 healthy nurses (83,8% female; average age 33 years old) from a university hospital. Several individual interviews were conducted and the portuguese versions of General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) and Maslach Burnout Inventory – Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS) was applied in order to determine the presence of chronic stress, using the triangulation method at the beginning of the study (T0). Data concerning the particular features of the internment units was collected. The Influenza vaccine was administered and the titles of hemagglutinin antibodies of each strain composing the Influenza vaccine used in 2007, before vaccination, and a month and six months after vaccination, were determined. There was no statistically relevant (5%) relation between stress and the “insufficient” immune response to the Influenza vaccine, according to the rate of individuals that showed, after a month, a level of antibodies concentration lower than four times the level prior to the vaccination. Nevertheless, there was a greater number of individuals with stress in the group of participants in which there was a decrease of the hemagglutinin titles of antibodies AH1 (ac AH1) in T6, when compared to the control group under study. The difference between groups was statistically relevant when assessing the presence of stress by triangulation method using the interview (p=0,006), by triangulation method using the GHQ12 (p=0,045) and by the combination of the three criteria (p=0,001). After multivariate analysis, it was verified that the XXVIII relation between the presence of stress and the reduction of the ac AH1 in T6 was statistically relevant (respectively, p= 0,010, p= 0,042 and p=0,002) and the odds ratio were, according to each of the methods used to assess the presence of stress, 3,643, 2,733 and 5,223. Overwork was the most emphasised stress-causing factor (58,8% of the sample and 61,8% of the nurses working in the Internment Units), followed by conflicts arousing among co-workers. Witnessing the suffering and death of patients was ranked as the fourth cause of stress, but the second by the nurses of the internment units. The former revealed a positive connection between working in the services, where there was a high rate of deaths, and the presence of stress, when assessing the presence of stress by triangulation method using the interview (p=0,039), the GHQ12 (p=0,019), the MBI-HSS emotional exhaustion scale (p=0,012) and by the combination of the three criteria (p=0,014).There was also a connection between the presence of stress, identified by the method of triangulation using the MBI-HSS emotional exhaustion scale, and working in the internment units, where the percentage of elderly people (p=0,025) and the mortality rate (p=0,036) were high. However, there was no connection between frequent exposure to suffering and death in patients and the reduction of ac AH1 titles, in T6. Although one can establish a connection between stress in nurses working in the internment units and the aforementioned stress-causing factor, the exposure to that factor was not, per se, intense enough to reduce the ac AH1 title in T6. The relation found between the presence of chronic stress and the reduction of AH1 antibodies titles in T6, corroborates the hypothesis that stress can negatively influence the title of antibodies, even in non-elderly adults. Thus, and according to the criteria used to define stress, by the triangulation method using the interview, by the triangulation method using the GHQ12 or the combination of the three criteria respectively, the risk of a nurse suffering from stress showing a reduction in the title of hemagglutinin antibodies for the strain AH1N1 – A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 six-month after Influenza vaccine was 3,6, 2,7 or 5,2 times greater than on a nurse suffering from no stress at all. Résumé: Les professionnels de la santé peuvent être exposés à différents facteurs inducteurs de stress chronique de nature professionnelle. On remarque, parmi les effets possibles, une baisse de la réponse des anticorps après l´administration de vaccins, comme en particulier, le vaccin de la grippe. Lorsque les professionnels de la santé ont été exposés à des facteurs inducteurs de stress, et de manière simultanée, à des agents biologiques dont les effets pourront être prévenus par la vaccination, il est pertinent d´étudier l´influence du stress dans la réponse immunitaire au vaccin de la grippe chez les infirmiers. Ils ont constitué des objectifs d´études et de discussion : (1) étudier l´association entre la présence de stress chronique chez les infirmiers, en milieu hospitalier, et la “insuffisant” réponse immunitaire au vaccin de la grippe, vérifiée à un mois après la vaccination (T1); (2) étudier l´association entre la présence de stress chronique chez les infirmiers, en milieu hospitalier, et la réduction de la teneur des anticorps dirigé à la hémaglutinina six mois après la vaccination (T6) (3) identifier certaines caractéristiques des unités d´internement, et étudier les aspects du travail des participants, qui puissent être associée à la présence de stress chronique et étudier sa possible association avec la réponse immunitaire au vaccin de la grippe. Une étude cas-contrôle incorporée dans une étude de groupe a été réalisée et un échantillon, pour étude, a été constitué par 136 infirmiers sains (83,8% de sexe féminin, âge moyen 33 ans) travaillant dans un hôpital universitaire. Des entretiens individuels ont été réalisés et les versions portugaises des questionnaires de General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) et Maslach Burnout Inventory- Human Service Survey (MBI-HSS) ont été utilisés pour déterminer la présence de stress chronique grâce à la méthode de triangulation, au début de l´étude (T0) et un relevé de données relatives à la caractérisation d´éléments de travail dans les unités d´internement a été fait. Le vaccin de la grippe a été administré et les teneurs en anticorps dirigés aux hémaglutininas de chaque composant du vaccin de la grippe pour 2007 ont été déterminés, avant la vaccination et un mois et six mois après. On n´a pas trouvé d´association, à un niveau significatif de au moins 5%, entre la présence de stress et la “insuffisant” réponse au vaccin de la grippe, évaluée par le taux d´individus qui ont présenté une augmentation, à la fin du mois, inférieur à quatre fois la teneur des anticorps par rapport à avant la vaccination. Cependant , on a trouvé une plus grande proportion d´individus victimes de stress dans le groupe des participants où il y a eu une baisse de la teneur des anticorps dirigé à la hémaglutinina AH1 (ac AH1) en T6, après comparaison avec le respectif groupe de contrôle. La différence entre les groupes a été statistiquement significative lorsqu´on a vérifié la présence de stress grâce à la méthode de triangulation, en utilisant l´entretien (p=0,006), par la méthode de triangulation en utilisant le GHQ12 (p=0,045) et en utilisant aussi la combinaison des trois critères (p=0,001). Après une analyse XXX multivariée, on a vérifié que l´association entre la présence de stress et la réduction des ac AH1 en T6 a conservé un signifié statistique (respectivement, p=0,010, p=0,042 et p=0,002) et a présenté des odds ratio ajustés, en fonction de chacune des méthodes de vérification de la présence de stress de 3,643, de 2,733 et de 5,223. La quantité de travail perçue comme une surcharge constitue le facteur inducteur de stress le plus souvent cité (58,8% de l´échantillon et 61,8% des infirmiers des unités d´internement), suivi par les conflits entre professionnels. Le contact avec la souffrance et la mort des patients a été placé en quatrième position par l´échantillon, mais en deuxième position par les infirmiers des unités d´internement. Dans ces cas, on a vérifié une association évidente entre le fait de travailler dans des services où le nombre de patients décédés a été très élevé et la présence de stress, identifiée par la méthode de triangulation, en utilisant l´entretien (p=0,039), le GHQ12 (p=0,019), l´échelle de fatigue émotionnelle du MBI-HSS (p=0,012) et en utilisant aussi la combinaison des trois critères (p=0,014). On a aussi vérifié une association positive entre la présence de stress, identifiée par la méthode de triangulation, en utilisant l´échelle de fatigue émotionnelle du MBI-HSS et le travail dans des services d´internement où le pourcentage de malade âgés (p=0,025) et le taux de mortalité ont été élevés (p=0,036). Malgré tout, on n´a pas trouvé d´association entre l´exposition très fréquente à la souffrance et à la mort des patients et la réduction de la teneur de ac AH1 en T6. Probablement l´exposition à ce facteur inducteur de stress, bien qu´elle soit liée à la présence de stress chez les infirmiers des services d´internement, n´a pas été suffisamment intense pour, en elle-même, être associée à la réduction de la teneur ac AH1 enT6. L´association trouvée entre la présence de stress chronique et la réduction de la teneur des anticorps AH1 en T6 vient renforcer l´hypothèse que le stress pourra influencer négativement la manutention des teneurs en anticorps même chez les individus adultes jeunes. Donc le risque qu´un infirmier stressé présente une réduction de la teneur en anticorps dirigés à la hémaglutinina de le composant AH1N1-A/Solomon Island/3/2006 à la fin des six mois d´études a été 3,6, 2,7 ou 5,2 fois supérieure à celui d´un infirmier sans stress, après avoir déterminé le critère de stress, respectivement par la méthode de triangulation utilisant l´entretien, par la méthode de triangulation utilisant le GHQ12 ou par la combinaison des trois critères.

Impact of the HRM content (i.e. practices) and process (i.e. strength) on individual and organizational outcomes, in the hotel industry

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A technology diffusion perspective of Enterprise Resource Planning across European Small and Medium Enterprises: from determinants to Use to Value

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Visualization of clusters in geo-referenced data using three-dimensional self-organizing maps

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Applications of Fourier methods to the analysis of some stochastic processes

Dissertação de Doutoramento em Matemática: Processos Estocásticos

Learning networks and moodle use in online courses: a social network analysis study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências da Educação Especialidade em Tecnologias, Redes e Multimédia na Educação e Formação

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

The impact of banks dimension on profitability, sustainability and efficiency: An analysis for the Iberian financial system

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Application of NMR RDC’s, relaxation and self-diffusion for the study of dynamic processes of small molecules in solution

Spin-lattice Relaxation, self-Diffusion coefficients and Residual Dipolar Couplings (RDC’s) are the basis of well established Nuclear Magnetic Resonance techniques for the physicochemical study of small molecules (typically organic compounds and natural products with MW < 1000 Da), as they proved to be a powerful and complementary source of information about structural dynamic processes in solution. The work developed in this thesis consists in the application of the earlier-mentioned NMR techniques to explore, analyze and systematize patterns of the molecular dynamic behavior of selected small molecules in particular experimental conditions. Two systems were chosen to investigate molecular dynamic behavior by these techniques: the dynamics of ion-pair formation and ion interaction in ionic liquids (IL) and the dynamics of molecular reorientation when molecules are placed in oriented phases (alignment media). The application of NMR spin-lattice relaxation and self-diffusion measurements was applied to study the rotational and translational molecular dynamics of the IL: 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate [BMIM][BF4]. The study of the cation-anion dynamics in neat and IL-water mixtures was systematically investigated by a combination of multinuclear NMR relaxation techniques with diffusion data (using by H1, C13 and F19 NMR spectroscopy). Spin-lattice relaxation time (T1), self-diffusion coefficients and nuclear Overhauser effect experiments were combined to determine the conditions that favor the formation of long lived [BMIM][BF4] ion-pairs in water. For this purpose and using the self-diffusion coefficients of cation and anion as a probe, different IL-water compositions were screened (from neat IL to infinite dilution) to find the conditions where both cation and anion present equal diffusion coefficients (8% water fraction at 25 ºC). This condition as well as the neat IL and the infinite dilution were then further studied by 13C NMR relaxation in order to determine correlation times (c) for the molecular reorientational motion using a mathematical iterative procedure and experimental data obtained in a temperature range between 273 and 353 K. The behavior of self-diffusion and relaxation data obtained in our experiments point at the combining parameters of molar fraction 8 % and temperature 298 K as the most favorable condition for the formation of long lived ion-pairs. When molecules are subjected to soft anisotropic motion by being placed in some special media, Residual Dipolar Couplings (RDCs), can be measured, because of the partial alignment induced by this media. RDCs are emerging as a powerful routine tool employed in conformational analysis, as it complements and even outperforms the approaches based on the classical NMR NOE or J3 couplings. In this work, three different alignment media have been characterized and evaluated in terms of integrity using 2H and 1H 1D-NMR spectroscopy, namely the stretched and compressed gel PMMA, and the lyotropic liquid crystals CpCl/n-hexanol/brine and cromolyn/water. The influence that different media and degrees of alignment have on the dynamic properties of several molecules was explored. Different sized sugars were used and their self-diffusion was determined as well as conformation features using RDCs. The results obtained indicate that no influence is felt by the small molecules diffusion and conformational features studied within the alignment degree range studied, which was the 3, 5 and 6 % CpCl/n-hexanol/brine for diffusion, and 5 and 7.5 % CpCl/n-hexanol/brine for conformation. It was also possible to determine that the small molecules diffusion verified in the alignment media presented close values to the ones observed in water, reinforcing the idea of no conditioning of molecular properties in such media.

Analysis, testing and development of safe cleaning methods of rusted stone material

Three different treatments were applied on several specimens of dolomitic and calcitic marble, properly stained with rust to mimic real situations (the stone specimens were exposed to the natural environment for about six months in contact with rusted iron). Thirty six marble specimens, eighteen calcitic and eighteen dolomitic, were characterized before and after treatment and monitored throughout the cleaning tests. The specimens were characterized by SEM-EDS (Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersion System), XRD (XRay Diffraction), XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence), FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) and color measurements. It was also made a microscopic and macroscopic analysis of the stone surface along with the tests of short and long term capillary absorption. A series of test trials were conducted in order to understand which concentrations and contact times best suits to this purpose, to confirm what had been written to date in the literature. We sought to develop new methods of treatment application, skipping the usual methods of applying chemical treatments on stone substrates, with the use of cellulose poultice, resorting to the agar, a gel already used in many other areas, being something new in this area, which possesses great applicability in the field of conservation of stone materials. After the application of the best methodology for cleaning, specimens were characterized again in order to understand which treatment was more effective and less harmful, both for the operator and the stone material. Very briefly conclusions were that for a very intense and deep penetration into the stone, a solution of 3.5% of SDT buffered with ammonium carbonate to pH around 7 applied with agar support would be indicated. For rust stains in its initial state, the use of Ammonium citrate at a concentration of 5% buffered with ammonium to pH 7 could be applied more than once until satisfactory results appear.