Determinants of Portuguese external imbalances

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on external imbalances within the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Bridging environmental conflicts with social metabolism : forestry expansion and socioeconomic change

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Linear amplification with multiple nonlinear devices

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Equity in access to MRI equipment: the Portuguese case

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a method of image diagnose proven to be of undeniable importance when it comes to neuro and cardio related diseases. In fact, these diseases (such as: ischemic heart disease, stroke and acute myocardial infection) have high incidence in Portugal. For these reasons, the allocation of this medical technology should not be considered with light thoughts. In fact, making decision of resource allocation in health care can be a very complex and contested matter. The impacts of new technology allocation, such MRI, can be assessed in a variety of ways. However, a fundamental component should always be present: the use of evidence-based decision-making methods. One of these methods is Technology Assessment (TA). This paper aims to characterize the equity on access of the Portuguese population in general, to a specific medical device such as MRI, under the TA point of view. It is hoped to promote a bridge of scientific knowledge between the gap on research and policy-making through TA that can emerge as a tool to aid decision-makers in the organization of health systems. There are gaps in providing healthcare, due to geographical imbalances, with some areas unable to provide certain specialized services, as hospitals in the countryside do not provide all medical specialties. Portugal has also a large independent private sector that provides diagnostic and therapeutic services to NHS users under contracts called conventions. These medical contracts cover ambulatory health facilities for laboratory tests and examinations such as diagnostic tests and Radiology. However, there is no convention from the NHS when concerning the MRI exam. Therefore, this reality can be considered a limitation in the access of the general population to this kind of clinical exam. TA can play an useful and important role in helping the decision-makers to explore potential gains that might be achieved by introducing a more rational decision making into health care management, namely into the Radiology area, regarding the allocation of MRI equipment.

Appreciating the power of words and imaginative organizing: A triadic model of ethics practiced in everyday conversations

This thesis provides an alternative framework to analyze power and ethics practiced in everyday conversations, which constitute processes of organizing. Drawing upon narrative frameworks, the analyses of messages posted on an online message board demonstrate people’s imaginative capacity to create relevant stories, in respect of their precise grasp of factual understandings, contextual relevance and evaluative/moral appropriateness, by appropriating others’ words. Based on the empirical analyses, the thesis indicates that studies on power and ethics in organizations can be re-oriented towards appreciating irremediable power imbalances by offering alternative ways of member’s denoting experiences of power.

Breaking the Pattern and Creating New Paths – Feminist Mizrahi Women Artists in Israel

This article addresses the work of Mizrahi women artists, i.e., Israeli-Jewish women of Asian or African ethnic origin, using the artist Vered Nissim as a case study. Nissim seeks to affirm the politics of identity and recognition, as well as feminism in order to create a paradigm shift with regards to the local regime of cultural representations in the Israeli art scene. Endeavouring to find ways of undermining the rigid imbalances between different social groups, she calls for a comprehensive reform of the status quo through artistic activism. Nissim employs a style, content, and medium that disrupts the accepted social order, using humour and irony as unique weapons with which she takes liberties with conventional moral, social, and economic values. Placing issues of race, class and gender at the centre of her work, she seeks to undermine and problematize essentialist attitudes, highlighting the political intersections of different identity categories as the critical analysis of intersectionality unfolds.