The portuguese pharmaceutial market in the near future - A time series exploration approach

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Aplicação ao ensino médico do método de aprendizagem por problemas (APP), 2ª Parte: A experiência da disciplina de Fisiopatologia entre 1992 e 1995

Educação Médica. 1997;8 (3): 156-173

The Cristo Rei section (Lower Miocene). Distal fluviatile environments in a marine series, plants, vertebrates and other evidence, age

The section at Cristo Rei shows sandy beds with intercalated clayey lenses (IVb division from the Lisbon Miocene series) that correspond to a major regression event dated from between ca. 17.6 and 17 Ma. They also correspond to a distal position (relatively to the typical fluviatile facies in Lisbon), nearer the basin's axis. Geologic data and paleontological analysis (plant fossils, fishes, crocodilians, land mammals) allow the reconstruction of environments that were represented in the concerned area: estuary with channels and ox-bows; upstream, areas occupied by brackish waters where Gryphaea griphoides banks developped; still farther upstream, freshwaters sided by humid forests and low mountain subtropical forests under warm temperate and rainy conditions, as well as not far away, seasonally dry environments (low density tree or shrub cover, or steppe).

Lithostratigraphy, sequence stratigraphy and depositional setting of the Pliensbachian and Toarcian series in the Lusitanian Basin, Portugal

In the Lusitanian Basin (Central Portugal), the Middle-Upper Liassic series are characterized by an expressive marly limestone accumulation, sediments that were deposited on a homoclinal carbonate ramp. These series belong to the Vale das Fontes, Lemede, S. Gião (and the lateral equivalents Prado and Cabo Carvoeiro Formations) and, partially, to the Póvoa da Lomba Formations. These units, in great part controlled by an accurate ammonite biostratigraphic scale, are organized into two secondorder transgressive-regressive sequences. The first one (SP) is dated of early Pliensbachian/lowermost early Toarcian age; the second (ST) is dated of early Toarcian to early Aalenian.

Orbital forcing of stratal patterns in an inner platform carbonate sucession: an example from an Upper Hauterivian series of the Lusitanian Basin, Portugal

With an example taken from a late-Hauterivian series of the Lusitanian Basin (Portugal), we will demonstrate the sedimentary record of orbital pattern variations and, consequently, climate variations in an inner platform environment with patterns and isolation changes, allows us to establish 4 major orders of periodicity related to orbital components:- The large cycles ob bed thickness variation, constituted by 31-32 beds, recording the 400 ky eccentricity cycle component;- The medium cycles, represented by byndles of 8-9 beds, related to the 100 ky eccentricity cycle component; - The small cycles, of 3-5 beds, recording the 41 ky obliquity components;- The very small cycles, of 2 beds, related to the 22 ky and 26 ky precession components. The mean duration of each bed is around 11.8 ky, a number very close to that of the precession hemi-cycle. Climatic control on qualitative production is confirmed by the close relation between the bed thickness variations, the insolation variability and the variation of micritized elements concentrations.

Algorithms for time series clustering applied to biomedical signals

Thesis submitted in the fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master in Biomedical Engineering

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

Transplante hepático sequencial com preservação da veia cava inferior (técnica de "Duplo Piggyback") : uma técnica original

RESUMO:Desde a declaração de Bethesda em 1983, a transplantação hepática é considerada um processo válido e aceite na prática clínica para muitos doentes com doença hepática terminal, relativamente aos quais não houvesse outra alternativa terapêutica. Em 1991, por proposta de Holmgren, professor de genética, o cirurgião sueco Bo Ericzon realizou em Huntingdon (Estocolmo) o primeiro transplante hepático num doente PAF (Polineuropatia Amilloidótica Familiar), esperando que a substituição do fígado pudesse frenar a evolução da doença. Nesta doença hereditária autossómica dominante, o fígado, apesar de estrutural e funcionalmente normal, produz uma proteína anormal (TTR Met30) responsável pela doença. A partir de então, a transplantação hepática passou a ser a única terapêutica eficaz para estes doentes. Portugal é o país do mundo com mais doentes PAF, tendo sido o médico neurologista português Corino de Andrade quem, em 1951, identificou e descreveu este tipo particular de polineuropatia hereditária, também conhecida por doença de Andrade. Com o início da transplantação hepática programada em Setembro de 1992, o primeiro doente transplantado hepático em Portugal, no Hospital Curry Cabral, foi um doente PAF. Desde logo se percebeu que a competição nas listas de espera em Portugal, entre doentes hepáticos crónicos e doentes PAF viria a ser um problema clínico e ético difícil de compatibilizar. Em 1995, Linhares Furtado, em Coimbra, realizou o primeiro transplante dum fígado dum doente PAF num doente com doença hepática metastática, ficando este tipo de transplante conhecido como transplante sequencial ou “em dominó”. Fê-lo no pressuposto de que o fígado PAF, funcional e estruturalmente normal, apesar de produzir a proteína mutada causadora da doença neurológica, pudesse garantir ao receptor um período razoável de vida livre de sintomas, tal como acontece na história natural desta doença congénita, cujas manifestações clínicas apenas se observam na idade adulta. A técnica cirúrgica mais adequada para transplantar o doente PAF é a técnica de “piggyback”, na qual a hepatectomia é feita mantendo a veia cava do doente, podendo o transplante ser feito sem recorrer a bypass extracorporal. Antes de 2001, para fazerem o transplante sequencial, os diferentes centros alteraram a técnica de hepatectomia no doente PAF, ressecando a cava com o fígado conforme a técnica clássica, recorrendo ao bypass extracorporal. No nosso centro imaginámos e concebemos uma técnica original, com recurso a enxertos venosos, que permitisse ao doente PAF submeter-se à mesma técnica de hepatectomia no transplante, quer ele viesse a ser ou não dador. Essa técnica, por nós utilizada pela primeira vez a nível mundial em 2001, ficou conhecida por Transplante Sequencial em Duplo Piggyback. Este trabalho teve como objectivo procurar saber se a técnica por nós imaginada, concebida e utilizada era reprodutível, se não prejudicava o doente PAF dador e se oferecia ao receptor hepático as mesmas garantias do fígado de cadáver. A nossa série de transplantes realizados em doentes PAF é a maior a nível mundial, assim como o é o número de transplantes sequenciais de fígado. Recorrendo à nossa base de dados desde Setembro de 1992 até Novembro de 2008 procedeu-se à verificação das hipóteses anteriormente enunciadas. Com base na experiência por nós introduzida, a técnica foi reproduzida com êxito em vários centros internacionais de referência, que por si provaram a sua reprodutibilidade. Este sucesso encontra-se publicado por diversos grupos de transplantação hepática a nível mundial. Observámos na nossa série que a sobrevivência dos doentes PAF que foram dadores é ligeiramente superior àqueles que o não foram, embora sem atingir significância estatística. Contudo, quando se analisaram, apenas, estes doentes após a introdução do transplante sequencial no nosso centro, observa-se que existe uma melhor sobrevida nos doentes PAF dadores (sobrevida aos 5 anos de 87% versus 71%, p=0,047).Relativamente aos receptores observámos que existe um benefício a curto prazo em termos de morbi-mortalidade (menor hemorragia peri-operatória) e a longo prazo alguns grupos de doentes apresentaram diferenças de sobrevida, embora sem atingir significância estatística, facto este que pode estar relacionado com a dimensão das amostras parcelares analisadas. Estes grupos são os doentes com cirrose a vírus da hepatite C e os doentes com doença hepática maligna primitiva dentro dos critérios de Milão. Fora do âmbito deste trabalho ficou um aspecto relevante que é a recidiva da doença PAF nos receptores de fígado sequencial e o seu impacto no longo prazo. Em conclusão, o presente trabalho permite afirmar que a técnica por nós introduzida pela primeira vez a nível mundial é exequível e reprodutível e é segura para os doentes dadores de fígado PAF, que não vêem a sua técnica cirúrgica alterada pelo facto de o serem. Os receptores não são, por sua vez, prejudicados por receberem um fígado PAF, havendo mesmo benefícios no pós-operatório imediato e, eventualmente, alguns grupos específicos de doentes podem mesmo ser beneficiados.---------ABSTRACT: Ever since Bethesda statement in 1983, Liver Transplantation has been accepted as a clinical therapeutic procedure for many patients with advanced hepatic failure Holmgren, professor of genetics, suggested that one could expect that transplanting a new liver could lead to improve progressive neurological symptoms of Familial Amyloidotic Polyneuropathy (PAF). Bo Ericzon, the transplant surgeon at Huddinge Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden, did in 1991 the first Liver Transplant on a FAP patient. FAP is an inherited autosomal dominant neurologic disease in which the liver, otherwise structural an functionally normal, produces more than 90% of an abnormal protein (TTR Met30) whose deposits are responsible for symptoms. Liver Transplantation is currently the only efficient therapy available for FAP patients. Portugal is the country in the world where FAP is most prevalent. The Portuguese neurologist Corino de Andrade was the first to recognize in 1951 this particular form of inherited polyneuropathy, which is also known by the name of Andrade disease. Liver Transplantation started as a program in Portugal in September 1992. The first patient transplanted in Lisbon, Hospital Curry Cabral, was a FAP patient. From the beginning we did realize that competition among waiting lists of FAP and Hepatic patients would come to be a complex problem we had to deal with, on clinical and ethical grounds. There was one possible way-out. FAP livers could be of some utility themselves as liver grafts. Anatomically and functionally normal, except for the inherited abnormal trace, those livers could possibly be transplanted in selected hepatic patients. Nevertheless the FAP liver carried with it the ability to produce the mutant TTR protein. One could expect, considering the natural history of the disease that several decades would lapse before the recipient could suffer symptomatic neurologic disease, if at all. In Coimbra, Portugal, Linhares Furtado performed in 1995 the first transplant of a FAP liver to a patient with metastatic malignant disease, as a sequential or “domino” transplant. FAP Liver Transplant patients, because of some dysautonomic labiality and unexpected reactions when they are subjected to surgery, take special advantage when piggyback technique is used for hepatectomy. This technique leaves the vena cava of the patient undisturbed, so that return of blood to the heart is affected minimally, so that veno-venous extracorporeal bypass will not be necessary. The advantages of piggyback technique could not be afforded to FAP patients who became donors for sequential liver transplantation, before we did introduce our liver reconstruction technique in 2001. The hepatectomy took the vena cava together with the liver, which is the classical technique, and the use of extracorporeal veno-venous bypass was of necessity in most cases. The reconstruction technique we developed in our center and used for the first time in the world in 2001 consists in applying venous grafts to the supra-hepatic ostia of piggyback resected FAP livers so that the organ could be grafted to a hepatic patient whose liver was itself resected with preservation of the vena cava. This is the double piggyback sequential transplant of the liver. It is the objective of this thesis to evaluate the results of this technique that we did introduce, first of all that it is reliable and reproducible, secondly that the FAP donor is not subjected to any additional harm during the procedure, and finally that the recipient has the same prospects of a successful transplant as if the liver was collected from a cadaver donor. Our series of liver transplantation on FAP patients and sequential liver transplants represent both the largest experience in the world. To achieve the analysis of the questions mentioned above, we did refer to our data-base from September 1992 to November 2008. The reconstructive technique that we did introduce is feasible: it could be done with success in every case ion our series. It is also reproducible. It has been adopted by many international centers of reference that did mention it in their own publications. We do refer to our data-base in what concerns the safety for the FAP donor.Five years survival of FAP transplanted patients that have been donors (n=190) has been slightly superior to those who were not (n=77), with no statistical significance. However, if we consider five year survival of FAP transplanted patients after the beginning of sequential transplant program in our center, survival is better among those patients whose liver was used as a transplant (87% survival versus 71%, p=0.047). In what concerns recipients of FAP livers: Some short-term benefit of less perioperative morbi-mortality mainly less hemorrhage. In some groups of particular pathologies, there is a strong suggestion of better survival, however the scarcity of numbers make the differences not statistically significant. Patients with cirrhosis HVC (83% versus73%) and patients with primitive hepatic cancer within Milan criteria (survival of 70% versus 58%) are good examples. There is one relevant problem we left beyond discussion in the present work: this is the long-term impact of possible recurrence of FAP symptoms among recipients of sequential transplants. In Conclusion: The reconstruction technique that we did develop and introduce is consistently workable and reproducible. It is safe for FAP donors with the advantage that removal of vena cava can be avoided. Hepatic patients transplanted with those livers suffer no disadvantages and have the benefit of less hemorrhage. There is also a suggestion that survival could be better in cirrhosis HVC and primary liver cancer patients.

Time series morphological analysis applied to biomedical signals events detection

Dissertation submitted in the fufillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master in Biomedical Engineering

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Real convergence in per capita output and growth in Eurozone: A time-series approach

The real convergence hypothesis has spurred a myriad of empirical tests and approaches in the economic literature. This Work Project intends to test for real output and growth convergence in all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of output and output growth gaps of 14 Eurozone countries. This paper follows a time-series approach, as it tests for the presence of unit roots and persistence changes in the above mentioned pairs of output gaps, as well as for the existence of growth convergence with autoregressive models. Overall, significantly greater evidence has been found to support growth convergence rather than output convergence in our sample.