Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Criminosos popularizados na narrativa de divulgação (De 1838 aos Alvores da República)

O presente estudo incide sobre obras impressas que tomaram como motivo central as «façanhas» de criminosos com referência histórica celebrizados em Portugal na segunda metade do século XIX e inícios de XX e mostra que, enquanto narrativas elaboradas para o grande público, os textos foram não só um reflexo da popularidade prévia dos famigerados transgressores, como também um fator incontornável da sua «lendarização» ao longo de décadas. São as seguintes as figuras dos infratores que protagonizaram as ficções em apreço: José Joaquim de Sousa Reis, ou «o Remexido» (1797-1838), Diogo Alves, ou «o Pancada» (1810-1841), Francisco de Matos Lobo (1814-1842), José Teixeira da Silva, ou «o José do Telhado» (1816-1875), João Victor da Silva Brandão, ou «o João Brandão de Midões» (1825-1880), e Vicente Urbino de Freitas (1859-1913). A tese agora apresentada aborda um corpus textual de características singulares, nunca antes coligido nem estudado. Comprova que os textos sobre as figuras criminosas tiveram uma função iminentemente noticiosa, pedagógico-edificante e política, apropriando-se de relatos orais, adotando procedimentos de atestação da veracidade (transcrição de documentos na primeira pessoa, referenciação cronológica, espacial, geográfica dos eventos, alusão às fontes) e incorporando diversas fontes do conhecimento dos crimes, quer de origem popular (geralmente designadas de «musa popular», «tradição»), quer de caráter erudito e teórico-científico («estudo», «estudo social»). Assim, foram analisadas as condições históricas excecionais nas quais as ficções emergiram: as características específicas do seu universo editorial, a apropriação a um público amplo (o formato de coleção, uso de sinopses e de outros elementos gráficos), as regularidades discursivas das obras (ocorrência de determinados dispositivos de organização textual), os procedimentos narrativos (recurso abundante a paratextos com intuito explicativo e aproximação a modalidades ficcionais conhecidas do público da época) e, ainda, as configurações imagéticas inspiradas nos discursos oficiais (influência de ciências e doutrinas epocais emergentes, como a criminologia, a antropologia criminal, a frenologia, a psiquiatria, a sociologia). Em suma, estas edições produzidas em diversos contextos e por um elenco autoral heterogéneo não só viveram da relação com as edições predecessoras, ao longo de gerações, como recriaram e ampliaram as «façanhas» dos transgressores em função de diversos propósitos e fontes: ampla divulgação dos casos criminais, condenação pública dos infratores, análise médico-científica dos sujeitos culpados, especulação política, pressão sobre o foro judiciário, edificação moral do público leitor. Trata-se, sem dúvida, de produções únicas, que erigiram a comemoração dos facínoras e sucessivamente reinscreveram as suas histórias reais na problemática do homem criminal e na consciência ética do seu tempo.