9 resultados para Random error


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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol.33

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RESUMO: Desde 1976 que as Forças Armadas desenvolvem acções de prevenção do consumo de drogas e álcool. Na década de 80 foi criada capacidade laboratorial e deu-se início a um programa de rastreios toxicológicos. No quinquénio 2001 a 2005, as proporções de resultados positivos, associando todos os tipos de rastreio, variaram entre 3,7% e 1,5%. De Outubro de 2006 a Julho de 2007 realizou-se um estudo analítico transversal, para estimar a prevalência do consumo de drogas (canabinóides, opiáceos, cocaína e anfetaminas) num dos Ramos das Forças Armadas, com base nos despistes realizados pelo seu laboratório. Foi utilizada uma amostra aleatória simples de 1039 militares, profissionais (QP) e contratados (RC), no activo e de ambos os sexos. Desde a nomeação dos militares a rastrear, passando pela cadeia de custódia das amostras até à obtenção do resultado foi utilizado apoio informático específico. O processo de pesquisa utilizou duas técnicas de triagem por imunoensaio e tecnologia de confirmação por GC/MS, de acordo com as recomendações europeias, permitindo estabelecer uma metodologia standard para organizações e empresas. A prevalência estimada, de consumidores de droga, foi de 3,8/1.000, para um erro de 0,37%. O número de casos registado (4) não permitiu a utilização de testes estatísticos que conduzissem à identificação de características determinantes da positividade, mas não deixou de revelar aspectos inesperados. A observação de séries de casos e a realização regular de estudos epidemiológicos, que ajudem a redefinir grupos alvo e a perceber a dimensão, as determinantes e as consequências do consumo de drogas é sugerida, em conclusão.--------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ: Depuis 1976, les Forces Armées mettent au point des mesures visant à prévenir la consommation de drogues et d'alcool. En 1980, fut créé capacité laboratoriel et ont ensuite commencé un programme de dépistage toxicologique. Au cours des cinq années allant de 2001 à 2005, les proportions de consommateurs, impliquant tous les types de dépistage, allaient de 3,7% à 1,5 %. D'octobre 2006 à juillet 2007, une étude analytique transversale a été organisée pour évaluer la prévalence de l’usage de drogues (cannabis, opiacés, cocaïne et amphétamines) dans une branche de les Forces Armées, basée sur les dépistages faites par un laboratoire militaire, à l'aide d'un échantillon aléatoire de 1039 militaires, professionnels (QP) et sous contract (RC), à l’actif et des deux sexes. Tout au long du procès, de la nomination des donneurs, en passant par la chaine de garde des échantillons, jusqu’à obtention du résultat, il fut employé un appui informatique sécurisé. Le processus de recherche employa deux techniques de tri par imunoessay et la technologie de confirmation GC/MS, selon les recommandations européennes, permettant d'établir une méthodologie standard pour les organisations et les entreprises. La prévalence estimée fut de 3,8/1.000 pour une marge d’erreur de 0,37%. Le nombre de cas enregistrés (4) n'autorise pas l'utilisation de testes statistiques de menant à l'identification de caractéristiques déterminant de la positivité, mais il permet à révéler des aspects inattendus. L'observation de séries de cas et la tenue régulière d’études épidémiologiques, qui contribuent à redéfinir les groupes cibles et de comprendre l'ampleur, les déterminants et les conséquences de l'usage de drogues, est suggéré, en fin de compte.--------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Since 1976, the Armed Forces, have been developing measures to prevent the use of drugs and alcohol. In 1980, was created laboratory facility which then started a program of toxicological screenings. In the five years running from 2001 to 2005, the proportions of consumers, involving all types of screening, ranged from 3,7% to 1,5%. From October 2006 to July 2007, a cross-sectional study was held to estimate the prevalence of drug use (cannabinoids, opiates, cocaine and amphetamines) in one branch of the Portuguese Armed Forces, based on laboratory screenings, using a random sample of 1039 military, professional (QP) and enlisted (RC), active-duty and of both sexes. Specific computer support was used all the way, from the appointment, including the chain of custody of samples, to the obtaining of the result. The process of search used two techniques for sorting by immunoassay and confirmation technology GC/MS, according to European recommendations, allowing to establish a standard methodology for organizations and companies. The estimated prevalence of drug users was 3.8/1.000 for a 0.37% error (95% confidence interval). The number of cases registered (4) does not permit use of statistical testing leading to the identification of characteristics weighing in the establishing to extrapolate for the population, but it allows revealing unexpected aspects. The observation of series of cases and the regular holding of epidemiological studies, which help redefine target groups and to understand the extent, the determinants and consequences of drug use, is suggested, in conclusion.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

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This work project (WP) is a study about a clustering strategy for Sport Zone. The general cluster study’s objective is to create groups such that within each group the individuals are similar to each other, but should be different among groups. The clusters creation is a mix of common sense, trial and error and some statistical supporting techniques. Our particular objective is to support category managers to better define the product type to be displayed in the stores’ shelves by doing store clusters. This research was carried out for Sport Zone, and comprises an objective definition, a literature review, the clustering activity itself, some factor analysis and a discriminant analysis to better frame our work. Together with this quantitative part, a survey addressed to category managers to better understand their key drivers, for choosing the type of product of each store, was carried out. Based in a non-random sample of 65 stores with data referring to 2013, the final result was the choice of 6 store clusters (Figure 1) which were individually characterized as the main outcome of this work. In what relates to our selected variables, all were important for the distinction between clusters, which proves the adequacy of their choice. The interpretation of the results gives category managers a tool to understand which products best fit the clustered stores. Furthermore, as a side finding thanks to the clusterization, a STP (Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning) was initiated, being this WP the first steps of a continuous process.

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This paper is mainly concerned with the tracking accuracy of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) but also evaluates their performance and pricing efficiency. The findings show that ETFs offer virtually the same return but exhibit higher volatility than their benchmark. It seems that the pricing efficiency, which should come from the creation and redemption process, does not fully hold as equity ETFs show consistent price premiums. The tracking error of the funds is generally small and is decreasing over time. The risk of the ETF, daily price volatility and the total expense ratio explain a large part of the tracking error. Trading volume, fund size, bid-ask spread and average price premium or discount did not have an impact on the tracking error. Finally, it is concluded that market volatility and the tracking error are positively correlated.

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This project tries to assess whether hospitals react to random demand pressure by discharging patients earlier than expected. As a matter of fact, combining an unpredictable demand for medical services with limited and, to some extent, fixed medical resources, generates strong incentives to discharge patients earlier than expected when demand is high − increasing the risk of readmission and decreasing the benefit from treatment. This work was conducted as a way to determine whether those incentives actually affect discharging decisions. Analysis of Portuguese hospitals data shows that hospital utilization levels at the time of admission, prior to the admission and post admission do have a negative impact over the length of stay in hospital, although this impact is quantitatively irrelevant. More than that, larger utilization levels have a positive impact over the probability of being discharged at certain days of the week, indicating that an early discharges problem may exist.