A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Bias in returns to tenure when firm wages and employment comove: A quantitative assessment and solution

It is well known that, unless worker-firm match quality is controlled for, returns to firm tenure (RTT) estimated directly via reduced form wage (Mincer) equations will be biased. In this paper we show that even if match quality is properly controlled for there is a further pervasive source of bias, namely the co-movement of firm employment and firm wages. In a simple mechanical model where human capital is absent and separation is exogenous we show that positively covarying shocks (either aggregate or firm level) to firms employment and wages cause downward bias in OLS regression estimates of RTT. We show that the long established procedures for dealing with "traditional" RTT bias do not circumvent the additional problem we have identified. We argue that if a reduced form estimation of RTT is undertaken, firm-year fixed effects must be added in order to eliminate this bias. Estimates from two large panel datasets from Portugal and Germany show that the bias is empirically important. Adding firm-year fixed effects to the regression increases estimates of RTT in the two respective countries by between 3.5% and 4.5% of wages at 20 years of tenure over 80% (50%) of the estimated RTT level itself. The results extend to tenure correlates used in macroeconomics such as the minimum unemployment rate since joining the firm. Adding firm-year fixed effects changes estimates of these effects also.

The transformation of work? A quantitative evaluation of changes in work in Portugal

This report is made for the Work Package 15 of WORKS project and tries to develop more information on the Portuguese situation in the work structures changes in the recent years. It starts with an analysis of socio- economical indicators (Macro economical indicators, Employment indicators, Consumption, Technology at the workplace, Productivity), and then approaches the situation in terms of work flexibility in its dimensions of time use and New forms of work organisation. It traces employment in business functions with a sectoral and occupational approach, and analyses the occupational change in South Europe with particular relevance to Portugal (skill utilisation and job satisfaction, occupational and industrial mobility, quantitative evaluation of the shape of employment in Europe. Finaly are analysed the globalisation indicators.

Component-based software engineering: a quantitative approach

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Quantitative assessment of modularity of caesarJ components

Dissertação apresentada no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Quantitative easing

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Lawyers, judges, and judicial reform: A conceptual framework and a quantitative exploration

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The social stock exchange: A quantitative exploration

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Spectral and coherence estimates on electroencephalogram recordings during arithmetical tasks

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Comparative effects of sediments contaminated by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic PAHs in Dicentrarchus labrax: a semi-quantitative histopathological approach

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Cohesion decay: quantitative analysis of partial sister chromatid cohesion

Cell division is a highly dynamic process where sister chromatids remain associated with each other from the moment of DNA replication until the later stages of mitosis, giving rise to two daughter cells with equal genomes. The “molecular glue” that links sister DNA molecules is called cohesin, a tripartite ring-like protein complex composed of two Structural Maintenance of Chromosome proteins (Smc1 and Smc3) bridged by a kleisin subunit Rad21/Scc1, that together prevent precocious sister chromatid separation. Accumulating evidence has suggested that cohesion decay may be the cause of segregation errors that underlie certain human pathologies. However it remains to be determined how much cohesin loss abolishes functional sister chromatid cohesion. To answer these questions, we have developed different experimental conditions aiming to titrate the levels of cohesin on mitotic chromosomes in a precise manner. Using these tools, we will determine the minimal amount of cohesin needed to confer functional cohesion. The approaches described here take advantage of a system in Drosophila melanogaster where the Tobacco Etch Virus (TEV) protease can cleave the Rad21 subunit of cohesin leading to precocious sister chromatid separation. Firstly, we tried to express different levels of TEV protease to obtain partial loss of cohesion. However, this approach has failed to produce systematic different levels of sister chromatid separation. Most of the work was therefore focused on a second strategy, for which we established strains with different levels of cohesin sensitive/cohesin resistant to TEV protease. Strains containing different amounts of functional cohesin (TEV resistant) were tested by in vitro cleavage and by in vivo injections in embryos for their ability to promote sister chromatid cohesion. Our results reveal that removal of half of the cohesin complexes does not impair chromosome segregation, implying that chromosome cohesion is less sensitive to cohesin amounts than previously anticipated.

Automated quantitative analysis of MCC-IMS spectra

Ion Mobility Spectrometry coupled with Multi Capillary Columns (MCC -IMS) is a fast analytical technique working at atmospheric pressure with high sensitivity and selectivity making it suitable for the analysis of complex biological matrices. MCC-IMS analysis generates its information through a 3D spectrum with peaks, corresponding to each of the substances detected, providing quantitative and qualitative information. Sometimes peaks of different substances overlap, making the quantification of substances present in the biological matrices a difficult process. In the present work we use peaks of isoprene and acetone as a model for this problem. These two volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that when detected by MCC-IMS produce two overlapping peaks. In this work it’s proposed an algorithm to identify and quantify these two peaks. This algorithm uses image processing techniques to treat the spectra and to detect the position of the peaks, and then fits the data to a custom model in order to separate the peaks. Once the peaks are separated it calculates the contribution of each peak to the data.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Clinical practice guidelines in Portugal : quantitative and qualitative evaluation

RESUMO: Introdução As normas de orientação clínica são ferramentas úteis na translação de conhecimentos desde a investigação para a prática clínica diária. Estratégias ativas de implementação de normas de orientação clínica requerem elevado esforço organizacional e financeiro. Quando os recursos são escassos, as estratégias passivas podem ser a única opção de disseminação. Desde 2011 a Direção Geral da Saúde publicou cento e cinquenta e nove normas de orientação clínica. Nesta Tese é feita uma avaliação do impacto que estratégias de disseminação de normas de orientação clínica têm no padrão de prescrição dos médicos e uma avaliação qualitativa do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. Métodos: O primeiro artigo é um estudo quasi experimental usando uma série de análises temporais interrompida para comparar os níveis observados e esperados de prescrição de inibidores da ciclooxigenasa-2, antes e depois da publicação da norma de orientação clínica sobre a utilização de anti-inflamatórios não esteroides. O segundo estudo é um artigo de opinião e debate no qual numa primeira parte contextualiza o processo das normas da Direcção Geral da Saúde, na segunda parte aponta virtudes e defeitos no processo e a terceira parte constitui uma contribuição com vista à melhoria do processo. Discussão A produção de normas de orientação clínica requer metodologia rigorosa e complexa. A literatura médica revela que a translação de conhecimento é uma tarefa árdua. Estratégias de implementação ativas requerem recursos financeiros e organizacionais sólidos. Estratégias de implementação passivas podem representar uma solução aceitável se os recursos financeiros e organizacionais escasseiam. Pouco é conhecido sobre a eficácia destas estratégias fora do contexto de investigação. Com esta Tese pretendo contribuir para a clarificação desta resposta, outros países e instituições podem ver utilidade nesta informação, bem como pretendo contribuir para a discussão e melhoria do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. ------------------ ABSTRACT: Introduction Clinical practice guidelines can help address the failure to translate research findings into clinical practice. Active clinical practice guidelines implementation strategies require active efforts from organizations and are resource and financially demanding. Passive implementation strategies may represent the only option if resources are scarce. Out of research environment, real world efficacy of passive implementation strategies is still undetermined. Since 2011 the Portuguese General Health Directorate published one hundred and fifty nine guidelines. In this Thesis I evaluate the impact of passive dissemination of clinical practice guideline in clinician’s prescription behavior and review, from a qualitative point of view, the Portuguese clinical practice guideline process. Methods The first study is a quasi-experimental study using a retrospective interrupted time-series analysis design to compare the observed and expected prescription of cyclooxygenase-2 before and after the non steroidal antiinflammatory guideline publication. The second study is an opinion and debate article in which I firstly review the General Health Directorate guideline process. The second part states positive and negative aspects in the process and the third part is a contribution aimed at improving the process in the future. Discussion Clinical practice guidelines production demands a rigorous and complex methodology. medical iterature reveals that knowledge translation is a difficult task. Active implementation strategies demand solid financial and organizational resources. Passive implementation strategies may represent an acceptable solution if financial and organizational resources are scarce. Little is known about the efficacy of these strategies out of the research context. With this Thesis I intend to contribute to clarify this question, other countries and institutions with similar conditions may find this information useful, and also to contribute for the discussion and general improvement of national clinical practice guidelines process.