Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: Evidence from the field

This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals’ forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based (poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The main finding of the paper is that players’ forecasts in both types of tournaments are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology literature. We also find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.

Incremental compilation and deployment for OutSystems Platform

OutSystems Platform is used to develop, deploy, and maintain enterprise web an mobile web applications. Applications are developed through a visual domain specific language, in an integrated development environment, and compiled to a standard stack of web technologies. In the platform’s core, there is a compiler and a deployment service that transform the visual model into a running web application. As applications grow, compilation and deployment times increase as well, impacting the developer’s productivity. In the previous model, a full application was the only compilation and deployment unit. When the developer published an application, even if he only changed a very small aspect of it, the application would be fully compiled and deployed. Our goal is to reduce compilation and deployment times for the most common use case, in which the developer performs small changes to an application before compiling and deploying it. We modified the OutSystems Platform to support a new incremental compilation and deployment model that reuses previous computations as much as possible in order to improve performance. In our approach, the full application is broken down into smaller compilation and deployment units, increasing what can be cached and reused. We also observed that this finer model would benefit from a parallel execution model. Hereby, we created a task driven Scheduler that executes compilation and deployment tasks in parallel. Our benchmarks show a substantial improvement of the compilation and deployment process times for the aforementioned development scenario.

Portuguese footwear

This case study deals with the reasons why the Portuguese Footwear Cluster evolved from a small industry focused on the Portuguese internal market into a high-tech industry capable of designing and producing some of the best and most expensive shoes in the world. It went from using the low labor costs of an under-developed economy to produce long series of shoes for pre-designated brands in Northern Europe to having the ability to produce some of the highest quality shoes in the world, in small orders, designed and delivered in record timing, while offering a service of excellence. In 1960, when Portugal became a founding member of EFTA, the footwear industry in Portugal was globally irrelevant, producing low quality shoes directed to the puny internal market and its African colonies. The new free trade zone with economies much more developed that itself, led to the transfer of the labor-intensive, low skilled manufacture from the UK and Scandinavian countries to Portugal. Mostly through joint ventures, the industry was able to mechanize itself so it could produce shoes in long series at low prices. It grew based on that model up until the 1990s, when the emergence of the Asian countries meant either a different strategy or extinction. Taking advantage of a clarified leadership of its trade association, it used the European funds made available to it during the 1990s, to modernize its factory floors, so it could become more nimble and flexible, expand its design capabilities and dramatically change its image abroad. The role of the trade association, APICCAPS, was instrumental throughout the process going well beyond what came to be expected of trade associations. It used its privileged position to provide understanding regarding the current situation and competitive landscape, alerting for changes ahead and at the same time providing a strategic vision on how to deal with the challenges. Moreover, it helped companies get the resources they needed by creating a research center in collaboration with a University, by creating a process that allowed companies to learn from each other via the show casing of projects sponsored by the association or by helping industrials traveling to locations where new customers could be found. The case study provides insight on how the trade association leadership, which has no formal authority over its members, was able to guide and motivate an industry through a consistent positive approach. That approach focused on the solutions, on the opportunities and on the success stories of companies in the cluster rather than on what was wrong or needed to be addressed. Based on this case, one could use the leadership role of the trade association to discuss and change leaders’ roles and styles in other sectors or even companies.

Post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector

Due to global warming and shrinking fossil fuel resources, politics as well as society urge for a reduction of green house gas (GHG) emissions. This leads to a re-orientation towards a renewable energy sector. In this context, innovation and new technologies are key success factors. Moreover, the renewable energy sector has entered a consolidation stage, where corporate investors and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) gain in importance. Although both M&A and innovation in the renewable energy sector are important corporate strategies, the link between those two aspects has not been examined before. The present thesis examines the research question how M&A influence the acquirer’s post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector. Based on a framework of relevant literature, three hypotheses are defined. First, the relation between non-technology oriented M&A and post-merger innovative performance is discussed. Second, the impact of absolute acquired knowledge on postmerger innovativeness is examined. Third, the target-acquirer relatedness is discussed. A panel data set of 117 firms collected over a period of six years has been analyzed via a random effects negative binomial regression model and a time lag of one year. The results support a non-significant, negative impact of non-technology M&A on postmerger innovative performance. The applied model did not support a positive and significant impact of absolute acquired knowledge on post-merger innovative performance. Lastly, the results suggest a reverse relation than postulated by Hypothesis 3. Targets from the same industry significantly and negatively influence the acquirers’ innovativeness.

Product quality judgments in a two-sequence cue environment

Previous research demonstrated that the sequence of informational cues and the level of distraction have an impact on the judgment of a product’s quality. This study investigates the influence of the force behind the processing of these cues, working memory (WM). The results indicate that without distraction, consumers with low and high WM capacity (WMC) equally base their product evaluation on the first sequential cue. In the presence of a distractor, however, low WM individuals are no longer able to recall the initial cue, and thus derive their product judgment from the final cue. Moreover, evidence of intercultural differences in the perception of product related cues, and their aptitude for signaling a favorable product quality is provided.

Perception of organizational politics and the effect of authenticity and affective commitment on deviance and task performance in contact centers

This study aimed to understand employees’ reactions to organizational politics in Contact Centers. Drawing from a sample of 187 supervisor-employee dyads, we studied the relationship between employees’ perceptions of organizational politics and supervisor-rated task performance and deviance, and mediation effects by authenticity at work and affective commitment. Results indicate that workers tend to react to workplace politics with deviant behavior and worse task performance. We found that the relationship between perceived politics and task performance was mediated by authenticity. The relationship between perceived politics and supervisor-rated deviance was mediated by affective commitment to the organization. Implications for management are discussed.

The relationship between the education level of successor's and the firm performance in German publicly listed family firms- an empirical analysis

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how far the education level of the second or third generation of publicly traded German family firms affects the post-succession firm performance. By conducting a correlational and regression design, the aim is to examine how several variables influence the performance of family firms. Performance measures, for example ROA and Tobin’s q and variables, like Education level and succession periods, examine analytically that a positive succession trend will occur. However, with the used model, only a less rigid model shows empirical evidence.