Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

On project finance and the first road concession in Portugal

In broad sense, Project Financing1 as a mean of financing large scale infrastructural projects worldwide has had a steady growth in popularity for the last 20 years. This growth has been relatively unscathed from most economic cycles. However in the wake of the 2007 systemic Financial Crisis, Project Financing was also in trouble. The liquidity freeze and credit crunch that ensued affected all parties involved. Traditional Lenders, of this type of financial instrument, locked-in long-term contractual obligations, were severely hit with scarcity of funding compounded by rapidly increasing cost of funding. All the while, Banks were “rescued” by the concerted actions of Central Banks and other Multi-Lateral Agencies around the world but at the same time “stressed” by upcoming regulatory effort (Basel Committee). This impact resulted in specific changes to this type of long-term financing. Changes such as Commercial Banks’ increased risk aversion; pricing increase and maturities decrease of credit facilities; enforcement of Market Disruption Event clauses; partial responsibility for project risk by Multilateral Agencies; and adoption of utility-like availability payments in other industrial sectors such as transportation and even social infrastructure. To the extent possible, this report is then divided in three parts. First, it begins with a more instructional part, touching academic literature (theory) and giving the Banks perspective (practice), but mostly as an overview of Project Finance for awareness’ sake. The renowned Harvard Business School professor – Benjamin Esty, states2 that Project Finance is a “relatively unexplored territory for both empirical and theoretical research” which means that academic research efforts are lagging the practice of Project Finance. Second, the report presents a practical case regarding the first Road Concession in Portugal in 1998 ending with the lessons learned 10 years after Financial Close. Lastly, the report concludes with the analysis of the current trends and changes to the industry post Financial Crisis of the late 2000’s. To achieve this I’ll reference relevant papers, books on the subject, online articles and my own experience in the Project Finance Department at a major Portuguese Investment Bank. Regarding the latter, with the signing of a confidentiality agreement, I’m duly omitting sensitive and proprietary bank information.

Development of web services to help risk management of construction projects

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Anti-apolipoprotein A-I antibodies in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease : project plan

RESUMO: A doença de Alzheimer (AD) é a forma mais comum de demência em todo o mundo e sua prevalência deverá duplicar até 2050. Os mecanismos precisos responsáveis pela AD são desconhecidas mas as características histopatológicas estão bem caracterizadas. A hipótese mais importante para a perda neuronal e declínio cognitivo na AD é a cascata amilóide que indica que AD é o resultado da sobreprodução de beta amilóide (Aβ) e / ou remoção ineficaz; a acumulação do BA no cérebro seria o passo crítico na patogénese da AD. Actualmente, a identificação de proteínas que se ligam ao Aβ e modulam a sua agregação e neurotoxicidade pode proporcionar a base para novas abordagens terapêuticas. A apolipoproteína AI (ApoA-I), o principal componente das HDL humanas, interage com o domínio extracelular da proteína precursora de amilóide (APP), bem como com o Aβ. Estudos epidemiológicos têm mostrado uma diminuição acentuada da ApoA-I plasmática em doentes com AD, com uma correlação inversa entre o nível de ApoA-I e o risco de AD. Este trabalho pretende apresentar um projecto que tem como objectivo investigar se os anticorpos anti-apo AI podem impedir a formação de complexos Aβ / ApoA-I, bloqueando o efeito protector da ApoA-I. A hipótese baseia-se na possibilidade dos doentes com AD terem anticorpos anti-ApoA-I plasmáticos e de estes poderem interferir com a formação do complexo no LCR.------- ABSTRACT:Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia world-wide and its prevalence is expected to double by the year 2050. The precise mechanisms responsible for AD are unknown but the histopathologic features are well-characterised. The most compelling hypothesis for neuronal loss and cognitive decline in AD is the amyloid cascade hypothesis which states that AD is the result of amyloid beta (Aβ) overproduction and/or ineffective clearance and its accumulation in the brain would be the critical step in AD pathogenesis. Currently, identification of proteins that bind Aβ and modulate its aggregation and neurotoxicity could provide the basis for novel treatment approaches. Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), the main constituent of human HDL, ApoA-I interacts with the extracellular domain of amyloid precursor protein (APP), as well as with Aβ itself. Epidemiological studies have shown a marked decrease of plasma ApoA-I levels in AD patients, with an inverse correlation between the ApoA-I level and the risk of AD. This work intends to present a project that aims to investigate if anti-ApoA-I antibodies may prevent the formation of the Aβ /ApoA-I complex and by doing so blocking the protective effect of ApoA-I in AD. We base the hypothesis on the possibility that patients with AD might have anti-ApoA-I antibodies in plasma and that these can interfere with the complex formation in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF).

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Implementation of a pilot project for the treatment and prevention of substance abuse in children and adolescents : strengthening families for parents and youths 12-16

RESUMO: Antecendentes: Uma avaliação dos serviços de abuso de substâncias em Barbados identificou a necessidade de programas e serviços que são projetados especificamente para crianças e adolescentes. Objetivo: Realizar programa com base em evidências para reduzir a incidência de abuso de drogas entre crianças e adolescentes por meio do fortalecimento da unidade familiar através de parentalidade positiva, de maior funcionamento familiar e de resistência dos jovens. Método: Dois projetos-piloto foram realizadas com base no programa "Fortalecer as Famílias para Pais e Jovens de 12 a 16 anos (SFPY). O programa de nove semanas foi empregado como uma intervenção para criar laços familiares mais fortes, aumentar a resistência dos jovens e reduzir o abuso de drogas entre crianças e adolescentes de idades de 11 a 16 anos. A decisão foi tomada para incluir participantes de 11 anos desde que as crianças possam estar no primeiro ano da escola secundária nessa idade. IMPLEMENTATION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE PILOT PROJECT FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS 5 Resultados: Quinze famílias participaram em dois projetos-piloto e a avaliação final mostrou que os jovens após o programa, geralmente tornaram-se mais positivos sobre o seu lugar na unidade familiar e sentiram que sua participação no programa foi benéfica. Os pais, da mesma forma, relataram que eles conquistaram, com o programa uma relação mais positiva, uma melhor compreensão das necessidades, e consciência das mudanças de desenvolvimento de seus jovens. Desta forma, considera-se que o programa atingiu o resultado desejado de criar unidades familiares mais fortes. Conclusão: O Projeto Piloto “SFPY” foi bem sucedido em fazer pais e jovens mais conscientes de suas necessidades individuais e de responsabilidades dentro da unidade familiar. Como resultado, o relacionamentos das respectivas famílias melhorou. Estudos baseados em evidências têm demonstrado que um relação familiar mais forte diminui a incidência de uso e abuso de drogas na população adolescente, aumentando os fatores de proteção e diminuindo os fatores de risco. A implementação do programa, que foi desenvolvido e testado no ambiente norte-americano, demonstrou que era transferível para a sociedade de Barbados. No entanto, seu impacto total só pode ser determinado através de um estudo comparativo envolvendo um grupo de controle e / ou uma intervenção alternativa ao abuso de substâncias. Portanto, é recomendável que um estudo comparativo da intervenção SFPY deve envolver uma amostra representativa de adolescentes que estão em estágio de desenvolvimento anterior mais cedo. Evidências já demonstram que o programa é mais eficaz, com impacto mais longo sobre os jovens que participam em uma idade maisABSTRACT:Background: An evaluation of substance abuse services in Barbados has identified the need for programmes and services that are specifically designed for children and adolescents. Aim: To conduct an evidence-based programme to reduce the incidence of substance abuse among children and adolescents by strengthening the family unit through positive parenting, enhanced family functioning and youth resilience. Method: Two pilot projects were conducted based on the ‘Strengthening Families for Parents and Youths 12– 16’ (SFPY) programme. The nine-week programme was employed as an intervention to create stronger family connections, increase youth resiliency and reduce drug abuse among children and adolescents between the ages of 11 to 16. The decision was made to include participants from age 11 since children may be in the first year of secondary school at this age. IMPLEMENTATION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE PILOT PROJECT FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS 3 Results: Fifteen families participated in two pilot projects and an evaluation conducted at the conclusion showed that the youth were generally more positive about their perceived place in the family unit and felt that the being in the programme was generally beneficial. The parents similarly reported they had a more positive relationship with their youths and also had a better understanding of their needs, and an awareness of their developmental changes. This affirmed that the programme had achieved its desired outcome to create stronger family units. Conclusion: The SFPY Pilot Project was successful in making parents and youths more aware of their individual needs and responsibilities within the family unit. As a result relationships within their respective families were strengthened. Evidence-based studies have shown that enhanced family functioning decreases the incidence of substance use and abuse in the adolescent population by increasing protective factors and decreasing risk factors. The implementation of the programme, which was developed and tested in the North American environment, demonstrated that it was transferable to the Barbadian society. However, its full impact can only be determined through a comparative study involving a control group and/or an alternative substance abuse intervention. It is therefore recommended that a comparative study of the SFPY intervention should be delivered to a representative sample of adolescents who are at an earlier developmental stage. Evidence has shown that the programme is more effective, with longer impact on youths who participate at a younger age.

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.