Evaluating Dynamic Signage for Emergency Evacuation using an Immersive Video Environment

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) and great tit (Parus major) in Portugal

In the present work, we studied a common outbreaking Lepidoptera species in Portuguese pine stands – Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) - and one of its potential predators – Parus major (L.). The population dynamics of the immature stages of the Lepidoptera was studied in several types of Pinus pinaster (Aiton) plantations in three different areas: Setúbal Peninsula, Abrantes and National Pine Forest of Leiria. Location and plantation structure was the most important factors determining population density of T. pityocampa. Setubal and Abrantes was highly susceptible to attacks by the Lepidoptera, whereas Leiria had lower densities. Young and homogeneous pine stands was more susceptible to attacks than older and more heterogeneous pines stands. However, a desynchronized population of T. pityocampa, in which the larvae develops during summer instead of during winter, reached high densities also in Leiria. The impact of several mortality factors and climatic conditions on the immature stages of the insect (eggs and larvae), in normal and desynchronized populations are discussed, as well as possible evolutionary implications of the sudden appearance of the new version of T. pityocampa. The break of the pupa diapause and adult emergence times the annual life cycle of this insect. Adults from the desynchronized population emerged earlier than adults from the normal population, which in turn determined the change in the larvae development period. Different factors, potentially affecting the timing of adult emergence in both normal and abnormal populations are also discussed. To study P. Major, nest-boxes were placed in the areas of Setúbal and Leiria and they were monitored during three seasons. The nest-boxes increased the density of breeding and wintering birds in the studied pine plantations, indicating that a lack of natural holes are in fact a limiting factor for this populations. The earliest breeding start for this species was recorded in my study area, indicating that Portuguese coastal pines provide good breeding conditions earlier than in other areas of Europe and North Africa. This leads to an overlap between the end of the larvae stage of T. pityocampa and the beginning of the breeding season of P. major. Key-words: Thaumetopoea pityocampa, Parus major, Pinus pinaster, population dynamics, Portugal.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Spatial analysis of suicide attack incidences in Kabul City

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Intrusion tolerant routing with data consensus in wireless sensor networks

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Share and Strife - The Strait of Melaka and the Portuguese (16th and 17th centuries)

The Strait of Melaka is the longest strait in the world, stretching for about 800 km from the northern tip of Sumatra to Singapore. It exhibits a dual character like no other, being simultaneously a privileged linking passage of two seas and two knots of human civilization – India and China – and a »bottleneck« that constrains the maritime connections between them. Today, the latter aspect is globally dominant. The strait is considered and analysed mostly as an obstacle rather than a linking point: how to reach China from the West or elsewhere is no longer an issue, but securing the vital flows that pass into the strait on a daily basis undoubtedly is. Accidents, natural catastrophes, political local crises or terrorist attacks are permanent dangers that could cut this umbilical cord of world trade and jeopardize a particularly sensitive and vulnerable area; piracy and pollution are the most common local threats and vulnerabilities.

Continuidade e mudança. O sistema internacional no post‐Guerra Fria

O fim da Guerra Fria é um caso inédito de mudança pacífica da estrutura internacional, em que os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética transcendem a divisão bipolar para decidir os termos da paz no quadro das instituições que definem o modelo de ordenamento multilateral, consolidando a sua legitimidade. Nesse contexto, ao contrário dos casos precedentes de reconstrução internacional no fim de uma guerra hegemónica, o novo sistema do post-Guerra Fria, caracterizado pela unipolaridade, pela regionalização e pela homogeneização, forma-se num quadro de continuidade institucional. A ordem política do post-Guerra Fria é um sistema misto em que as tensões entre a hierarquia unipolar e a anarquia multipolar, a integração global e a fragmentação regional e a homogeneidade e a heterogeneidade política, ideológica e cultural condicionam as estratégias das potências. As crises internacionais vão pôr à prova a estabilidade da nova ordem e a sua capacidade para garantir mudanças pacíficas. A primeira década do post-Guerra Fria mostra a preponderância dos Estados Unidos e a sua confiança crescente, patente nas Guerras do Golfo Pérsico e dos Balcãs, bem como na crise dos Estreitos da Formosa. A reacção aos atentados do "11 de Setembro" revela uma tentação imperial da potência unipolar, nomeadamente com a invasão do Iraque, que provoca uma crise profunda da comunidade de segurança ocidental. A vulnerabilidade do centro da ordem internacional é confirmada pela crise constitucional europeia e pela crise financeira global. Essas crises não alteram a estrutura de poder mas aceleram a erosão da ordem multilateral e criam um novo quadro de possibilidades para a evolução internacional, que inclui uma escalada dos conflitos num quadro de multipolaridade regional, uma nova polarização entre as potências democráticas conservadoras e uma coligação revisionista autoritária, bem como a restauração de um concerto entre as principais potências internacionais.