Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Oil, foreign aid and FDI flows: The missing link?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s

This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

Application of ionic liquids and enzymes for the removal of proteinaceous layers from polychrome of works of art and evaluation of the cleaning effectiveness

Dissertação Apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências da Conservação, especialização em Pintura

The macroeconomic effects of (different) oil shocks: A VAR approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Differential exploitation of cashew - a low conflict crop - by sympatric humans and chimpanzees

Modification of natural areas by human activities mostly has a negative impact on wildlife by increasing the geographical and ecological overlap between people and animals. This can result in escalating levels of competition and conflict between humans and wildlife, for example over crops. However, data on specific crops and crop parts that are unattractive to wildlife yet important for human livelihoods are surprisingly scarce, especially considering their potential application to reducing crop damage by wildlife. Here we examine the co-utilization of a nationally important and spatially abundant cash crop, cashew Anacardium occidentalis, by people and chimpanzees Pan troglodytes verus inhabiting a forested–agricultural matrix in Cantanhez National Park in Guinea-Bissau. In this Park people predominantly harvest the marketable cashew nut and discard the unprofitable fruit whereas chimpanzees only consume the fruit. Local farmers generally perceive a benefit of raiding by chimpanzees as they reportedly pile the nuts, making harvesting easier. By ensuring that conflict levels over crops, especially those with high economic importance, remain low, the costs of living in proximity to wildlife can potentially be reduced. Despite high levels of deforestation associated with cashew farming, these findings point to the importance of cashew as a low-conflict crop in this area.

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of CO2 injection into deep aquifers

One of the biggest challenges for humanity is global warming and consequently, climate changes. Even though there has been increasing public awareness and investments from numerous countries concerning renewable energies, fossil fuels are and will continue to be in the near future, the main source of energy. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is believed to be a serious measure to mitigate CO2 concentration. CCS briefly consists of capturing CO2 from the atmosphere or stationary emission sources and transporting and storing it via mineral carbonation, in oceans or geological media. The latter is referred to as carbon capture and geological storage (CCGS) and is considered to be the most promising of all solutions. Generally it consists of a storage (e.g. depleted oil reservoirs and deep saline aquifers) and sealing (commonly termed caprock in the oil industry) formations. The present study concerns the injection of CO2 into deep aquifers and regardless injection conditions, temperature gradients between carbon dioxide and the storage formation are likely to occur. Should the CO2 temperature be lower than the storage formation, a contractive behaviour of the reservoir and caprock is expected. The latter can result in the opening of new paths or re-opening of fractures, favouring leakage and compromising the CCGS project. During CO2 injection, coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical phenomena occur, which due to their complexity, hamper the assessment of each relative influence. For this purpose, several analyses were carried out in order to evaluate their influences but focusing on the thermal contractive behaviour. It was finally concluded that depending on mechanical and thermal properties of the pair aquifer-seal, the sealing caprock can undergo significant decreases in effective stress.