Experimental and modeling studies on reverse electrodialysis for sustainable power generation

A potentially renewable and sustainable source of energy is the chemical energy associated with solvation of salts. Mixing of two aqueous streams with different saline concentrations is spontaneous and releases energy. The global theoretically obtainable power from salinity gradient energy due to World’s rivers discharge into the oceans has been estimated to be within the range of 1.4-2.6 TW. Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is one of the emerging, membrane-based, technologies for harvesting the salinity gradient energy. A common RED stack is composed by alternately-arranged cation- and anion-exchange membranes, stacked between two electrodes. The compartments between the membranes are alternately fed with concentrated (e.g., sea water) and dilute (e.g., river water) saline solutions. Migration of the respective counter-ions through the membranes leads to ionic current between the electrodes, where an appropriate redox pair converts the chemical salinity gradient energy into electrical energy. Given the importance of the need for new sources of energy for power generation, the present study aims at better understanding and solving current challenges, associated with the RED stack design, fluid dynamics, ionic mass transfer and long-term RED stack performance with natural saline solutions as feedwaters. Chronopotentiometry was used to determinate diffusion boundary layer (DBL) thickness from diffusion relaxation data and the flow entrance effects on mass transfer were found to avail a power generation increase in RED stacks. Increasing the linear flow velocity also leads to a decrease of DBL thickness but on the cost of a higher pressure drop. Pressure drop inside RED stacks was successfully simulated by the developed mathematical model, in which contribution of several pressure drops, that until now have not been considered, was included. The effect of each pressure drop on the RED stack performance was identified and rationalized and guidelines for planning and/or optimization of RED stacks were derived. The design of new profiled membranes, with a chevron corrugation structure, was proposed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The performance of the suggested corrugation geometry was compared with the already existing ones, as well as with the use of conductive and non-conductive spacers. According to the estimations, use of chevron structures grants the highest net power density values, at the best compromise between the mass transfer coefficient and the pressure drop values. Finally, long-term experiments with natural waters were performed, during which fouling was experienced. For the first time, 2D fluorescence spectroscopy was used to monitor RED stack performance, with a dedicated focus on following fouling on ion-exchange membrane surfaces. To extract relevant information from fluorescence spectra, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) was performed. Moreover, the information obtained was then used to predict net power density, stack electric resistance and pressure drop by multivariate statistical models based on projection to latent structures (PLS) modeling. The use in such models of 2D fluorescence data, containing hidden, but extractable by PARAFAC, information about fouling on membrane surfaces, considerably improved the models fitting to the experimental data.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Impacto da crise no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH-SIDA em Portugal Continental : análise temporal 2001-2012

RESUMO - Contexto: O início da crise económica em Portugal no ano de 2009 colocou o país numa grave recessão económica aliada a diversas medidas de austeridade. Como consequência assistiu-se, ao nível nacional, uma diminuição do PIB, aumento do desemprego e assim como uma série de restrições orçamentais em várias áreas, nomeadamente a da saúde. Apesar de existir inúmeros estudos que avaliaram o impacto das recessões económicas na saúde os resultados são controversos e não existe um consenso quanto a esta associação. No que se refere às doenças infeciosas o número de estudos é bastante mais reduzido. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de analisar o impacto da crise atual no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH/SIDA, de forma a complementar a escassa evidência existente neste domínio. Metodologia: Foram analisados 53,296 episódios de internamento nos hospitais do SNS entre o ano de 2001 e 2012, cujo diagnóstico principal é a infeção pelo VIH/SIDA. Considerou-se o ano de 2009 como o ano inicial da crise. Através de regressões multivariadas avaliou-se o impacto da crise no volume de doentes internados, duração de internamento, número de co-morbilidades, risco de ser admitido via urgência e risco de mortalidade no internamento. Adicionalmente repetiu-se a análise por região NUTS II de Portugal Continental (Norte, Alentejo, LVT, Centro e Algarve). Resultados: A crise não teve impacto no volume de doentes internados. No entanto, após o ano de 2009, registou-se uma diminuição de 5.6% na duração de internamento; um aumento de 1.6% no número de co-morbilidades; um aumento de 11.1% no risco de ser admitido via urgência e um aumento de 8.6% do risco de mortalidade no internamento. As análises por região permitiram verificar que as regiões mais afetadas pela crise foram a região LVT e a região Norte. Conclusão: A crise em Portugal não teve impacto na incidência de internamentos por VIH/SIDA. Porém o aumento do número de co-morbilidades, do risco de ser admitido via urgência e do risco de mortalidade no internamento parece refletir um agravamento da severidade dos casos após o ano de 2009. Adicionalmente a diminuição da duração de internamento com o efeito da crise poderá refletir tanto aumento da eficiência dos cuidados prestados ou ao contrário, uma diminuição da sua qualidade.

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Cognitive models for the concept of angle

Tese de doutoramento em Filosofia

Constraint reasoning for differential models

The basic motivation of this work was the integration of biophysical models within the interval constraints framework for decision support. Comparing the major features of biophysical models with the expressive power of the existing interval constraints framework, it was clear that the most important inadequacy was related with the representation of differential equations. System dynamics is often modelled through differential equations but there was no way of expressing a differential equation as a constraint and integrate it within the constraints framework. Consequently, the goal of this work is focussed on the integration of ordinary differential equations within the interval constraints framework, which for this purpose is extended with the new formalism of Constraint Satisfaction Differential Problems. Such framework allows the specification of ordinary differential equations, together with related information, by means of constraints, and provides efficient propagation techniques for pruning the domains of their variables. This enabled the integration of all such information in a single constraint whose variables may subsequently be used in other constraints of the model. The specific method used for pruning its variable domains can then be combined with the pruning methods associated with the other constraints in an overall propagation algorithm for reducing the bounds of all model variables. The application of the constraint propagation algorithm for pruning the variable domains, that is, the enforcement of local-consistency, turned out to be insufficient to support decision in practical problems that include differential equations. The domain pruning achieved is not, in general, sufficient to allow safe decisions and the main reason derives from the non-linearity of the differential equations. Consequently, a complementary goal of this work proposes a new strong consistency criterion, Global Hull-consistency, particularly suited to decision support with differential models, by presenting an adequate trade-of between domain pruning and computational effort. Several alternative algorithms are proposed for enforcing Global Hull-consistency and, due to their complexity, an effort was made to provide implementations able to supply any-time pruning results. Since the consistency criterion is dependent on the existence of canonical solutions, it is proposed a local search approach that can be integrated with constraint propagation in continuous domains and, in particular, with the enforcing algorithms for anticipating the finding of canonical solutions. The last goal of this work is the validation of the approach as an important contribution for the integration of biophysical models within decision support. Consequently, a prototype application that integrated all the proposed extensions to the interval constraints framework is developed and used for solving problems in different biophysical domains.

Diversity in Teams: Source of Conflict or Source of Creativity? Investigating Hidden Mental Models

The workforce in organizations today is becoming increasingly diverse. Consequently the role of diversity management is heavily discussed with respect to the question how diversity influences the productivity of a group. Empirical studies show that on one hand there is a potential for increasing productivity but on the other hand it might be as well that conflicts arise due to the heterogeneity of the group. Usually according empirical studies are based on interviews, questionnaires and/or observations. These methods imply that answers are highly selective and filtered. In order to make the invisible visible, to have access to mental models of team members the paper will present an empirical study on the self-understanding of groups based on an innovative research method, called “mind-scripting”.

Estimation and hypothesis testing in mixed linear models

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Matemática, Estatística, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

A behavioral analysis tool for models of software systems

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

Simulation of the velocity field in compound channel flow using different closure models

1st European IAHR Congress,6-4 May, Edinburg, Scotland

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Polyglutamine diseases (PolyQ): construction and characterization of yeast models

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

A framework to operate transformations between distinct models differing in modelling concepts

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Massive shift in the pneumococcal nasopharyngeal flora after the 7-valent conjugate vaccine: epidemiological studies and testing pathogenic potential in animal models

Dissertation presented to obtain the PhD degree in Biology/Molecular Biology by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica