Exploraty Multivariate Statistical Methods Applied to Pharmaceutical Industry CRM Data

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Digital Divide Across the European Union

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Digital Divide Across the European Union

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Extremum estimators and stochastic optimization methods

Submitted in partial fulfillment for the Requirements for the Degree of PhD in Mathematics, in the Speciality of Statistics in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Epidemiologia e Saúde Públi

RESUMO - Visa-se explicitar a origem, a razão de ser, a natureza e o que se perspectiva da relação entre a Epidemiologia e a Saúde Pública, através de uma leitura histórica. As duas entidades foram-se definindo e fazendo sentido em conjunto, com sucessos e, também, muita polémica, desde há milénios e até meados do século XIX. Nesta época, uma combinação de circunstâncias proporcionou-lhes uma explosão de crescimento e de definição, de par com várias outras áreas disciplinares. Desde o antigo relato bíblico de como boa alimentação explica o bom estado de saúde, até à valorização científica das condicionantes sociais e económicas da saúde por Marmot e Rose, passando por «miasmas» causando doença e pela deslocação do conceito de risco individual de saúde para o de risco populacional — com as implicações inerentes a essa importante inovação —, este percurso permite identificar as fundações de tão notável simbiose, explicar o estado presente, vê-la evoluir e achar nela o significado do património hoje disponível, e o que ele promete. Algumas discrepâncias quanto à designação dos seus métodos, bem como a contínua discussão quanto à sua verdadeira natureza e orientação futura, atestam a juventude da Epidemiologia como disciplina científica. Entretanto, a Saúde Pública esforça-se por manter a sua essência integradora, à medida que outras disciplinas contribuem mais para que concretize os seus objectivos; é desafiada pela exposição das populações, em larga escala, a factores de doença, por vezes de intensidade mínima, e pelo surgimento de novas doenças ou a ampliação do volume de outras na população, muitas vezes não respeitando fronteiras. A história dessa simbiose mostra bem que conhecer o modo como uma doença se origina permite controlá-la na população, ou mesmo evitá-la, e que é grande o número de problemas que, em sinergia, as duas disciplinas podem clarificar e resolver. Assim, a Epidemiologia oferece à Saúde Pública explicações (olhos, inteligência e linguagem) para os problemas de saúde das populações — o que permite à segunda saber sobre o quê agir —, cenários de possível evolução dos problemas — o que permite aos decisores optarem em função de diferentes pressupostos, sobre como agir — e capacidade de juízo sobre os resultados das acções empreendidas, em simultâneo com a elevação do nível de consciência, de compreensão e de intervenção quanto ao que se está a passar, tanto pelos profissionais, como pela população — transferência do conhecimento. Facilmente se antecipa que a relação entre as duas disciplinas irá evoluir para maior complexidade e, também, solicitação e exigência da Saúde Pública sobre a Epidemiologia, que terá que corresponder em utilidade. E esta, continuando a subespecializar-se e a sofisticar-se tanto nos métodos, como nos enfoques sobre categorias específicas de factores, precisará de progredir muito na gestão da sua consistência enquanto corpo de conhecimento integrado e com peculiaridades metodológicas, à semelhança da Saúde Pública.O modo como evoluirá a relação entre ambas depende ainda da evolução dos próprios problemas, conceitos, teorias e soluções relacionados com a saúde das populações, e ainda do desenvolvimento das demais disciplinas chamadas à integração por ambas, para enfrentarem esses desafios. Nomeadamente, a Epidemiologia terá que gerir com perícia dificuldades já identificadas, como: incorporar métodos qualitativos de investigação na sua fortíssima tradição e cultura quantitativa; operacionalizar satisfatoriamente o conceito de «risco atribuível na população», ao serviço da definição de prioridades de acção dirigida às necessidades de saúde; aperfeiçoar modelos de interpretação causal que respeitem a multicausalidade; aproveitar as técnicas estatísticas de análise multivariada, sem se perder na abstracção dos seus modelos; desenvolver a investigação nas dimensões positivas de saúde, além da doença, para contribuir melhor para a realização da Saúde Pública, sua principal cliente e fornecedora de oportunidades.--------------------------ABSTRACT - The aim of the author is to explicit the origin, the rationale, the nature and the prospects of the relationship between Epidemiology and Public health, through an historic approach. The two entities have been defining and making sense together, by achieving successes, but also with much controversy, since millennia ago, until mid XIX century. A combination of circumstances provided them the opportunity for an explosion of growth and definition, then, alongside several other disciplines. From the ancient biblical report on how good food explains good health, up to the scientific appreciation of both social and economical constraints to health by Marmot and Rose, passing through «miasma» causing disease and through displacing from individual health risk to population risk — with the inherent implications of that important innovation —, this route allows the identification of the foundations of such remarkable symbiosis, the explanation of current status, to see its evolution and find in it the meaning of today’s heritage and what it promises. Some discrepancies on the name of its methods, as well as the continuing discussion about its true nature and future orientation, attest Epidemiology’s youth as a scientific discipline. Meanwhile, Public Health strives to keep its integrating essence, while other disciplines increasingly contribute so that it achieves its objectives; it is challenged by large scale population exposure to disease factors, sometimes with a minimum intensity, and by new diseases emerging in the population or by old ones getting amplified, often not respecting regions boundaries. The history of such a symbiosis shows that knowing the way a disease is generated allows to control it in the population, or even to avoid it, and that the number of problems that the two disciplines are able to clarify and solve together in synergy is considerable. Therefore, Epidemiology offers Public Health explanations (eyes, intelligence and language) for populations’s health problems — allowing that the latter knows on what to act —, scenarios on how problems may tend to evolve — allowing decision-makers to make their choices as a function of different assumptions, on how to act — and judgement capabilities on the results of already undertaken actions, accompanied by the raising of conscience level, understanding and intervention of what is going on by both professionals and the population – knowledge transfer. It is easy to anticipate that the relationship between both disciplines will develop towards increasing complexity and demand from Public Health to Epidemiology, and that this one will have to correspond in usefulness. And the latter, while continuing its subspecialisation and sophistication either in its methods, or in its approaches to specific factor categories, will need to progress in managing its consistency as an integrated body of knowledge having methodological peculiarities, similarly to Public Health. Further, the way the relationship between both will evolve depends on the evolution of the problems themselves, of the concepts, theories and solutions related to the health of populations, and on the development of remaining disciplines called to integration by both, in other to face those problems. Namely, Epidemiology will have to manage with expertise some already known difficulties, as: the inclusion of qualitative research methods in its very strong quantitative tradition and culture; to grant satisfactory operation to the «population attributable risk» concept, in support to the definition of action priorities envisaging health needs; to improve causal interpretation models that comply with multicausality; to take advantage of multivariate statistical techniques, without get

Energy-dispersive x-ray fluorescence analysis of modern coloured glasses from Marinha Grande (Portugal)

X-Ray Spectrom. 2003; 32: 396–401

Multiple sequence alignment correction using constraints

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do European Master in Computational Logics, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Computational Logics

Modelling and optimization of the ion exchange membrane bioreactor for removal of anionic pollutants from drinking water streams

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Engenharia Bioquímica

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

Behavioural assessment impacts on the performance results

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Spatial Patterns and Irregularities of the electoral data: general elections in Canada

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Experimental and modeling studies on reverse electrodialysis for sustainable power generation

A potentially renewable and sustainable source of energy is the chemical energy associated with solvation of salts. Mixing of two aqueous streams with different saline concentrations is spontaneous and releases energy. The global theoretically obtainable power from salinity gradient energy due to World’s rivers discharge into the oceans has been estimated to be within the range of 1.4-2.6 TW. Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is one of the emerging, membrane-based, technologies for harvesting the salinity gradient energy. A common RED stack is composed by alternately-arranged cation- and anion-exchange membranes, stacked between two electrodes. The compartments between the membranes are alternately fed with concentrated (e.g., sea water) and dilute (e.g., river water) saline solutions. Migration of the respective counter-ions through the membranes leads to ionic current between the electrodes, where an appropriate redox pair converts the chemical salinity gradient energy into electrical energy. Given the importance of the need for new sources of energy for power generation, the present study aims at better understanding and solving current challenges, associated with the RED stack design, fluid dynamics, ionic mass transfer and long-term RED stack performance with natural saline solutions as feedwaters. Chronopotentiometry was used to determinate diffusion boundary layer (DBL) thickness from diffusion relaxation data and the flow entrance effects on mass transfer were found to avail a power generation increase in RED stacks. Increasing the linear flow velocity also leads to a decrease of DBL thickness but on the cost of a higher pressure drop. Pressure drop inside RED stacks was successfully simulated by the developed mathematical model, in which contribution of several pressure drops, that until now have not been considered, was included. The effect of each pressure drop on the RED stack performance was identified and rationalized and guidelines for planning and/or optimization of RED stacks were derived. The design of new profiled membranes, with a chevron corrugation structure, was proposed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The performance of the suggested corrugation geometry was compared with the already existing ones, as well as with the use of conductive and non-conductive spacers. According to the estimations, use of chevron structures grants the highest net power density values, at the best compromise between the mass transfer coefficient and the pressure drop values. Finally, long-term experiments with natural waters were performed, during which fouling was experienced. For the first time, 2D fluorescence spectroscopy was used to monitor RED stack performance, with a dedicated focus on following fouling on ion-exchange membrane surfaces. To extract relevant information from fluorescence spectra, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) was performed. Moreover, the information obtained was then used to predict net power density, stack electric resistance and pressure drop by multivariate statistical models based on projection to latent structures (PLS) modeling. The use in such models of 2D fluorescence data, containing hidden, but extractable by PARAFAC, information about fouling on membrane surfaces, considerably improved the models fitting to the experimental data.

Changes in prescribing patterns of benzodiazepines after training of general practitioners

RESUMO: Introdução: As benzodiazepinas são os fármacos ansiolíticos e hipnóticos mais utilizados. O elevado consumo destes fármacos tem representado uma preocupação devido aos efeitos secundários do seu uso prolongado e dependência. Portugal tem a maior utilização de benzodiazepinas na Europa. Este estudo pretende analisar a alteração do padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas após uma intervenção com clínicos gerais. Métodos: A intervenção consistiu numa sessão educacional a um grupo de clínicos gerais. Foi comparado o padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas dos médicos intervencionados com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionado da mesma região e com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionados de outra região. Analisaram-­‐se as prescrições de 12 meses antes e depois da intervenção. A análise do padrão de prescrição utilizou como metodologia a Dose Diária Definida (DDD) e a Dose Diária Definida por 1000 pacientes por dia (DHD). A análise estatística recorreu a métodos de regressão segmentada. Resultados: Houve uma diminuição no padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas no grupo intervencionado após a intervenção (p=0.005). Houve também uma redução no padrão de prescrição no grupo não intervencionada da mesma região (p=0.037) e no grupo não-intervencionado da região diferente (p=0.010). Analisando por género, prescritores do género feminino prescrevem uma quantidade maior de benzodiazepinas. Os clínicos gerais do género feminino intervencionados tiveram a maior redução na prescrição após a intervenção (p=0.008). Discussão: Os dados demonstraram que a intervenção reduziu a prescrição de benzodiazepinas após a intervenção. A diminuição geral do padrão de prescrição poderá ser explicada pelo efeito de Hawthorne ou pela contaminação entre os três grupos de clínicos gerais. Os dados disponíveis não explicam as diferenças nos padrões de prescrição por género. Conclusão: Este estudo demonstra como uma única intervenção tem um impacto positivo na melhoria dos padrões de prescrição. A replicação desta intervenção poderá representar uma oportunidade para alterar a prescrição de benzodiazepinas em Portugal. -----------------------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: Benzodiazepines are the most utilized anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs. The high consumption of benzodiazepines has been a concern due to the reported side effects of long-­‐term use and dependence. Portugal has the highest benzodiazepine utilisation in Europe. This study aims to analyse the change in General Practitioners’ (GPs) benzodiazepine prescription pattern after na intervention period. Methods: An educational session was delivered to a group of intervened GPs. The benzodiazepine prescription pattern of the intervened group was compared to the pattern of a non-­‐intervened matched group from the same region, and to the pattern of another non-­‐intervened matched group from a diferente region. The research time frame was 12 month before and after intervention. The analysis of the prescription trends used the Defined Daily Dose (DDD) and Defined Daily Dose per 1000 patients per day (DHD) methodology. The statistical methods consisted of segmented regression analysis. Results: There was a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern of intervened GPs after intervention (p=0.005). There was also a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern for the non-­‐intervened group from the same region (p=0.037) and for the non-­‐ intervened group from a diferente region (p=0.010). Concerningthe analysis by gender, female gender prescribed a higher amount of benzodiazepines. The intervened female gender prescribers presented the highest decrease in prescription trend after intervention (p=0.008). Discussion: The data demonstrated that the intervention was effective in reducing benzodiazepine prescription after intervention. The general decrease in prescription trend might be explained by a Hawthorne effect or a contamination effect between the three groups of GPs. The available data couldn´t explain the diferences in prescription patterns by gender. Conclusion: This study demonstrates how a single intervention has a positive impact on improving prescription trends. The replication of this intervention might be an opportunity to changing the worrying benzodiazepine utilisation in Portugal.