Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Transitional dynamics of an endogenous growth model with an erosion effect

The convergence features of an Endogenous Growth model with Physical capital, Human Capital and R&D have been studied. We add an erosion effect (supported by empirical evidence) to this model, and fully characterize its convergence properties. The dynamics is described by a fourth-order system of differential equations. We show that the model converges along a one-dimensional stable manifold and that its equilibrium is saddle-path stable. We also argue that one of the implications of considering this “erosion effect” is the increase in the adherence of the model to data.

What hides behind the fixed-term contracts wage gap?

In Portugal, about 20% of full-time workers are employed under a fixed-term contract. Using a rich longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal, with more than 20 million observations and covering the 2002-2012 period, we confirm the common idea that fixed-term contracts are not desirable when compared to permanent ones, by estimating a conditional wage gap of -1.7 log points. Then, we evaluate the sources of that wage penalty by combining a three way high-dimensional fixed effects model with the decomposition of Gelbach (2014), in which the three dimensions considered are the worker’s unobserved ability, the firm’s compensation wage policy and the job title effect. It is shown that the average worker with a fixed-term contract is less productive than his/her permanent counterparts, explaining -3.92 log points of the FTC wage penalty. Additionally, the sorting of workers into lower-paid job titles is also responsible for -0.59 log points of the wage gap. Surprisingly, we found that the allocation of workers among firms mitigates the existing wage penalty (in 4.23 log points), as fixed-term workers are concentrated into firms with a more generous compensation policy. Finally, following Figueiredo et al. (2014), we further control for the worker-firm match characteristics and reach the conclusion that fixed-term employment relationships have an overrepresentation of low quality worker-firm matches, explaining 0.65 log points of the FTC wage penalty.

Under the veil of citations

Academics are often ranked on citation counts’, which is considered an adequate proxy for author's quality and reputation. This paper seeks to find what is behind a cited academic / a cited article. We constructed a rich dataset from Portuguese affiliated economists and use zero inflated negative binomial model. This procedure is appropriate for count outcomes, correcting for overdispersion and excess zeros. We also use a fixed effect poisson model to accomodate authors' unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze results in detail comparing with existing literature and making some theoretical considerations around.

Compensating variation and the young Portuguese emigrants: A study on how to keep our own

Emigration has been a very present word in Portugal. Due to the effects of the Economic Crisis and the Memorandum of Understanding policies, we have witnessed a significant yearly migration outflow of people searching for better conditions. This study aims to measure the factors affecting this flow as well as how much the probability of emigrating has evolved during the years bridging 2006 to 2012. I shall consider the decision of emigrating as Discrete Choice Random Utility maximization use a conditional Logit framework to model the probability choice for 31 OECD countries of destination. Moreover I will ascertain the compensating variation required such that the probability of choice in 2012 is adjusted back to 2007 values, keeping all other variables constant. I replicate this exercise using the unemployment rate instead of income. The most likely country of destination is Luxembourg throughout the years analyzed and the values obtained for the CV is of circa 1.700€ in terms of Income per capita and -11% in terms of the unemployment rate adjustment.

Fixed-mobile integration

Often, fixed-line incumbents also own the largest mobile network. We consider the effect of this joint ownership on market outcomes. Our model predicts that while fixed-to-mobile call prices to the integrated mobile network are more efficient than under separation, those to rival mobile networks are distorted upwards, amplifying any incumbency advantage. As concerns potential remedies, a uniform off-net pricing constraint leads to higher welfare than functional separation and even allows to maintain some of the efficiency gains.

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

Natural antioxidants extraction and their incorporation into model pharmaceutical systems

Dissertation to obtain a Master Degree in Biotechnology

The effect of water inorganic matrix in ibuprofen adsorption onto activated carbon for water and wastewater treatment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Ligand K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy and DFT calculations on [Fe3S4]0,+ clusters: delocalization, redox, and effect of the protein environment

Ligand K-edge XAS of an [Fe3S4]0 model complex is reported. The pre-edge can be resolved into contributions from the í2Ssulfide, í3Ssulfide, and Sthiolate ligands. The average ligand-metal bond covalencies obtained from these pre-edges are further distributed between Fe3+ and Fe2.5+ components using DFT calculations. The bridging ligand covalency in the [Fe2S2]+ subsite of the [Fe3S4]0 cluster is found to be significantly lower than its value in a reduced [Fe2S2] cluster (38% vs 61%, respectively). This lowered bridging ligand covalency reduces the superexchange coupling parameter J relative to its value in a reduced [Fe2S2]+ site (-146 cm-1 vs -360 cm-1, respectively). This decrease in J, along with estimates of the double exchange parameter B and vibronic coupling parameter ì2/k-, leads to an S ) 2 delocalized ground state in the [Fe3S4]0 cluster. The S K-edge XAS of the protein ferredoxin II (Fd II) from the D. gigas active site shows a decrease in covalency compared to the model complex, in the same oxidation state, which correlates with the number of H-bonding interactions to specific sulfur ligands present in the active site. The changes in ligand-metal bond covalencies upon redox compared with DFT calculations indicate that the redox reaction involves a two-electron change (one-electron ionization plus a spin change of a second electron) with significant electronic relaxation. The presence of the redox inactive Fe3+ center is found to decrease the barrier of the redox process in the [Fe3S4] cluster due to its strong antiferromagnetic coupling with the redox active Fe2S2 subsite.

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Parametric portfolio policies: An application for a global tactical asset allocation model

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics