Information technology service management: an experimental approach towards IT service prediction

Dissertation presented to obtain a Masters degree in Computer Science

Fractional discrete-time signal processing: scale conversion and linear prediction

Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 29

New results on fractional linear prediction

Proceedings of the European Control Conference, ECC’01, Porto, Portugal, September 2001

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Hybrid link-state path-vector protocol ++

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Oil, foreign aid and FDI flows: The missing link?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The link between remittances and and education in Cape Verde

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

High or low initial setting price?: Initial setting price as prediction of intention to bid in on line auctions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Correction of the anisotropy in resistivity: application to pore pressure prediction

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Numerical prediction of diffusion and electric field-induced iron nanoparticle transport

Zero valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) are considered very promising for the remediation of contaminated soils and groundwaters. However, an important issue related to their limited mobility remains unsolved. Direct current can be used to enhance the nanoparticles transport, based on the same principles of electrokinetic remediation. In this work, a generalized physicochemical model was developed and solved numerically to describe the nZVI transport through porous media under electric field, and with different electrolytes (with different ionic strengths). The model consists of the Nernst–Planck coupled system of equations, which accounts for the mass balance of ionic species in a fluid medium, when both the diffusion and electromigration of the ions are considered. The diffusion and electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nZVI particles were also considered in the system. The contribution of electroosmotic flow to the overall mass transport was included in the model for all cases. The nZVI effective mobility values in the porous medium are very low (10−7–10−4 cm2 V−1 s−1), due to the counterbalance between the positive electroosmotic flow and the electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nanoparticles. The higher the nZVI concentration is in the matrix, the higher the aggregation; therefore, low concentration of nZVI suspensions must be used for successful field application.

Development of 3D in vitro models for prediction of hepatic metabolism and toxicity

The development of human cell models that recapitulate hepatic functionality allows the study of metabolic pathways involved in toxicity and disease. The increased biological relevance, cost-effectiveness and high-throughput of cell models can contribute to increase the efficiency of drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. Recapitulation of liver functionality in vitro requires the development of advanced culture strategies to mimic in vivo complexity, such as 3D culture, co-cultures or biomaterials. However, complex 3D models are typically associated with poor robustness, limited scalability and compatibility with screening methods. In this work, several strategies were used to develop highly functional and reproducible spheroid-based in vitro models of human hepatocytes and HepaRG cells using stirred culture systems. In chapter 2, the isolation of human hepatocytes from resected liver tissue was implemented and a liver tissue perfusion method was optimized towards the improvement of hepatocyte isolation and aggregation efficiency, resulting in an isolation protocol compatible with 3D culture. In chapter 3, human hepatocytes were co-cultivated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) and the phenotype of both cell types was characterized, showing that MSC acquire a supportive stromal function and hepatocytes retain differentiated hepatic functions, stability of drug metabolism enzymes and higher viability in co-cultures. In chapter 4, a 3D alginate microencapsulation strategy for the differentiation of HepaRG cells was evaluated and compared with the standard 2D DMSO-dependent differentiation, yielding higher differentiation efficiency, comparable levels of drug metabolism activity and significantly improved biosynthetic activity. The work developed in this thesis provides novel strategies for 3D culture of human hepatic cell models, which are reproducible, scalable and compatible with screening platforms. The phenotypic and functional characterization of the in vitro systems performed contributes to the state of the art of human hepatic cell models and can be applied to the improvement of pre-clinical drug development efficiency of the process, model disease and ultimately, development of cell-based therapeutic strategies for liver failure.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Primary cilia and the regulation of hedgehog signaling: link to cardiac development

RESUMO: As células eucarióticas evoluíram um sistema de sinalização complexo que lhes permite responder aos sinais extracelulares e intracelulares. Desta forma, as vias de sinalização são essenciais para a sobrevivência da célula e do organismo, uma vez que regulam processos fundamentais, tais como o desenvolvimento, o crescimento, a imunidade, e a homeostase dos tecidos. A via de transdução de sinal Hedgehog (Hh) envolve o receptor Patched1 (Ptch1), que tem um efeito inibidor sobre a proteína Smoothened (Smo) na ausência dos seus ligandos, as proteínas Sonic hedgehog (Shh). Estas proteínas são reguladores fundamentais do desenvolvimento embrionário, como ilustrado pelas malformações drásticas observadas em embriões humanos e de murganho com perturbações da transdução de sinal da via Hh e que incluem polidactilia, defeitos craniofaciais e malformações ósseas. Igualmente importantes são as consequências da ativação inapropriada da via de sinalização Hh na formação de tumores. Curiosamente, os componentes desta via localizam-se nos cílios primários. Além disso, demonstrou-se que esta localização é crucial para a sinalização através da via Hh. Na presença dos ligandos, Ptch1 é internalizado e destinado a degradação ou sequestrado num compartimento da célula de onde não pode desempenhar o seu papel inibitório. A proteína Arl13b é uma pequena GTPase pertencente à família Arf/Arl da superfamília Ras de pequenas GTPases e foi implicada no síndrome de Joubert, uma ciliopatia caracterizada por ataxia congénita cerebelar, hipotonia, atrso mental e cardiopatia congénita. Murganhos deficientes para Arl13b, chamado hennin (hnn) morrem morrem prematuramente ao dia 13,5 de gestação (E13,5) e exibem anomalias morfológicas nos cílios que levam à interrupção da sinalização Hh. Além disso, a Arl13b está diretamente envolvida na regulação da via Hh, controlando a localização de vários componentes desta via nos cílios primários. Neste trabalho, mostramos que a Arl13b se localiza em circular dorsal ruffles (CDRs), que são estruturas de actina envolvidas em macropinocitose e internalização de recetores, e que regula a sua formação. Além disso, aprofundámos o conhecimento do processo de ativação da via de sinalização Hh, mostrando que as CDRs sequestram seletivamente e internalizam o recetor Ptch1. As CDRs formam-se minutos após ativação da via por ligandos Shh ou pelo agonista de Smo SAG e continuam a ser formadas a partir daí, sugerindo uma indução contínua da reorganização do citoesqueleto de actina quando a via está ativada. Observámos ainda que a inibição da formação de CDRs através do silenciamento de WAVE1, uma proteína necessária para a formação destas estruturas, resulta na diminuição da ativação da via de sinalização Hh. Além disso, o bloqueio da macropinocitose, que se segue ao fecho das CDRs, através do silenciamento de uma proteína necessária para a cisão de macropinossomas, nomeadamente a proteína BARS, tem um efeito semelhante. Estes resultados sugerem que as CDRs e a macropinocitose são necessárias para a ativação da via de sinalização Hh e indicam que esta via de internalização controla os níveis de sinal Hh. Durante o desenvolvimento, as células proliferativas dependem do cílio primário para a transdução de várias vias de sinalização. A via Hh induz a diferenciação do músculo cardíaco. Por conseguinte, os murganhos deficientes na via de sinalização Hh exibem uma variedade de defeitos de lateralidade, incluindo alteração do looping do coração, como pode ser visto em murganhos deficientes para Arl13b. Por conseguinte, investigámos o papel da Arl13b no desenvolvimento do coração. Mostramos que a Arl13b é altamente expressa no coração de embriões de murganho e de murganhos adultos ao nível do mRNA e da proteína. Além disso, o perfil de distribuição da Arl13b no coração segue o dos cílios primários, que são essenciais para o desenvolvimento cardíaco. Corações de murganhos hnn no estadio E12,5 mostram um canal átrio-ventricular aberto, espessamento da camada compacta ventricular e aumento do índice mitótico no ventrículo esquerdo. Além disso, um atraso de 1 a 2 dias no desenvolvimento é observado em corações de murganhos hnn, quando comparados com controlos selvagens no estadio E13,5. Assim, estes resultados sugerem que a Arl13b é necessária para o desenvolvimento embrionário do coração e que defeitos cardíacos podem contribuir para a letalidade embrionária de murganhos hnn. Em suma, foi estabelecido um novo mecanismo para a regulação dos níveis de superfície do recetor Ptch1, que envolve a remodelação do citoesqueleto de actina e a formação de CDRs após a ativação da via de sinalização Hh. Este mecanismo permite um feedback negativo que evita a repressão excessiva da via através da remoção de Ptch1 da superfície da célula. Além disso, determinou-se que uma mutação de perda de função na Arl13b causa defeitos cardíacos durante o desenvolvimento, possivelmente relacionados com a associação dos defeitos em cílios primários e na sinalização Hh, existentes em murganhos deficientes para Arl13b. A via de sinalização Hh tem tido um papel central entre as vias de sinalização, uma vez que a sua regulação é crucial para o funcionamento apropriada da célula. Assim, a descoberta de um novo mecanismo de tráfego através de macropinocitose e CDRs que controla a ativação e repressão da via de sinalização Hh traz novas perspetivas de como esta via pode ser regulada e pode ainda conduzir à identificação de novos alvos e estratégias terapêuticas. --------------------ABSTRACT: Eukaryotic cells have evolved a complex signaling system that allows them to respond to extracellular and intracellular cues. Signaling pathways are essential for cell and organism survival, since they regulate fundamental processes such as development, growth, immunity, and tissue homeostasis. The Hedgehog (Hh) pathway of signal transduction involves the receptor Patched1 (Ptch1), which has an inhibitory effect on Smoothened (Smo) in the absence of its ligands, the Sonic hedgehog (Shh) proteins. These proteins are fundamental regulators of embryonic development, as illustrated by the dramatic malformations seen in human and mouse embryos with perturbed Hh signal transduction that include polydactyly, craniofacial defects and skeletal malformations. Equally important are the consequences of inappropriate activation of the Hh signaling response in tumor formation. Interestingly, the components of this pathway localize to primary cilia. Moreover, it has been shown that this localization is crucial for Hh signaling. However, in the presence of the ligands, Ptch1 is internalized and destined for degradation or sequestered in a cell compartment where it no longer can play its inhibitory role. ADP-ribosylation factor-like (Arl) 13b, a small GTPase belonging to Arf/Arl family of the Ras superfamily of small GTPases has been implicated in Joubert syndrome, a ciliopathy characterized by congenital cerebellar ataxia, hypotonia, intellectual disability and congenital heart disease. Arl13b-deficient mice, called hennin (hnn) die at embryonic day 13.5 (E13.5) and display morphological abnormalities in primary cilia that lead to the disruption of Hh signaling. Furthermore, Arl13b is directly involved in the regulation of Hh signaling by controlling the localization of several components of this pathway to primary cilia. Here, we show that Arl13b localizes to and regulates the formation of circular dorsal rufles (CDRs), which are actin-basedstructures known to be involved in macropinocytosis and receptor internalization. Additionally, we extended the knowledge of the Hh signaling activation process by showing that CDRs selectively sequester and internalize Ptch1 receptors. CDRs are formed minutes after Hh activation by Shh ligands or the Smo agonist SAG and keep being formed thereafter, suggesting a continuous induction of actin reorganization when the pathway is switched on. Importantly, we observed that disruption of CDRs by silencing WAVE1, a protein required for CDR formation, results in down-regulation of Hh signaling activation. Moreover, the blockade of macropinocytosis, which follows CDR closure, through silencing of a protein necessary for the fission of macropinosomes, namely BARS has a similar effect. These results suggest that CDRs and macropinocytosis are necessary for activation of Hh signaling and indicate that this pathway of internalization controls Hh signal levels. During development, proliferating cells rely on the primary cilium for the transduction of several signaling pathways. Hh induces the differentiation of cardiac muscle. Accordingly, Hh-deficient mice display a variety of laterality defects, including alteration of heart looping, as seen in Arl13b-deficient mice. Therefore, we investigated the role of Arl13b in heart development. We show that Arl13b is highly expressed in the heart of both embryonic and adult mice at mRNA and protein levels. Also, Arl13b localization profile mimics that of primary cilia, which have been shown to be essential to early heart development. E12.5 hnn hearts show an open atrioventricular channel, increased thickening of the ventricular compact layer and increased mitotic index in the left ventricle. Moreover, a delay of 1 to 2 days in development is observed in hnn hearts, when compared to wild-type controls at E13.5. Hence, these results suggest that Arl13b is necessary for embryonic heart development and that cardiac defects might contribute to the embryonic lethality of hnn mice. Altogether, we established a novel mechanism for the regulation of Ptch1 surface levels, involving cytoskeleton remodeling and CDR formation upon Hh signaling activation. This mechanism allows a negative feedback loop that prevents excessive repression of the pathway by removing Ptch1 from the cell surface. Additionally, we determined that the Arl13b loss-offunction mutation causes cardiac defects during development, possibly related to the associated ciliary and Hh signaling defects found in Arl13b-deficient mice. Hh signaling has taken a center stage among the signaling pathways since its regulation is crucial for the appropriate output and function of the cell. Hence, the finding of a novel trafficking mechanism through CDRs and macropinocytosis that controls Hh signaling activation and repression brings new insights to how this pathway can be regulated and can lead to the discovery of novel therapeutic targets and strategies.