Predicting GDP growth in the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Scaling In-Memory databases on multicores

Current computer systems have evolved from featuring only a single processing unit and limited RAM, in the order of kilobytes or few megabytes, to include several multicore processors, o↵ering in the order of several tens of concurrent execution contexts, and have main memory in the order of several tens to hundreds of gigabytes. This allows to keep all data of many applications in the main memory, leading to the development of inmemory databases. Compared to disk-backed databases, in-memory databases (IMDBs) are expected to provide better performance by incurring in less I/O overhead. In this dissertation, we present a scalability study of two general purpose IMDBs on multicore systems. The results show that current general purpose IMDBs do not scale on multicores, due to contention among threads running concurrent transactions. In this work, we explore di↵erent direction to overcome the scalability issues of IMDBs in multicores, while enforcing strong isolation semantics. First, we present a solution that requires no modification to either database systems or to the applications, called MacroDB. MacroDB replicates the database among several engines, using a master-slave replication scheme, where update transactions execute on the master, while read-only transactions execute on slaves. This reduces contention, allowing MacroDB to o↵er scalable performance under read-only workloads, while updateintensive workloads su↵er from performance loss, when compared to the standalone engine. Second, we delve into the database engine and identify the concurrency control mechanism used by the storage sub-component as a scalability bottleneck. We then propose a new locking scheme that allows the removal of such mechanisms from the storage sub-component. This modification o↵ers performance improvement under all workloads, when compared to the standalone engine, while scalability is limited to read-only workloads. Next we addressed the scalability limitations for update-intensive workloads, and propose the reduction of locking granularity from the table level to the attribute level. This further improved performance for intensive and moderate update workloads, at a slight cost for read-only workloads. Scalability is limited to intensive-read and read-only workloads. Finally, we investigate the impact applications have on the performance of database systems, by studying how operation order inside transactions influences the database performance. We then propose a Read before Write (RbW) interaction pattern, under which transaction perform all read operations before executing write operations. The RbW pattern allowed TPC-C to achieve scalable performance on our modified engine for all workloads. Additionally, the RbW pattern allowed our modified engine to achieve scalable performance on multicores, almost up to the total number of cores, while enforcing strong isolation.

Practices and trends of telework in the Portuguese industry: the results of surveys in the textile, metal and software sectors

The aim of the TeleRisk Project on labour relations and professional risks within the context of teleworking in Portugal – supported by IDICT – Institute for Development and Inspection of Working Conditions (Ministry of Labour), is to study the practices and forms of teleworking in the manufacturing sectors in Portugal. The project chose also the software industry as a reference sector, even though it does not intend to exclude from the study any other sector of activity or the so-called “hybrid” forms of work. However, the latter must have some of the characteristics of telework. The project thus takes into account the so-called “traditional” sectors of activity, namely textile and machinery and metal engineering (machinery and equipment), not usually associated to this type of work. However, telework could include, in the so-called “traditional” sectors, other variations that are not found in technologically based sectors. One of the evaluation methods for the dynamics associated to telework consisted in carrying out surveys by means of questionnaires, aimed at employers in the sectors analysed. This paper presents some of the results of those surveys. It is important to mention that, being a preliminary analysis, it means that it does not pretend to have exhausted all the issues in the survey, but has meant that it shows the bigger tendencies, in terms of teleworking practices, of the Portuguese industry.

Economies of scale and scope in the provision of diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in Portuguese hospitals

This paper analyses the provision of auxiliary clinical services that are typically carried out within the hospital. We estimate a exible cost function for the three most important (cost- wise) diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in Portuguese hospitals: Clinical Pathology, Medical Imaging and Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Our objective in carrying out this estimation is the evaluation of economies of scale and scope in the provision of these services. For all services, we nd evidence of ray economies of scale and some evidence of economies of scope. These results have important policy implications and can be related to the ongoing discussion of where and how should hospitals provide these services.

Cooperative memory and database transactions

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal

The relative attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements in or out of them. Understanding the appealing features of a city is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes of cities can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant in explaining migration. However, a pull–push approach has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire survey of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Régua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results support previous findings that the economic activity of a city is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, other characteristics specific to each city, especially those related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city’s attractiveness as a place to live. The cause of population shrinkage is also found to influence residents’ assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants’ intention to continue living in their city of residence.

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Planear e inovar : contributo para o planeamento de recursos com base nas necessidades auto-avaliadas pela população com 65 e mais anos

RESUMO - Enquadramento: O envelhecimento da população ocorre em todas as sociedades desenvolvidas, resultando num aumento da prevalência da dependência funcional, associado recorrentemente à presença de doenças crónicas. Estes novos padrões demográficos, epidemiológicos, implicando populações vulneráveis com necessidades específicas, resultam em desafios incontestáveis. Como resposta a este novo paradigma, em 2006, Portugal implementa a Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados (RNCCI). Finalidade/objectivos: Caracterização da população com base no perfil das necessidades auto-referidas pelas pessoas com ≥65 anos, com algum nível de independência/dependência nas actividades de vida diária e/ou com pelo menos uma doença crónica. Pretende-se, ainda, desenvolver uma metodologia que permita simular cenários que contribuam para o planeamento do número de camas para internamento de carácter permanente em Unidades de Longa Duração e Manutenção (ULDM) da RNCCI. Metodologia: Construção de dois indicadores: índice de independência/dependência e existência ou não de doenças crónicas. Análise estatística e caracterização, individual e conjunta, das variáveis sociodemográficas, socioeconómicas, auto-avaliação do estado de saúde, nível de independência/dependência e/ou existência de pelo menos uma doença crónica. Simulação de cenários com base nas metas definidas pela RNCCI para 2013. Resultados e Conclusões: Da aplicação do índice de independência/dependência, resulta que 78,8% são independentes na realização das actividades de vida diária e 21,2% apresentam algum nível de dependência. À excepção do Centro, todas as regiões apresentam padrões similares. Globalmente, os resultados obtidos vão de encontro aos enunciados na literatura internacional, realçando-se apenas alguns mais pertinentes: Observa-se uma predominância de mulheres idosas. Destaca-se também uma relação directa entre a idade e os níveis de dependência. As variáveis socioeconómicas indicam que a existência de algum nível de dependência tende a ser mais frequente entre os que têm menor escolaridade e rendimento. Em média o estado de saúde é auto-avaliado como mau, piorando com o aumento da idade e níveis de dependência mais acentuados e melhorando com o aumento da escolaridade. Da simulação de cenários destaca-se que, face às 4 camas previstas nas metas de 2013, seria de alocar em média 1,7 camas ou 1 cama ao internamento permanente em ULDM. Trabalhar em rede implica canais de comunicação. A incorporação da distribuição espacial das necessidades e serviços com recurso aos sistemas de informação geográfica torna-se numa mais-valia. Possibilita avaliar hipóteses, análises sustentadas e disseminação de informação e resultados, contribuindo para um planeamento, monitorização e avaliação mais eficaz e eficiente das actividades do sector da saúde. ---------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Background: Population aging occurs in all developed societies resulting in an increased prevalence of functional dependence, frequently associated with the presence of chronic diseases. These new demographic and epidemiological patterns, which include dependency ad vulnerability situations, with specific needs, result in undeniable challenges. In response to this new paradigm, in 2006, Portugal implements the National Network for Integrated Care (RNCCI). Aim/Objectives: Characterize the population based on the self-reported needs of ≥65 year’s people, with some level of independence/dependency in activities of daily living and/or with at least one chronic disease. Also intends to develop a methodological approach that allows scenarios simulation which contributes to the planning of the number of permanent inpatient beds in Long Term Care Units (ULDM) of RNCCI. Methods: Construction of two indicators: independence/dependence index and existence of chronic diseases. Statistical analysis and characterization, individually and jointly, of sociodemographics, socioeconomics, selfassessment of health status, level of independence/dependence and/or existence of at least one chronic disease variables. Scenarios simulation based on RNCCI targets set for 2013. Results and Conclusions: According with independence/dependence index, 78.8% are independent in carrying out the activities of daily living and 21.2% have some level of dependency. With the exception of the Centroregion, all regions have similar patterns. Generally, the results are concordant with international literature, highlighting here only some of the most relevant results: A predominance of older women is observed. A direct relationship between age and levels of dependence is emphasized. Socio-economic variables indicate that the existence of some level of dependency tends to be more frequent among those with lower income and education levels. On average, health status is self-assessed as poor, being even more critical with aging and higher dependency level. On the other hand, high education levels are related with better health status. Scenarios simulations highlights that, based on 4 beds considered in the 2013 planned goals, an average of 1.7 or 1 beds in ULDM should be allocated to permanent inpatient beds. Networking involves communication channels. The incorporation of spatial distribution of needs and services using geographical information systems becomes an added value. It enables hypothesis, evaluation, sustainable analysis and information and results dissemination, contributing to a more effective and efficient planning, monitoring and assessment of the health sector activities.

Factores que influenciam a actividade física na vida diária dos doentes com doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica

RESUMO: A monitorização da actividade física diária nos doentes com Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crónica (DPOC) tem sido alvo de grande interesse nos últimos tempos. No entanto, ainda nenhum estudo reuniu o conjunto de factores – grau de obstrução, hiperinsuflação pulmonar, alteração das trocas gasosas, dispneia, dessaturação de oxigénio, capacidade de exercício, ansiedade e depressão – que podem afectar a sua realização, nem os correlacionou com os dados obtidos com o pedómetro e que reflectem o que cada doente realmente faz no seu dia-adia. O presente estudo teve como objectivo principal identificar os factores que influenciam a actividade física na vida diária dos doentes com DPOC. Estudaram-se 55 doentes do sexo masculino com idade média de 67 anos e um FEV1 médio de 50,8% do previsto, com DPOC moderada a muito grave (estadios II a IV), de entre os utentes do Laboratório de Fisiopatologia Respiratória do Centro Hospitalar de Torres Vedras. Avaliaram-se os parâmetros da escala de dispneia modificada do Medical Research Council (MMRC), escala London Chest Activity of Daily Living (LCADL), escala de Ansiedade e Depressão Hospitalar (HADS), índice BODE, estudo funcional respiratório em repouso, teste de marcha de seis minutos e o número de passos por dia utilizando um pedómetro por um período de três dias. Observou-se que os doentes deram em média 4972 passos por dia e apresentaram uma cotação total média de 17,7 na LCADL, tendo existido diferenças estatisticamente significativas em função da gravidade da doença, sendo que os doentes mais graves são os que em média andam menos no seu dia-a-dia e apresentam maior limitação na realização das actividades de vida diária. O número de passos por dia apresentou correlações significativas com as variáveis idade, dispneia, depressão, hiperinsuflação monar, gravidade de obstrução (FEV1), trocas gasosas (DLCO), saturação arterial de oxigénio mínima e correlação mais forte com a distância percorrida no TM6m. Este estudo permitiu identificar que os factores determinantes da actividade física na vida diária de doentes com DPOC nos estadios II a IV, foram a dispneia e a distância percorrida no TM6m. Além disso, estes doentes constituem um grupo sedentário, particularmente a partir do estadio III, com níveis de actividade física diária baixos.-----------ABSTRACT There has been an increased interest in monitoring the daily physical activity in patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). However, no specific study has been realized so far that has put the different factors which can affect the results obtained altogether, (such as the degree of obstruction, pulmonary hyperinflation, abnormal gas exchange, dyspnea, oxygen desaturation, exercise capacity, anxiety and depression) or correlated with data obtained from the pedometer, which reflect each patient actual activity in their daily life. This study aimed to identify the main factors that influence physical activity in daily life of patients with COPD. The scope of this study was 55 male patients with an average age of 67 years old and an average FEV1 of 50.8% predicted, with moderate to severe COPD (stages II to IV), among patients from the Respiratory Pathophysiology Laboratory of the Centro Hospitalar de Torres Vedras. Were evaluated the parameters of the modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale (MMRC), London Chest Activity of Daily Living scale (LCADL), Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS), BODE index, pulmonary function test at rest, six minute walk test (6MWT) and the number of steps per day using a pedometer for a period of three days. It was observed that patients have walked an average of 4972 steps per day and had a total score of 17.7 at LCADL, and statistically significant differences were stated depending on the severity of the disease. Whereas patients with a more severe degree of the disease have walked least in their daily life and show greater restraint in carrying out activities of daily living. The number of steps per day showed significant correlations with age, dyspnea, depression, lung hyperinflation, severity of obstruction (FEV1), gas exchange (DLCO), minimum arterial oxygen saturation and stronger correlation with distance walked on 6MWT. This study shows that the crucial factors of physical activity in daily life of COPD patients at stages II to IV were dyspnea and distance on 6MWT. Moreover, these patients constitute a sedentary group, particularly from the stage III, with lower levels of daily physical activity.

Ambivalent Islam: the identity construction of Muslims under Portuguese colonial rule

This article wishes to contribute to the study of the historical processes that have been spotting Muslim populations as favourite targets for political analysis and governance. Focusing on the Portuguese archives, civil as well as military, the article tries to uncover the most conspicuous identity representations (mainly negative or ambivalent) that members of Portuguese colonial apparatus built around Muslim communities living in African colonies, particularly in Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique. The paper shows how these culturally and politically constructed images were related to the more general strategies by which Portuguese imagined their own national identity, both as ‘European’ and as ‘coloniser’ or ‘imperial people’. The basic assumption of this article is that policies enforced in a context of inter-ethnic and religious competition are better understood when linked to the identity strategies inherent to them. These are conceived as strategic constructions aimed at the preservation, the protection and the imaginary expansion of the subject, who looks for groups to be included in and out-groups to reject, exclude, aggress or eliminate. We think that most of the inter-ethnic relationships and conflicts, as well as the very experience of ethnicity, are born from this identity matrix.

Ambivalent Islam: the identity construction of Muslims under Portuguese colonial rule

This article wishes to contribute to the study of the historical processes that have been spotting Muslim populations as favourite targets for political analysis and governance. Focusing on the Portuguese archives, civil as well as military, the article tries to uncover the most conspicuous identity representations (mainly negative or ambivalent) that members of Portuguese colonial apparatus built around Muslim communities living in African colonies, particularly in Guinea- Bissau and Mozambique. The paper shows how these culturally and politically constructed images were related to the more general strategies by which Portuguese imagined their own national identity, both as ‘European’ and as ‘coloniser’ or ‘imperial people’. The basic assumption of this article is that policies enforced in a context of interethnic and religious competition are better understood when linked to the identity strategies inherent to them. These are conceived as strategic constructions aimed at the preservation, protection and imaginary expansion of the subject, who looks for groups to be included in and out-groups to reject, exclude, aggress or eliminate. The author argues that most of the inter-ethnic relationships and conflicts, as well as the very experience of ethnicity, are born from this identity matrix.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Os enfermeiros e as dimensões motivacionais : estudo não experimental, descritivo, analítico e transversal, baseado na técnica de inquérito

RESUMO - A profissão de enfermagem é definida por Virgínia Henderson (1966), como tendo por objeto "ajudar o indivíduo, saudável ou doente, na execução das atividades que contribuem para conservar a sua saúde ou a sua recuperação, de tal maneira, devendo desempenhar esta função no sentido de tornar o indivíduo o mais independente possível, ou seja, a alcançar a sua anterior independência". A atenção à saúde ao longo da história da humanidade vem sendo desenvolvida de muitos modos e por diversos atores sociais. O trabalho em saúde é essencial para a vida humana e envolve atividades realizadas por profissionais e equipas multidisciplinares que dominam os conhecimentos e técnicas essenciais para assistir o indivíduo com problemas de saúde ou em risco de adoecer, em atividades de investigação, de prevenção, curativo e de reabilitação. À Enfermagem tal como a outras profissões, são cada vez mais exigidos requisitos de eficiência, eficácia e polivalência na sua atividade, tendo a motivação um papel fundamental na atitude, postura e desempenho do profissional. Este trabalho descreve o estudo da motivação profissional, numa população de enfermeiros portugueses numa instituição privada. A versão adaptada de um inquérito como instrumento de autopreenchimento representa vários construtos implicados no processo motivacional, em contexto profissional. Pretendo com este estudo identificar a dimensão da motivação mais relevantes no processo motivacional dos enfermeiros, assim como as suas variações face a variáveis de características pessoais, profissionais e institucionais. A partir dos resultados obtidos pretendo ainda apresentar sugestões de maneira a oferecer oportunidade de transformação do seu ambiente organizacional em instituições similares.

Ranking schools: a step toward increased accountability or a mere discriminatory practice?

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the discussion of the effects of published school rankings based on average scores obtained by students on national exams. We study the effectiveness of this (low-stakes) accountability mechanism; we analyze whether students react to these rankings, by moving in or out of high-schools according to their scores and examine the movements of closing of schools. Our results suggest that families react strongly to published rankings. We also look at the changes in the socio-economic background of students of poorly performing schools in order to evaluate whether the publication of rankings has increased inequality, as feared by many observers. According to our results, published rankings do in fact reinforce stratification by income.