Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Bivalve taxonomic diversity throughout the Italian Pliocene as a tool for climatic-oceanographic and stratigraphic inferences

The state of research on the evolution of marine bivalve taxonomic diversity of the Mediterranean Pliocene is analysed. The following assertions are discussed: 1) The Early Pliocene malacofauna is characterized by a high number of warm-water taxa and a high taxonomic diversity with respect to that of the present time. 2) The first appreciable extinction event in the Mediterranean Pliocene approximates or just follows the FO of Globorotalia bononiensis. 3) The second appreciable extinction event is between the LAD of Discoaster tamalis and the LAD of Discoaster surculus . 4) A third minor extinction event is penecontemporaneous with the FO of Globorotalia inflaia. Taking into account the available data on the Pliocene extinction events it has been possible to distinguish 4 different molluscan units with different climatic-oceanographic significance.

Bivalve taxonomic diversity throughout the Italian Pliocene as a tool for climatic-oceanographic and stratigraphic inferences

The state of research on the evolution of marine bivalve taxonomic diversity of the Mediterranean Pliocene is analysed. The following assertions are discussed: 1) The Early Pliocene malacofauna is characterized by a high number of warm-water taxa and a high taxonomic diversity with respect to that of the present time. 2) The first appreciable extinction event in the Mediterranean Pliocene approximates or just follows the FO of Globorotalia bononiensis. 3) The second appreciable extinction event is between the LAD of Discoaster tamalis and the LAD of Discoaster surculus. 4) A third minor extinction event is penecontemporaneous with the FO of Globorotalia inflata. Taking into account the available data on the Pliocene extinction events it has been possible to distinguish 4 different molluscan units with different climatic-oceanographic significance.

Italian interlocking directorates: structure, evolution and cross-country comparisons

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Humor impresso: cultura e política em O Espreitador do Mundo Novo

The aim of this paper is to identify, analyse and question the expressions of humour in O Espreitador do Mundo Novo, a monthly periodical published by José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa throughout 1802. It is a chapter of a PhD thesis in History and Theory of Ideas with the title “Correcting by laughter. Humour in Portuguese periodical press 1797-1834”. Positing humour as a social and cultural phenomenon, it is regarded here in a broad sense, comprehending wit, joke, ridicule, satire, jest, mockery, facetiousness or irony, displayed with recourse to various figures of speech. This interdisciplinary work intends listing and researching the themes and issues of the periodical and its targets, namely the social, age or gender stereotypes and to acknowledge its political stances. Another main purpose of this paper is to assess the role of humour as expressed in the printed periodical as a political and social weapon, criticizing ways (and which ways) and/or fashions, often ridiculing novelty just for being new in order to maintain the statu quo, and to establish in which senses humour was used in the context of late Ancien Régime and early liberalism culture. The humour of O Espreitador has also played a part in framing a public sphere in early nineteenth-century Portugal, as can be seen by the different “stages” and backgrounds where the monthly installments of the periodical take place: squares, coffee houses, fairgrounds, private houses, jailhouses, churches, public promenades, pilgrimages, bullfights, parties, the opera house – each of them a space of sociability and socialization. In this one, as in other periodicals of the time, printed humour stands at the crossroads of politics and culture, in spaces boldly widening before the reader. Albeit, there are quite a few loud silences in O Espreitador: not even the slightest remark to the church, the clergy or the Inquisition, only reverential references to the established order and the powers that be. The periodical criticizes the criticizers; it is against those who are against. The repeated disclaimers are intended not only to protect the author from libel suits or other litigation. They belong to a centuries-old tradition which, as early as the Middle Ages, has set apart escárnio (scorn) from maldizer (slander): José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa distinguishes satire from rebuking vice – a “cheerful criticism” forerunner of the ironic humour which was to become a trademark of Portuguese literature in the second half of the nineteenth century. Targeting those who deviate from the social norm (for example social climbers and older women who marry young men) or the followers of fashion (sometimes specifically “French fashion”), O Espreitador charges at liberal and progressive ideas. It ridicules the ways of the “New World” in order to perpetuate an idealized version of the “Old World”. Notwithstanding two exceptions – it condemns racism and bullfighting –, the humour of O Espreitador is conservative and conformist from a social and political standpoint.

Humor and the framing of the public sphere and public opinion in Portugal (1797-1834)

In his Answer to the Question: What is Enlightenment (1784), Kant puts forward his belief that the vocation to think freely, which humankind is endowed with, is bound to make sure that “the public use of reason” will at last act “even on the fundamental principles of government and the state [will] find it agreeable to treat man – who is now more than a machine – in accord with his dignity”. The critical reference to La Mettrie (1747), by opposing the machine to human dignity, will echo, in the dawn of the 20th century, in Bergson’s attempt to explain humor. Besides being exclusive to humans, humor is also a social phenomenon. Freud (1905) assures that pleasure originated by humor is collective, it results from a “social process”: jokes need an audience, a “third party”, in order to work and have fun. Assuming humor as a social and cultural phenomenon, this paper intends to sustain that it played a role in the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal during the transition from Absolute Monarchy to Liberalism. The search for the conditions which made possible the critical exercise of sociability is at the root of the creation of the public sphere in the sense developed by Habermas (1962), whose perspective, however, has been questioned by those who point 2 out the alleged idealism of the concept – as opposed, for example, to Bakhtin (1970), whose work stresses diversity and pluralism. This notwithstanding, the concept of public sphere is crucial to the building of public opinion, which is, in turn, indissoluble from the principle of publicity, as demonstrated by Bobbio (1985). This paper discusses the historical evolution of the concept of public opinion from Ancient Greece doxa, through Machiavelli’s “humors” (1532), the origin of the expression in Montaigne (1580) and the contributions of Hobbes (1651), Locke (1690), Swift (1729), Rousseau (1762) or Hume (1777), up to the reflection of Lippman (1922) and Bourdieu’s critique (1984). It maintains that humor, as it appears in Portuguese printed periodicals from 1797 (when Almocreve de Petas was published for the first time) to the end of the civil war (1834) – especially in those edited by José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa but also in O Piolho Viajante, by António Manuel Policarpo da Silva, or in the ones written by José Agostinho de Macedo, as well as in a political “elite minded” periodical such as Correio Braziliense –, contributed to the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal.

Self-initiation expatriation: A focus on Italian and Portuguese students

The purpose of this work project is to analyze the phenomenon of self-initiated expatriation (SIE) through its link to the Protean Career and Career Capital theories, focusing in particular on Italian and Portuguese students attending a Master in the business area. The main research questions are to understand the reasons driving the intention to expatriate, after the conclusion of the academic path, using three main categories (Adventure Motivation, Work Characteristic Motivation and instrumental Motivation) and the intention to repatriate. A sample of Italian and Portuguese students was obtained. Italians show a higher intention to expatriate relative to Portuguese; nevertheless, no other significant differences were found among the two populations, because of the similar cultural background and economic situation. Additionally, several heterogeneities were observed considering other clusters defined by Gender, Teaching Language of the Master and Past International Experiences, across the two nationalities. Furthermore, possible future researches and practical implications were discussed.

The role of humor in television advertisement: A study regarding Portuguese consumers’ emotions and reactions

The purpose of this study is to explore the humorous side of television advertisement and its impact on Portuguese consumers’ hearts, minds and wallets. Both qualitative (through in-depth interviews) and quantitative (through an on-line survey and subsequent statistical data analysis) methods were used, guaranteeing a more consistent, strong and valid research. Twenty-five interviews with randomly chosen consumers were conducted face-to-face and three interviews via e-mail with marketers and television advertisers were performed in order to explore profoundly the subject. Moreover, 360 people have answered the on-line survey. Through the analysis of the data collected humor perception was found to be positively correlated with persuasion and intention to purchase the product; intention to share the advert; message comprehension; product liking and development of positive feelings towards the brand and brand credibility variables. The main implication of these findings relies on the fact that humor in advertising is able to boost its effectiveness.

Adherence to health-related behaviors: effectiveness of implementation intentions and posthypnotic suggestion in college students

Resumo: Com base no conceito de implementação de intenções (Gollwitzer, 1993, 1999) e na teoria do contexto de resposta de Kirsch & Lynn (1997), o presente trabalho testou a eficácia de uma intervenção combinada de implementação de intenções com hipnose e sugestão pós-hipnótica na promoção da adesão a uma tarefa simples (avaliação do humor) e uma tarefa difícil (actividade física). Os participantes são estudantes universitários de uma universidade na Nova Jérsia, (N=124, Estudo 1, EUA) e em Lisboa (N=323, Estudo 2, Portugal). Em ambos os estudos os participantes foram seleccionados a partir de uma amostra mais vasta baseado num escrutínio da sua sugestibilidade hipnótica avaliada por meio da Escala de Grupo de Sugestibilidade Hipnótica de Waterloo-Stanford (WSGC): Forma C. O Estudo 1 usou um desenho factorial do tipo 2x2x3 (tipo de intenção formada x hipnose x nível de sugestionabilidade) e o Estudo 2 usou um desenho factorial do tipo 2 x 2x 2 x 4 (tipo de tarefa x tipo de intenção formada x hipnose x nível de sugestionabilidade). No Estudo 1 foi pedido aos participantes que corressem todos os dias e durante três semanas durante 5 minutos, que medissem a sua pulsação antes e depois da actividade física e que mandassem um e-mail ao experimentador, fornecendo assim uma medida comportamental e uma medida de auto-relato. Aos participantes no grupo de intenções de meta foi apenas pedido que corressem todos os dias. Aos participantes no grupo de implementação de intenções foi pedido que especificasses com exactidão quando e onde iriam correr e enviar o e-mail. Para além disso, cerca de metade dos participantes foram hipnotizados e receberam uma sugestão pós-hipnótica em que lhes foi sugerido que o pensamento de correr todos os dias lhes viria à mente sem esforço no momento apropriado. A outra metade dos participantes não recebeu qualquer sugestão hipnótica. No Estudo 2 foi seguido o mesmo procedimento, mas a cerca de metade dos participantes foi atribuída uma tarefa fácil (enviar um Adherence to health-related behaviors ix SMS com a avaliação diária do seu estado de humor naquele momento) e à outra metade da amostra foi atribuída a tarefa de exercício físico atrás descrita (tarefa difícil). Os resultados do estudo 1 mostraram uma interacção significativa entre o nível de sugestionabilidade dos participantes e a sugestão pós-hipnótica (p<.01) indicando que a administração da sugestão pós-hipnótica aumentou a adesão nos participantes muito sugestionáveis, mas baixou a adesão nos participantes pouco sugestionáveis. Não se encontraram diferenças entre os grupos que formaram intenções de meta e os que formaram implementação de intenções. No Estudo 2 os resultados indicaram que os participantes aderiram significativamente mais à tarefa fácil do que à tarefa difícil (p<.001). Os resultados não revelaram diferenças significativas entre as condições implementações de intenções, hipnose e as duas estratégias combinadas, indicando que a implementação de intenções não foi eficaz no aumento da adesão às duas tarefas propostas e não beneficiou da combinação com as sugestões pós-hipnóticas. A utilização da hipnose com sugestão pós-hipnótica significativamente reduziu a adesão a ambas as tarefas. Dado que não existiam instrumentos em Português destinados a avaliar a sugestionabilidade hipnótica, traduziu-se e adaptou-se para Português Escala de Grupo de sugestibilidade hipnótica de Waterloo-Stanford (WSGC): Forma C. A amostra Portuguesa (N=625) apresentou resultados semelhantes aos encontrados nas amostras de referência em termos do formato da distribuição dos padrões da pontuação e do índice de dificuldade dos itens. Contudo, a proporção de estudantes portugueses encontrada que pontuaram na zona superior de sugestionabilidade foi significativamente inferior à proporção de participantes na mesma zona encontrada nas amostras de referência. No sentido de lançar alguma luz sobre as razões para este resultado, inquiriu-se alguns dos participantes acerca das suas atitudes face à hipnose utilizando uma versão portuguesa da Escala de Valência de Atitudes e Crenças face à Hipnose e comparou-se com a opinião de Adherence to health-related behaviors xAbstract: On the basis of Gollwitzer’s (1993, 1999) implementation intentions’ concept, and Kirsch & Lynn’s (1997) response set theory, this dissertation tested the effectiveness of a combined intervention of implementation intentions with hypnosis with posthypnotic suggestions in enhancing adherence to a simple (mood report) and a difficult (physical activity) health-related task. Participants were enrolled in a university in New Jersey (N=124, Study 1, USA) and in two universities in Lisbon (N=323, Study 2, Portugal). In both studies participants were selected from a broader sample based on their suggestibility scores using the Waterloo-Stanford Group C (WSGC) scale of hypnotic susceptibility and then randomly assigned to the experimental groups. Study 1 used a 2x2x3 factorial design (instruction x hypnosis x level of suggestibility) and Study 2 used a 2 x 2x 2 x 4 factorial design (task x instructions x hypnosis x level of suggestibility). In Study 1 participants were asked to run in place for 5 minutes each day for a three-week period, to take their pulse rate before and after the activity, and to send a daily email report to the experimenter, thus providing both a self-report and a behavioral measure of adherence. Participants in the goal intention condition were simply asked to run in place and send the e-mail once a day. Those in the implementation intention condition were further asked to specify the exact place and time they would perform the physical activity and send the e-mail. In addition, half of the participants were given a post-hypnotic suggestion indicating that the thought of running in place would come to mind without effort at the appropriate moment. The other half did not receive a posthypnotic suggestion. Study 2 followed the same procedure, but additionally half of the participants were instructed to send a mood report by SMS (easy task) and half were assigned to the physical activity task described above (difficult task). Adherence to health-related behaviors vii Study 1 result’s showed a significant interaction between participant’s suggestibility level and posthypnotic suggestion (p<.01) indicating that posthypnotic suggestion enhanced adherence among highly suggestible participants, but lowered it among low suggestible individuals. No differences between the goal intention and the implementation intentions groups were found. In Study 2, participants adhered significantly more (p<.001) to the easy task than to the difficult task. Results did not revealed significant differences between the implementation intentions, hypnosis and the two conditions combined, indicating that implementation intentions was not enhanced by hypnosis with posthypnotic suggestion, neither was effective as single intervention in enhancing adherence to any of the tasks. Hypnosis with posthypnotic suggestion alone significantly reduced adherence to both tasks in comparison with participants that did not receive hypnosis. Since there were no instruments in Portuguese language to asses hypnotic suggestibility, the Waterloo-Stanford Group C (WSGC) scale of hypnotic susceptibility was translated and adapted to Portuguese and was used in the screening of a sample of college students from Lisbon (N=625). Results showed that the Portuguese sample has distribution shapes and difficulty patterns of hypnotic suggestibility scores similar to the reference samples, with the exception of the proportion of Portuguese students scoring in the high range of hypnotic suggestibility, that was found lower than the in reference samples. In order to shed some light on the reasons for this finding participant’s attitudes toward hypnosis were inquired using a Portuguese translation and adaptation of the Escala de Valencia de Actitudes y Creencias Hacia la Hipnosis, Versión Cliente, and compared with participants with no prior hypnosis experience (N=444). Significant differences were found between the two groups with participants without hypnosis experience scoring higher in factors indicating misconceptions and negative attitudes about hypnosis.

A new model for EEZ surveillance and management in Portugal

Management Information Systems 2000, p. 103-111

Cochineal, a precious source of red: cochineal dyes characterization by high performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection and principal component analysis

Presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologias, Universidade de Lisboa, to obtain the Master Degree in Conservation and Restoration of Textiles

Extracting temporal and spatial distributions information about marine mucilage phenomenon based on Modis satellite images; a case study of the Tyrrhenian and the Adriatic Sea, 2010-2012

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Mental health care assessed based on structure, process and outcome : a retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: As doenças mentais são comuns, universais e associadas a uma significativa sobrecarga pessoal, familiar, social e económica. Os Serviços de Saúde Mental devem abordar de forma adequada as necessidades dos pacientes e familiares tanto ao nível clínico como também ao nível social. O presente estudo foi realizado num período de grande transformação nos sistemas de saúde primário e de saúde mental em Portugal, num Departamento de Psiquiatria desenvolvido com base nos princípios da OMS. Os objectivos incluem a caracterização: 1) das Unidades Funcionais do Departamento; 2) dos pacientes internados pela primeira vez no internamento de agudos; 3) da utilização dos serviços nas equipas comunitárias após a alta; e 4) da avaliação de alguns dos indicadores de qualidade do departamento, com recurso ao modelo de Donabedian sobre a articulação entre a Estrutura-Processo-Resultados. Metodologia: Foi escolhido um estudo de coorte retrospectivo. Todos os pacientes internados pela primeira vez entre 2008 e 2010 foram incluídos no estudo. Os seus processos clínicos e a base de dados do hospital onde são registados todos os contactos que estes tiveram com os profissionais de saúde mental foram revistos de forma a obter dados sociodemográficos e clínicos, durante o período do estudo e após a alta. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o WHO-ICMHC (Classificação Internacional de Cuidados de Saúde Mental), para caracterizar o Departamento, o AIESMP (Avaliação Inicial de Enfermagem em Saúde Mental e Psiquiatria) para recolha dos dados sociodemográficos, e o VSSS (Escala de Satisfação com os Serviços de Verona) de forma a avaliar a satisfação dos pacientes em relação aos cuidados recebidos. A análise estatística incluiu a análise descritiva, quantitativa e qualitativa dos dados. Resultados: As Unidades Funcionais do Departamento revelaram níveis elevados de articulação e consistência com as necessidades de cuidados psiquiátricos e reabilitação psicossocial dos pacientes. Os 543 pacientes admitidos pela primeira vez eram maioritariamente (56.9%) mulheres, caucasianas (81.2%), com diagnóstico de perturbações do humor (66.3%), internadas voluntariamente (59.7%), e uma idade média de 45.1 anos. Estas eram significativamente mais velhas, mais frequentemente empregadas, casadas/coabitar e tinham uma prevalência mais elevada de perturbações do humor, comparativamente aos homens. O internamento compulsivo era mais significativo nos homens (54.7%). A taxa de abandono no pós-alta (4.2%) e a taxa de reinternamentos (2.9%) na quinzena após a alta revelaram-se inferiores aos padrões na literatura internacional. De forma global, a satisfação dos pacientes com os cuidados de saúde mental foi positiva. Conclusões: Os cuidados prestados mostraram-se eficazes, adaptados e baseados nas necessidades e problemas específicos dos pacientes. A continuidade e a abrangência de cuidados foram difundidos e mantidos ao longo do processo de cuidados. Este Departamento pode ser considerado um exemplo de como proporcionar tratamento digno e eficiente, e uma referência para futuros serviços de psiquiatria.-------------- ABSTRACT: Mental health disorders are common, universal, and associated with heavy personal, family, social and economic burden. Mental health services should be aimed at adequately addressing patients’ and families’ needs at clinical and social level. The current study was carried out at a time of great transformation in the health and mental health systems in Portugal, in a Psychiatric Department developed taking in consideration the WHO principles. The objectives included characterizing: 1) the Psychiatric Department’s different units; 2) the patients admitted for the first time to the inpatient unit; 3) their use of community mental health services after discharge; and 4) assessing some of the department’s quality indicators, with resource to Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome model. Methodology: A retrospective cohort design was chosen. All the firstly admitted patients in the period between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Their clinical records and the hospital’s database which registers all of the contacts the patients had with the mental health professionals during the study period, were reviewed to retrieve sociodemographic and clinical data and information on follow-up. The instruments used were the WHO International Classification of Mental Health Care (ICMHC) to characterize the department, the Initial Nurses’ Assessment in Mental Health and Psychiatry (AIESMP) for patients’ sociodemographic data, and the Verona Service Satisfaction Scale (VSSS) to assess patients’ satisfaction with care received. Statistical analysis included descriptive, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data. Results: The Department’s Functional units revealed high levels of articulation, and were consistent with patients’ needs for psychiatric care and psychosocial rehabilitation. The 543 patients firstly admitted were mainly (56.9%) female, Caucasian (81.2%), diagnosed with mood disorders (66.3%), voluntarily admitted (59.7%), and with a mean age of 45.1 years. Female patients were significantly older, more frequently employed, married/cohabiting and had a higher prevalence of mood disorders when compared to males. Involuntary admission was more significant in males (54.7%). Dropout rates during follow-up (4.2%) and readmission rates (2.9%) in the fortnight following discharge were lower than standards in international literature. Overall patients’ satisfaction with mental health care was positive. Conclusions: The care delivered was effective, adapted and based on the patients’ specific needs and problems. Continuity and comprehensiveness of care was endorsed and maintained throughout the care process. This department may be considered an example of both humane and effective treatment, and a reference for future psychiatric care.

Market orientation in Italian wineries

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Staging the Scientist: The Representation of Science and its Processes in American and British Drama

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estudos Ingleses e Norte Americanos