Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Materials handling in hospitals: An analysis of how the storage and materials handling system can be improved, using the example of Hospital Santa Maria

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Caracterização da carga da doença arterial periférica dos membros inferiores : contributos para um melhor conhecimento do peso desta doença no internamento hospitalar

RESUMO - A doença arterial periférica (DAP) apresenta uma carga de doença significativa, afetando cerca de 3 a 10% da população em geral e 15 a 20% dos indivíduos com idade superior a 70 anos. A sua prevalência em Portugal foi estimada em cerca de 5,9% no continente; 6,6% na Região Autónoma dos Açores (RAA) e 3,8% na Região Autónoma da Madeira (RAM). Para além da importante carga de doença, quer em termos epidemiológicos, quer económicos, a DAP confere aos seus portadores um risco cardiovascular agravado, sendo que os mesmos apresentam cerca do triplo do risco de mortalidade e de eventos cardiovasculares quando comparados com indivíduos sem DAP. Tratou-se de um estudo observacional, transversal e descritivo tendo como base duas populações de estudo. A primeira é referente aos hospitais do Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS) com a valência de cirurgia vascular e a segunda à população portuguesa com episódios de internamento por diagnóstico de DAP dos membros inferiores (MI) nos anos de 2013 e 2014 na totalidade dos hospitais do SNS. Através da análise dos resultados do questionário procedeu-se à descrição de algumas das características dos serviços e unidades de cirurgia vascular de sete hospitais do SNS; através da análise da base de dados dos GDH para os anos de 2013 e 2014 procedeu-se à caracterização do peso do internamento por DAP dos membros inferiores a nível nacional no mesmo período. A DAP tem uma carga significativa e atendendo aos seus fatores de risco e história natural da doença, apresenta uma tendência crescente durante os próximos anos, representando por isso um enorme desafio para os sistemas de saúde. São, no entanto, necessários estudos mais aprofundados sobre o tema que permitam conhecer melhor o peso desta patologia e, de forma global, melhorar o planeamento, tendo por base a caracterização quer do lado da procura (dados epidemiológicos e peso no internamento), quer da oferta (capacidade instalada).

Access of WetAMD and DME patients to treatment in public hospitals

Degeneration (WetAMD) and Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) patients’ access to treatment in public hospitals, by identifying bottlenecks and stress points that prevent timely and adequate care to patients who suffer from a degenerative disease, and consequently for whom the lack of access to treatment can have disastrous consequences. Considering the specificity and degenerative traits of these conditions, the long queues for specialty appointments in public hospitals are a significant threat to patients’ health, as the disease may be misdiagnosed and or progress significantly, causing unnecessary permanent and non-reversible loss in visual acuity. Therefore optimizing the patient journey will increase patients’ access to adequate treatment, and prevent avoidable progress of a degenerative condition which causes permanent and non-reversible blindness. Following the investigation which supports this thesis, the patient journey was broken down into its different phases, so that key issues could be identified, and referred back to the main stress points highlighted during the interviews with physicians and administrators. Finally results were scrutinized and systematized, and a set of action points was proposed, considering what may cause major impact and is actually feasible to implement.