A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion

This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.

Robustness of timber structures in seismic areas

Some of the properties sought in seismic design of buildings are also considered fundamental to guarantee structural robustness. Moreover, some key concepts are common to both seismic and robustness design. In fact, both analyses consider events with a very small probability of occurrence, and consequently, a significant level of damage is admissible. As very rare events,in both cases, the actions are extremely hard to quantify. The acceptance of limited damage requires a system based analysis of structures, rather than an element by element methodology, as employed for other load cases. As for robustness analysis, in seismic design the main objective is to guarantee that the structure survives an earthquake, without extensive damage. In the case of seismic design, this is achieved by guaranteeing the dissipation of energy through plastic hinges distributed in the structure. For this to be possible, some key properties must be assured, in particular ductility and redundancy. The same properties could be fundamental in robustness design, as a structure can only sustain significant damage if capable of distributing stresses to parts of the structure unaffected by the triggering event. Timber is often used for primary load‐bearing elements in single storey long‐span structures for public buildings and arenas, where severe consequences can be expected if one or more of the primary load bearing elements fail. The structural system used for these structures consists of main frames, secondary elements and bracing elements. The main frame, composed by columns and beams, can be seen as key elements in the system and should be designed with high safety against failure and under strict quality control. The main frames may sometimes be designed with moment resisting joints between columns and beams. Scenarios, where one or more of these key elements, fail should be considered at least for high consequence buildings. Two alternative strategies may be applied: isolation of collapsing sections and, provision of alternate load paths [1]. The first one is relatively straightforward to provide by deliberately designing the secondary structural system less strong and stiff. Alternatively, the secondary structural system and the bracing system can be design so that loss of capacity in the main frame does not lead to the collapse. A case study has been selected aiming to assess the consequences of these two different strategies, in particular, under seismic loads.

Reconstitution of the failure of the Fonte Santa mine tailings dam. Modelling of the dam breaching process

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Tuberculose e infecção VIH/SIDA : uma análise comparativa em Portugal continental no biénio 2008-2009

RESUMO - Introdução: Actualmente 11,3 milhões de indivíduos estão co-infectados pela Tuberculose/Vírus Imunodeficiência Humana (TB/VIH), uma das principais causas de incapacidade e morte no mundo. É determinada pela exposição dos indivíduos aos factores de risco e condições/determinantes sociais de saúde. Várias são as medidas criadas a nível nacional e internacional na luta contra TB e a infecção VIH. Objectivo: Caracterizar e comparar os casos de TB entre os indivíduos não infectados com VIH e os infectados com VIH, considerando as características sócio-demográficas, o tratamento, patologias associadas e factores de risco. Método: Estudo descritivo, quantitativo e observacional. A informação foi obtida a partir da base de dados do Sistema Nacional de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Tuberculose dos casos de TB notificados entre 1 de Janeiro de 2008 a 31 de Dezembro de 2009. Para tratamento e análise estatística (descritiva e inferencial) o programa usado foi o SPSS versão 18,0. Resultados: 12,8% dos indivíduos estavam co-infectados com TB/VIH e 87,2% não estavam co-infectados. A presença de VIH nos casos de tuberculose apresenta evidência de relação com quase todas variáveis em estudo (p<0,00) excepto a presença de insuficiência renal (p<0,307). Apresentam maior probalidade de risco da co-infecção TB/VIH os homens, a faixa etária [35;44[, os estrangeiros, os desempregados, estar em retratamento e fumar. Os indivíduos com Doença Hepática (OR= 5,238; IC95%: 3,706;7,403; ORA = 3,104; IC95%: 2,164;4,454), patologias associadas (OR=13,199; IC95%: 11,246; 15,491; ORA=21,348; IC95%:17,569; 25,940) e factores de risco (OR=3,237; IC95%: 2,968; 3,531; ORA=2,644; IC95%: 2,414; 2,985) tem maior probalidade da co-infecção TB/VIH. O ajustamento para o sexo e a idade interferiu em todas variáveis em estudo. Conclusão: Os homens, da faixa etária [35;44 [, desempregados, estrangeiros, em retratamento, fumadores apresentam maior probalidade de risco de estar co-infectado com TB/VIH.

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

A lesão de isquémia/reperfusão em transplante hepático: análise genética, morfológica e correlação clínica

RESUMO: O transplante hepático ortotópico é uma terapêutica aceite para casos selecionados de falência hepática terminal. O procedimento tem-­‐se aperfeiçoado, evidenciado pelo aumento da taxa de sobrevida de 30 para 75% aos 5 anos, mas cerca de 13 a 27% dos enxertos desenvolve falência primária (PNF) ou disfunção primária (DF) após o transplante. As consequências são devastadoras para a sobrevida do doente e do enxerto. A sua etiologia é multifactorial, incluindo factores relacionados com o dador e o receptor, tempos de isquémia, agressões cirúrgicas, bem como características anatomopatológicas do enxerto. A lesão de isquémia/reperfusão mantem-­‐se como um factor de risco intra operatório, com implicações directas sobre toda a evolução do transplante : existe uma relação íntima entre a PNF e a DF, a preservação do enxerto, a lesão de isquémia/reperfusão, e a falência do transplante. Além disso, está comprovada evidência que sugere que a lesão de I/R torna um aloenxerto mais vulnerável por aumento da imunogenicidade, aumentando a probabilidade de episódios de rejeição precoce e tardia. Com base na prática clínica quotidiana do CHBPT HCC, estudaram-­‐se 54 casos de transplante hepático, agrupados segundo grupos por alocação do enxerto respectivo: Grupo 1(n=27): dador cadáver para receptor cirrótico, Grupo 2 (n=15): dador cadáver para receptor PAF, Grupo 3 (n=12): dador PAF para receptor cirrótico. Observaram-­‐se as alterações histológicas e moleculares sobre o enxerto até ao final da operação do receptor, e as suas consequências clínicas,avaliando: -­‐ As diferentes capacidades de resistência e cada enxerto à lesão de isquémia/reperfusão. -­‐ As situações em que os factores do receptor se sobrepõem às do enxerto na definição do prognóstico, e vice versa. -­‐ A relevância das lesões histológicas e moleculares precoces no tecido hepático na evolução do enxerto e do receptor. Foram colhidas biópsias por agulha dos 54 enxertos hepáticos,42 provenientes de cadáver com coração batente(morte cerebral) e 12 provenientes de dador vivo com PAF, em três tempos diferentes do processo de colheita e transplante hepático: ­‐ A primeira(T0)antes da clampagem da aorta do dador -­‐ A segunda (T1) no final da isquémia fria -­‐ A terceira (T2) após a reperfusão do enxerto, durante o encerramento da parede abdominal. A estas amostras foi extraído RNA total, convertido em cDNA por transcrição reversa e feita a análise da expressão dos genes da CTLA4, IL-­‐1β, IL-­‐4, IL-­‐6, IL-­‐13, TNF-­‐α, Perforina, Selectina, (SELE), Fas-­‐ligando, Granzima-­‐B, Heme-­‐Oxigenase 1(HO1)e Óxido Nítrico Sintetase(iNOS2A)por PCR quantitativo segundo o método do Ct comparativo, utilizando como referência a expressão dos genes da amostra não-­‐isquémica –T0. Os fragmentos de todas as biópsias foram seccionados, para envio de amostra comparativa para processamento histológico habitual, sem qualquer alteração ao protocolo seguido habitualmente na Unidade de Transplantação do Hospital Curry Cabral. A presença de alguns parâmetros histológicos definidos, como esteatose, necrose, vacuolização, congestão sinusoidal e infiltração neutrofílica, foi registada e contabilizada numa classificação numérica. O seguimento clínico e laboratorial, bem como o acompanhamento de eventuais complicações, foi registado e correlacionado com os dados das colheitas de órgãos e com os dados das biópsias. Foram consideradas as seguintes variáveis, como as mais relevantes e objectivas para a interpretação da evolução clínica, tendo sido comparadas estatisticamente com os dados recolhidos, laboratoriais e clínicos: disfunção do enxerto, 207 pós operatórias, número de internamentos igual ou superior a 2 e rejeição crónica e/ou morte do receptor. Foram identificadas características clínicas menos favoráveis, a considerar, nalgumas circunstâncias: género feminino do receptor (sobretudo associado a enxerto masculino, p=0,077), isquémia fria superior a 500 minutos (p=0,074), isquémia quente superior a 90 minutos (p=0,099). Na análise laboratorial, distinguiram-­‐se duas características histológicas desfavoráveis e irreversíveis, como índice de mau prognóstico: a necrose e a balonização (p=0,029); no painel genético escolhido neste estudo,a expressão basal de IL-­‐1β(p=0,028), de SELE p=0,013)e de FAS-­‐L (p=0,079)relacionaram-­‐se com pior prognóstico. Algumas características protectoras intrínsecas dos enxertos só se revelaram indirectamente, como menor infiltração neutrofílica e maior expressão de HO1 e de iNOS nos enxertos PAF, não tendo sido possível provar uma interferência directa nos resultados clínicos. Não se obteve expressão mensurável de genes anti-­‐ inflamatórios nas biopsias hepáticas processadas neste estudo, como a IL13 e a I 4: assim, com a metodologia utilizada, não foi possível obter um perfil de expressão genética associado a boa evolução clínica. O perfil inverso foi sugerido apenas pela expressão basal dos 3 genes mencionados (FAS-­‐L,IL-­‐1β e SELE)no mesmo painel, com o protocolo seguido neste conjunto de 54 doentes. As características do receptor sobrepuseram-­‐se às do enxerto no caso de: -­‐ diagnóstico de PAF no receptor, que determinou uma maior predisposição para a disfunção do enxerto, o que, por sua vez, determina uma menor sobrevida. No entanto, o diagnóstico de PAF no receptor exibe uma curva de sobrevida mais favorável. -­‐ receptores com um baixo balanço de risco (BAR)definiram características favoráveis para enxertos com níveis baixos e moderados de esteatose, fazendo que esta característica, definida como um risco acrescido, não só não se manifestasse clinicamente,como parecesse um factor favorável. As características do enxerto sobrepuseram-­‐se às do receptor no caso de: -­‐ tempo de isquémia fria superior a 500 minutos -­‐ balonização, necrose, FAS-­‐L,IL-­‐1β e SELE em T0 A integração dos resultados moleculares e morfológicos com a evolução clínica, realça o papel da mobilização precoce de neutrófilos nos desempenhos menos favoráveis do enxerto hepático. -------------ABSTRACT: Orthotopic liver transplantation is na accepted therapeutic procedure for selected cases of terminal liver failure. The procedure has been improved, evidenced by the rise of survival rates from 30 to 70% at 5 years, but 13 to 27% of the liver grafts develops primary non function (PNF) or primary dysfunction (PDF) after transplantation. The consequences are devastating for the survival of the patient and of the graft. Its etiology is multifactorial, including factos related with the donor and with the recipient, ischemic times, surgical aggressions, as well as the histological characteristics of the graft. The ischemia/reperfusion lesion is still an intraoperative risk factor, with direct implications in the whole transplant outcome: there is a close interrelation between PNF and DF, graft preservation, ischemia / reperfusion lesion and graft failure. Beyond his, there is proved evidence that suggests that I/R lesion turns the allograft more vulnerable by increasing its immunogenity, increasing the probability of precocious and late rejection episodes. Based on the daily clinical practice at CHBPT /HCC, 54 cases of hepatic transplantation have been studied, grouped by allocation of each graft: Group (n=27):deceased do nortocirrhotic recipient, Group 2 (n=15): deceased donor to FAP recipient, Group 3 (n=12): FAP living donor to cirrhotic recipient. The histologic and molecular changes in the liver graft were observed until the end of the recipiente operation,together with its clinical consequences, evaluating:-­‐The different capacity of resistance of each graft to the ischemia / reperfusion lesion -­‐ The situations where the recipiente factos overlap the ones of the graft, in the definition of prognosis, and vice versa.-­‐ The relevance of the precocious histologic and molecular lesions of the hepatic tissue in the clinical outcome of the graft and the recipient. Needle biopsies were obtained from 54 liver grafts, 42 deceased brain dead donors and 12 from FAP living donors, at three diferente times of the harvesting and the hepatic transplantation: The first one (T0) before clamping the donor aorta -­‐ The second one (T2) in the end of cold ischemia time -­‐ The third one (T) after the reperfusion of the graft, during the closure of the abdominal wall. Total RNAwas extracted to these samples, converted to cDNA by reverse transcription and the analysis of gene expression was made for CTLA4,IL-­‐1β,IL-­‐4,IL-­‐6,IL-­‐13,TNF-­‐α,Perforin,E Selectin (SELE),Fas-­‐ligand,Granzyme-­‐B,Heme-­‐oxigenase 1 (HO1) and Nitric Oxide Sintetase (iNOS2A) by quantitative PCR, according with the Ct comparative method, using the expression of the non ischemic sample – T0. The fragments of all the biopsies were divided, to send a comparative sample to the usual histologic processement, keeping the same usual protocol at the Transplantation Unit of Curry Cabral Hospital. The presence of some defined histologic parameters, such as steatosis, necrosis, vacuolization, sinusoidal congestion and neutrophilic infiltration, was registered and catalogued in a numeric classification. The clinical and laboratory follow-­‐up, as well as the following of eventual complications, was registered and correlated with the data from organ procurement operations and with the data from the biopsies. The following variables were considered as the most relevant and objective ones, to the interpretation of the clinical evolution, being statistically compared with the clinical and laboratorial collected data: graft dysfunction, post-­‐operative complications, number of readmissions of 2 or more and chronic rejection and /or recipiente death. There were identified some unfavorable clinical characteristics, to be considered under certain circumstances: recipiente female gender (specially associated with malegraft, p=0,077), cold ischemia time of more than 500 minutes (p=0,074), warm ischemia time of more than 90 minutes (p=0,099). In the laboratory analysis, two histologic characteristics were identified as unfavorable and irreversible, associated with bad prognosis: necrosis and balonization (p=0,029); in the gene panel selected in this study, the basal expression of IL-­‐1β (p=0,028), SELE (p=0,013) and FAS-­‐L (p=0,079)were related with worse prognosis.Some intrinsic protective characteristics of the grafts were only indirectly revealed, such as less neutrophilic infiltration and bigger expression of HO1 and iNOS in FAP grafts, being impossible to prove any direct inte ference in the clinical results. A relevant and measurable expression of the anti inflammatory genes IL13 and IL4 was not obtained: with the used methodology, it was impossible to obtain a gene expression profile associated with a favorable clinical outcome.The inverse profile was suggested only by the basal expression of the three mentioned genes (FAS-­‐L, IL-­‐ 1β e SELE) in the same gene panel, according with the followed protocol in this group of 54 patients. The characteristics of the recipient overlapped those from the graft, in the case of :-­‐ FAP diagnosis in the recipient, which determined a bigger predisposition to graft dysfunction, which by itself determines a shorter survival. However, FAP diagnosis in the recipiente depicts a more favorable survival curve. -­‐ Recipients with a low balance risk índex (BAR) defined favorable characteristics to grafts with low and moderate grades of steatosis, making that this characteristic, associated with bad prognosis, looked like a favorable factor, and with no clinical interference. The graft characteristics overlapped those from the receptor in the case of: -­‐ Cold ischemic time more than 500 minutes -­‐ Balonization, necrosis, FAS-­‐L, IL-­‐1β and SELE at T0. The integration of molecular and morphologic results with the clinical evolution, stresses the role of a precocious neutrophils mobilization in the worse outcomes of liver grafts.

Corporate governance failure at PT

The following case study depicts the bitter transfiguration of Portugal Telecom, SGPS (PT), a multinational telecommunications company that was once an honourable flag of innovation, corporate governance standards in Portugal and overseas. It scrutinises the controversial episodes that paved the way for the pitiful condition in which PT is nowadays: a company that carries the weight of a ruinous €897 million investment in a defaulted company and no more than a 25.6% stake in a heavily indebted Brazilian carrier. The free-fall is made, ironically, of a complete disregard for best corporate governance practices, allowing for PT’s major shareholders to take over the helm of the company, using it selfishly as a cash cow.