Determinants of Portuguese external imbalances

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Can the complex mixture of sediment contaminants cause endocrine disruption on a benthic fish? A case study with Solea senegalensis

Pollution in coastal ecosystems is a serious threat to the biota and human populations there residing. Anthropogenic activities in these ecosystems are the main cause of contamination by endocrine disruption compounds (EDCs), which can interfere with hormonal regulation and cause adverse effects to growth, stress response and reproduction. Although the chemical nature of many EDCs is unknown, it is believed that most are organic contaminants. Under an environmental risk assessment for a contaminated estuary (the Sado, SW Portugal), the present work intended to detect endocrine disruption in a flatsfish, Solea senegalensis Kaup, 1858, and its potential relationship to organic toxicants. Animals were collected from two areas in the estuary with distinct influences (industrial and rural) and from an external reference area. To evaluate endocrine disruption, hepatic vitellogenin (VTG) concentrations in males and gonad histology were analysed. As biomarkers of exposure to organic contaminants, cytochrome P450 (CYP1A) induction and the ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity were determined. The results were contrasted to sediment contamination levels, which are overall considered low, although the area presents a complex mixture of toxicants. Either males or females were found sexually immature and showed no significant evidence of degenerative pathologies. However, hepatic VTG concentrations in males from the industrial area in estuary were superior than those from the Reference, even reaching levels comparable to those in females, which may indicate an oestrogenic effect resulting from the complex contaminant mixture. These individuals also presented higher levels of CYP1A induction and EROD activity, which is consistent with contamination by organic substances. The combination of the results suggest that the exposure of flatfish to an environment contaminated by mixed toxicants, even at low levels, may cause endocrine disruption, therefore affecting populations, which implies the need for further research in identification of potential EDCs, their sources and risks at ecosystem scale.

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Estudo da exposição profissional a formaldeído em laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica

RESUMO - A exposição a formaldeído é reconhecidamente um dos mais importantes factores de risco presente nos laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica. Neste contexto ocupacional, o formaldeído é utilizado em solução, designada comummente por formol. Trata-se de uma solução comercial de formaldeído, normalmente diluída a 10%, sendo pouco onerosa e, por esse motivo, a eleita para os trabalhos de rotina em anatomia patológica. A solução é utilizada como fixador e conservante do material biológico, pelo que as peças anatómicas a serem processadas são previamente impregnadas. No que concerne aos efeitos para a saúde do formaldeído, os efeitos locais parecem apresentar um papel mais importante comparativamente com os efeitos sistémicos, devido à sua reactividade e rápido metabolismo nas células da pele, tracto gastrointestinal e pulmões. Da mesma forma, a localização das lesões correspondem principalmente às zonas expostas às doses mais elevadas deste agente químico, ou seja, o desenvolvimento dos efeitos tóxicos dependerá mais da intensidade da dose externa do que da duração da exposição. O efeito do formaldeído no organismo humano mais facilmente detectável é a acção irritante, transitória e reversível sobre as mucosas dos olhos e aparelho respiratório superior (naso e orofaringe), o que acontece em geral para exposições frequentes e superiores a 1 ppm. Doses elevadas são citotóxicas e podem conduzir a degenerescência e necrose das mucosas e epitélios. No que concerne aos efeitos cancerígenos, a primeira avaliação efectuada pela International Agency for Research on Cancer data de 1981, actualizada em 1982, 1987, 1995 e 2004, considerando-o como um agente cancerígeno do grupo 2A (provavelmente carcinogénico). No entanto, a mais recente avaliação, em 2006, considera o formaldeído no Grupo 1 (agente carcinogénico) com base na evidência de que a exposição a este agente é susceptível de causar cancro nasofaríngeo em humanos. Constituiu objectivo principal deste estudo caracterizar a exposição profissional a formaldeído nos laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica Portugueses. Pretendeu-se, ainda, descrever os fenómenos ambientais da contaminação ambiental por formaldeído e explorar eventuais associações entre variáveis. Considerou-se uma amostra de 10 laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica, avaliada a exposição dos três grupos profissionais por comparação com os dois referenciais de exposição e, ainda, conhecidos os valores de concentração máxima em 83 actividades. Foram aplicados simultaneamente dois métodos distintos de avaliação ambiental: um dos métodos (Método 1) fez uso de um equipamento de leitura directa com o princípio de medição por Photo Ionization Detection, com uma lâmpada de 11,7 eV e, simultaneamente, realizou-se o registo da actividade. Este método disponibilizou dados para o referencial de exposição da concentração máxima; o outro método (Método 2) traduziu-se na aplicação do método NIOSH 2541, implicando o uso de bombas de amostragem eléctricas de baixo caudal e posterior processamento analítico das amostras por cromatografia gasosa. Este método, por sua vez, facultou dados para o referencial de exposição da concentração média ponderada. As estratégias de medição de cada um dos métodos e a definição dos grupos de exposição existentes neste contexto ocupacional, designadamente os Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica, os Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas e os Auxiliares, foram possíveis através da informação disponibilizada pelas técnicas de observação da actividade da análise (ergonómica) do trabalho. Estudaram-se diversas variáveis independentes, nomeadamente a temperatura ambiente e a humidade relativa, a solução de formaldeído utilizada, as condições de ventilação existentes e o número médio de peças processadas por dia em cada laboratório. Para a recolha de informação sobre estas variáveis foi preenchida, durante a permanência nos laboratórios estudados, uma Grelha de Observação e Registo. Como variáveis dependentes seleccionaram-se três indicadores de contaminação ambiental, designadamente o valor médio das concentrações superiores a 0,3 ppm em cada laboratório, a Concentração Média Ponderada obtida para cada grupo de exposição e o Índice do Tempo de Regeneração de cada laboratório. Os indicadores foram calculados e definidos através dos dados obtidos pelos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental aplicados. Baseada no delineado pela Universidade de Queensland, foi ainda aplicada uma metodologia de avaliação do risco de cancro nasofaríngeo nas 83 actividades estudadas de modo a definir níveis semi-quantitativos de estimação do risco. Para o nível de Gravidade considerou-se a informação disponível em literatura científica que define eventos biológicos adversos, relacionados com o modo de acção do agente químico e os associa com concentrações ambientais de formaldeído. Para o nível da Probabilidade utilizou-se a informação disponibilizada pela análise (ergonómica) de trabalho que permitiu conhecer a frequência de realização de cada uma das actividades estudadas. A aplicação simultânea dos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental resultou na obtenção de resultados distintos, mas não contraditórios, no que concerne à avaliação da exposição profissional a formaldeído. Para as actividades estudadas (n=83) verificou-se que cerca de 93% dos valores são superiores ao valor limite de exposição definido para a concentração máxima (VLE-CM=0,3 ppm). O “exame macroscópico” foi a actividade mais estudada e onde se verificou a maior prevalência de resultados superiores ao valor limite (92,8%). O valor médio mais elevado da concentração máxima (2,04 ppm) verificou-se no grupo de exposição dos Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica. No entanto, a maior amplitude de resultados observou-se no grupo dos Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas (0,21 ppm a 5,02 ppm). No que respeita ao referencial da Concentração Média Ponderada, todos os valores obtidos nos 10 laboratórios estudados para os três grupos de exposição foram inferiores ao valor limite de exposição definido pela Occupational Safety and Health Administration (TLV-TWA=0,75 ppm). Verificou-se associação estatisticamente significativa entre o número médio de peças processadas por laboratório e dois dos três indicadores de contaminação ambiental utilizados, designadamente o valor médio das concentrações superiores a 0,3 ppm (p=0,009) e o Índice do Tempo de Regeneração (p=0,001). Relativamente à temperatura ambiente não se observou associação estatisticamente significativa com nenhum dos indicadores de contaminação ambiental utilizados. A humidade relativa apresentou uma associação estatisticamente significativa apenas com o indicador de contaminação ambiental da Concentração Média Ponderada de dois grupos de exposição, nomeadamente com os Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas (p=0,02) e os Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica (p=0,04). A aplicação da metodologia de avaliação do risco nas 83 actividades estudadas permitiu verificar que, em cerca de dois terços (35%), o risco foi classificado como (pelo menos) elevado e, ainda, constatar que 70% dos laboratórios apresentou pelo menos 1 actividade com a classificação de risco elevado. Da aplicação dos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental e das informações obtidas para os dois referenciais de exposição pode concluir-se que o referencial mais adequado é a Concentração Máxima por estar associado ao modo de actuação do agente químico. Acresce, ainda, que um método de avaliação ambiental, como o Método 1, que permite o estudo das concentrações de formaldeído e simultaneamente a realização do registo da actividade, disponibiliza informações pertinentes para a intervenção preventiva da exposição por permitir identificar as actividades com a exposição mais elevada, bem como as variáveis que a condicionam. As peças anatómicas apresentaram-se como a principal fonte de contaminação ambiental por formaldeído neste contexto ocupacional. Aspecto de particular interesse, na medida que a actividade desenvolvida neste contexto ocupacional e, em particular na sala de entradas, é centrada no processamento das peças anatómicas. Dado não se perspectivar a curto prazo a eliminação do formaldeído, devido ao grande número de actividades que envolvem ainda a utilização da sua solução comercial (formol), pode concluir-se que a exposição a este agente neste contexto ocupacional específico é preocupante, carecendo de uma intervenção rápida com o objectivo de minimizar a exposição e prevenir os potenciais efeitos para a saúde dos trabalhadores expostos. ---------------- ABSTRACT - Exposure to formaldehyde is recognized as one of the most important risk factors present in anatomy and pathology laboratories from hospital settings. In this occupational setting, formaldehyde is used in solution, typically diluted to 10%, and is an inexpensive product. Because of that, is used in routine work in anatomy and pathology laboratories. The solution is applied as a fixative and preservative of biological material. Regarding formaldehyde health effects, local effects appear to have a more important role compared with systemic effects, due to his reactivity and rapid metabolism in skin, gastrointestinal tract and lungs cells. Likewise, lesions location correspond mainly to areas exposed to higher doses and toxic effects development depend more on external dose intensity than exposure duration. Human body formaldehyde effect more easily detectable is the irritating action, transient and reversible on eyes and upper respiratory tract (nasal and throat) membranes, which happen in general for frequent exposure to concentrations higher than 1 ppm. High doses are cytotoxic and can lead to degeneration, and also to mucous membranes and epithelia necrosis. With regard to carcinogenic effects, first assessment performed by International Agency for Research on Cancer in 1981, updated in 1982, 1987, 1995 and 2004, classified formaldehyde in Group 2A (probably carcinogenic). However, most recent evaluation in 2006, classifies formaldehyde carcinogenic (Group 1), based on evidence that exposure to this agent is likely to cause nasopharyngeal cancer in humans. This study principal objective was to characterize occupational exposure to formaldehyde in anatomy and pathology hospital laboratories, as well to describe formaldehyde environmental contamination phenomena and explore possible associations between variables. It was considered a sample of 10 hospital pathology laboratories, assessed exposure of three professional groups for comparison with two exposure metrics, and also knows ceiling concentrations in 83 activities. Were applied, simultaneously, two different environmental assessment methods: one method (Method 1) using direct reading equipment that perform measure by Photo Ionization Detection, with 11,7 eV lamps and, simultaneously, make activity description and film. This method provided data for ceiling concentrations for each activity study (TLV-C). In the other applied method (Method 2), air sampling and formaldehyde analysis were performed according to NIOSH method (2541). This method provided data average exposure concentration (TLV-TWA). Measuring and sampling strategies of each methods and exposure groups definition (Technicians, Pathologists and Assistants) was possible by information provided by activities (ergonomic) analysis. Several independent variables were studied, including temperature and relative humidity, formaldehyde solution used, ventilation conditions, and also anatomic pieces mean value processed per day in each laboratory. To register information about these variables was completed an Observation and Registration Grid. Three environmental contamination indicators were selected has dependent variables namely: mean value from concentrations exceeding 0,3 ppm in each laboratory, weighted average concentration obtained for each exposure group, as well each laboratory Time Regeneration Index. These indicators were calculated and determined through data obtained by the two environmental assessment methods. Based on Queensland University proposal, was also applied a methodology for assessing nasopharyngeal cancer risk in 83 activities studied in order to obtain risk levels (semi-quantitative estimation). For Severity level was considered available information in scientific literature that defines biological adverse events related to the chemical agent action mode, and associated with environment formaldehyde concentrations. For Probability level was used information provided by (ergonomic) work analysis that helped identifies activity frequency. Environmental assessment methods provide different results, but not contradictory, regarding formaldehyde occupational exposure evaluation. In the studied activities (n=83), about 93% of the values were above exposure limit value set for ceiling concentration in Portugal (VLE-CM = 0,3 ppm). "Macroscopic exam" was the most studied activity, and obtained the higher prevalence of results superior than 0,3 ppm (92,8%). The highest ceiling concentration mean value (2,04 ppm) was obtain in Technicians exposure group, but a result wider range was observed in Pathologists group (0,21 ppm to 5,02 ppm). Concerning Method 2, results from the three exposure groups, were all lower than limit value set by Occupational Safety and Health Administration (TLV-TWA=0,75ppm). There was a statistically significant association between anatomic pieces mean value processed by each laboratory per day, and two of the three environmental contamination indicators used, namely average concentrations exceeding 0,3 ppm (p=0,009) and Time Regeneration Index (p=0,001). Temperature was not statistically associated with any environmental contamination used indicators. Relative humidity had a statistically significant association only with one environmental contamination indicator, namely weighted average concentration, particularly with Pathologists group (p=0,02) and Technicians group (p=0,04). Risk assessment performed in the 83 studied activities showed that around two thirds (35%) were classified as (at least) high, and also noted that 70% of laboratories had at least 1 activity with high risk rating. The two environmental assessment methods application, as well information obtained from two exposure metrics, allowed to conclude that most appropriate exposure metric is ceiling concentration, because is associated with formaldehyde action mode. Moreover, an environmental method, like Method 1, which allows study formaldehyde concentrations and relates them with activity, provides relevant information for preventive information, since identifies the activity with higher exposure, as well variables that promote exposure. Anatomic pieces represent formaldehyde contamination main source in this occupational setting, and this is of particular interest because all activities are focused on anatomic pieces processing. Since there is no prospect, in short term, for formaldehyde use elimination due to large number of activities that still involve solution use, it can be concluded that exposure to this agent, in this particular occupational setting, is preoccupant, requiring an rapid intervention in order to minimize exposure and prevent potential health effects in exposed workers.

The adoption of cloud computing by SMEs: identifying and coping with external factors.

Comunicação apresentada na CAPSI 2011 - 11ª Conferência da Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação – A Gestão de Informação na era da Cloud Computing, Lisboa, ISEG/IUL-ISCTE/, 19 a 21 de Outubro de 2011.

Integration of sediment contamination with multi–biomarker responses in a novel bioindicator candidate (Sepia officinalis) for risk assessment in impacted estuaries

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Studying the impact of co-authorship with external researchers:the case of research community in Portugal using social network analysis.

Project work presented as a partial requirement to obtain a Master Degree in Information Management

Was ageing a cause for the increase in hospitalization costs, in the Portuguese public hospitals, between 1994 and 2010?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on external imbalances within the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The new mobility paradigm: transformation of value chain and business models

We would like to thank Philipp Schwarz and Julia Gückel for their dedicated support in preparing this paper and our colleagues and students of the School of Engineering and the Business School for our fruitful discussions.

External brand extensions impact on Diesel's brand image

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

In-School CSR and its impact on brand image, brand identification and brand reputation: The moderator effect of brand familiarity, product involvement and cause-brand fit

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Corporate social responsibility: How internal and external CSR perceptions influence employee outcomes

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Do the psychological impacts of war cause poverty?: Evidence from Mozambique

This paper evaluates the extent to which war-related psychological distress causes poverty. The endogeneous nature of mental distress is addressed by using exposure to the civil war in Mozambique as an instrument. It is found that exposure to war has a significant and positive long-lasting impact on mental distress. Furthermore, the causal impact of war-related psychological distress on income and wealth is shown to be significant, negative, and nonnegligible. One standard deviation increase in mental distress decreases income by half a standard deviation. These findings are robust to alternative specifications, including the use of an alternative database on the incidence of PTSD in Mozambique.