36 resultados para Exponential smoothing
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In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.
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H3 is a fast-food chain that introduced the concept of gourmet hamburgers in the Portuguese market. This case-study illustrates its financing strategy that supported an exponential growth represented by opening 33 restaurants within approximately 3 years of its inception. H3 is now faced with the challenge of structuring its foreign ventures and change its financial approach. The main covered topics are the options an entrepreneur has for financing a new venture and how it evolves along the life cycle and different business approaches, namely franchising. It aims to be used as a learning tool in courses such as entrepreneurial finance.
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A brief introduction to the fractional continuous-time linear systems is presented. It will be done without needing a deep study of the fractional derivatives. We will show that the computation of the impulse and step responses is very similar to the classic. The main difference lies in the substitution of the exponential by the Mittag-Leffler function. We will present also the main formulae defining the fractional derivatives.
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IEEE CIRCUITS AND SYSTEMS MAGAZINE, Third Quarter
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Thesis for the Degree of Master of Science in Biotechnology Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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Journal of Bacteriology (Nov 2007) 8371-8376
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Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Abstract Background: Nanotechnology has the potential to provide agriculture with new tools that may be used in the rapid detection and molecular treatment of diseases and enhancement of plant ability to absorb nutrients, among others. Data on nanoparticle toxicity in plants is largely heterogeneous with a diversity of physicochemical parameters reported, which difficult generalizations. Here a cell biology approach was used to evaluate the impact of Quantum Dots (QDs) nanocrystals on plant cells, including their effect on cell growth, cell viability, oxidative stress and ROS accumulation, besides their cytomobility. Results: A plant cell suspension culture of Medicago sativa was settled for the assessment of the impact of the addition of mercaptopropanoic acid coated CdSe/ZnS QDs. Cell growth was significantly reduced when 100 mM of mercaptopropanoic acid -QDs was added during the exponential growth phase, with less than 50% of the cells viable 72 hours after mercaptopropanoic acid -QDs addition. They were up taken by Medicago sativa cells and accumulated in the cytoplasm and nucleus as revealed by optical thin confocal imaging. As part of the cellular response to internalization, Medicago sativa cells were found to increase the production of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) in a dose and time dependent manner. Using the fluorescent dye H2DCFDA it was observable that mercaptopropanoic acid-QDs concentrations between 5-180 nM led to a progressive and linear increase of ROS accumulation. Conclusions: Our results showed that the extent of mercaptopropanoic acid coated CdSe/ZnS QDs cytotoxicity in plant cells is dependent upon a number of factors including QDs properties, dose and the environmental conditions of administration and that, for Medicago sativa cells, a safe range of 1-5 nM should not be exceeded for biological applications.
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RESUMO - Assiste-se a um crescimento exponencial das despesas em saúde, quer na Europa como nos Estados Unidos. Em Portugal, os gastos totais com a saúde ascenderam a 10,2% do PIB, em 2006, contra os 8,8% registados no início da década anterior. É importante perceber o que motiva este crescimento quer em termos globais, quer no que diz respeito ao consumo de recursos, bem como até em termos da despesa pública. Este projecto tem dois objectivos fundamentais: em primeiro lugar, contribuir para o estudo dos factores determinantes da procura de cuidados de saúde em Portugal e, consequentemente, determinar as elasticidades procura – preço para diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde. Metodologia: Estudo observacional baseado na análise empírica de dados administrativos (claims) respeitantes à utilização dos cuidados de saúde por parte de 12.230 indivíduos detentores de um plano de seguro de saúde individual, numa seguradora privada em Portugal. As elasticidades procura – preço para os diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde obtiveram-se utilizando as variações percentuais das quantidades dos diferentes cuidados de saúde, antes e depois da variação do preço pago pelo indivíduo, para cada tipo de cuidado de saúde. Resultados: De acordo com a teoria económica tradicional o aumento do preço a pagar reduz o consumo de cuidados de saúde, e a procura é elástica, ou seja, os valores da elasticidade procura – preço obtidos são superiores a 1, em valor absoluto, logo o aumento do preço levou a uma redução mais do que proporcional das quantidades procuradas. A procura de cuidados de saúde em ambulatório é mais sensível à variação do preço do que a procura de cuidados de internamento. ------- ABSTRACT - We are witnessing an exponential growth of health care expenditures around the world. In Portugal, the total expenditure on health amounted to 10.2% of GDP in 2006, against 8.8% at the beginning of previous decade. It is important to understand what motivates this growth both in overall terms, with respect to resource consumption, and even in terms of public spending. This study was designed two achieve two objectives: first, to contribute to the study of demand for health care and, more specifically, to analyze the effect of price changes on the utilization of health care services; and secondly, to estimate the demand elasticity for different types of heath care. Methodology: Observational study based on empirical analysis of administrative data (claims) from a private health insurance Company in Portugal. The sample used had information regarding 12.230 individuals. Demand elasticity for the different types of health care services was obtained by the quotient between the percentage changes in the quantity of health care services, before and after the change in the price paid by the corresponding percentage change in the price. Results: This study showed that, for all medical services, price increases were associated with reductions in the quantity of care consumed as predicted by neoclassical demand theory, and we are in the presence of an elastic demand. This means that price elasticity is greater than 1 in absolute value so the increase in the price led to a more than proportional reduction in the quantity demanded. Demand elasticity was more responsive to changes in the price of specialist and emergency care than to changes in the price of inpatient care.
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Dissertation presented to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical Engineering, speciality on Perceptional Systems, by the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculty of Sciences and Technology
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Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial Para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência.
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We present the fi rst review of Hymenoptera alien to Europe. Our study revealed that nearly 300 species of Hymenoptera belonging to 30 families have been introduced to Europe. In terms of alien species diversity within invertebrate orders, this result ranks Hymenoptera third following Coleoptera and Hemiptera. Two third of alien Hymenoptera are parasitoids or hyperparasitoids that were mostly introduced for biological control purposes. Only 35 phytophagous species, 47 predator species and 3 species of pollinators have been introduced. Six families of wasps (Aphelinidae, Encyrtidae, Eulophidae, Braconidae, Torymidae, Pteromalidae) represent together with ants (Formicidae) about 80% of the alien Hymenoptera introduced to Europe. Th e three most diverse families are Aphelinidae (60 species representing 32% of the Aphelinid European fauna), Encyrtidae (55) and Formicidae (42) while the Chalcidoidea together represents 2/3 of the total Hymenoptera species introduced to Europe. Th e fi rst two families are associated with mealybugs, a group that also included numerous aliens to Europe. In addition, they are numerous cases of Hymenoptera introduced from one part of Europe to another, especially from continental Europe to British Islands. Th ese introductions mostly concerned phytophagous or gall- maker species (76 %), less frequently parasitoids. Th e number of new records of alien Hymenoptera per year has shown an exponential increase during the last 200 years. Th e number of alien species introduced by year reached a maximum of 5 species per year between 1975 and 2000. North America provided the greatest part of the hymenopteran species alien to Europe (96 species, 35.3%), followed by Asia (84 species, 30.9%) and Africa (49 species, 18%). Th ree Mediterranean countries (only continental parts) hosted the largest number of alien Hymenoptera: Italy (144 spp.), France (111 spp.) and Spain (90 spp.) but no correlation was found with the area of countries. Intentional introduction, mostly for biological control, has been the main pathway of introduction for Hymenoptera. Consequently, the most invaded habitats are agricultural and horticultural as well as greenhouses. To the contrary, Hymenoptera alien in Europe are mostly associated with woodland and forest habitats. Ecological and economic impacts of alien Hymenoptera have been poorly studied. Ants have probably displaced native species and this is also true for introduced parasitoids that are suspected to displace native parasitoids by competition, but reliable examples are still scarce. Th e cost of these impacts has never been estimated.