While the crisis proceeds: A world redistribution of economic power?

The crisis has drawn attention to the fact that not only emerging powers but other regions of the world as well may be offering different development models and may constitute into alternative, in some dimensions more positive agents, in the conduct of the present stage of globalisation. Notwithstanding, the traditional western powers have not lost a large amount of control of the world economy. And the crisis proceeds, reallocating world power as in a Hobbesian anarchy. It is difficult to foresee smooth developments in the near future. On the contrary, multilateralism seems to be losing ground to unilateral action or bilateral arrangements. More or less disguised currency wars may lead to serious disequilibria, and turf wars may become more frequent, with motives ranging from securing captive markets to control of specific commodities and energy goods, or targeted regulatory frameworks. As economic policy becomes even more involved with defence and security affairs, the feedbacks from each side to the other seem likely to keep dissent and animosity high, rather than contributing to peaceful and constructive approaches. A more trouble-prone world may be easily expected.

A wave of change: Labor market and social security impacts of the EU refugee inflow

The recent massive inflow of refugees to the European Union (EU) raises a number of unanswered questions on the economic impact of this phenomenon. To examine these questions, we constructed an overlapping-generations model that describes the evolution of the skill premium and of the welfare benefit level in relevant European countries, in the aftermath of an inflow of asylum-seekers. In our simulation, relative wages of skilled workers increase between 8% and 11% in the period of the inflow; their subsequent time path is dependent on the initial skill premium. The entry of migrants creates a fiscal surplus of about 8%, which can finance higher welfare benefits in the subsequent periods. These effects are weaker in a scenario where refugees do not fully integrate into the labor market.

Services innovation and economic performance: An analysis at the firm

In this paper we estimate a model linking innovation effort and economic performance, along the lines of the Mairesse and Mohnen (2003) model. We examine this relationship in the context of services sectors instead of Research and Development intensive manufacturing sectors. Much effort has already been made to explore the innovation-performance relationship for manufacturing sectors but it is still much understudied for services, particularly for Portugal. In this paper we aim to take a step in fulfilling this gap. We use new firm level data for ten services sectors from the Second Community Innovation Survey of Portugal, to estimate the model.

A Logic and tool for local reasoning about security protocols

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Economic ideas and policies in nineteenth-century Portugal

Luso-Brazilian Review Vol.38 Issue 2, p1-15

A new model for EEZ surveillance and management in Portugal

Management Information Systems 2000, p. 103-111

Os custos das fracturas de etiologia osteoporótica em mulheres : institucionalização na Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados (RNCCI) e lares de 3ª idade

RESUMO - Contexto: A osteoporose é uma doença sistémica associada à diminuição da resistência óssea que condiciona o aparecimento de fracturas por traumatismos de baixa energia as quais reduzem em muitos casos a esperança e a qualidade de vida, implicando um elevado número de horas de dedicação dos cuidadores e conduzindo, em muitos casos, à necessidade de institucionalização dos doentes. Em Portugal, ocorrem cerca de 40.000 fracturas anualmente, das quais 8.500 do fémur proximal, que se estima consumirem mais de 50 milhões de euros só em cuidados hospitalares1. Objectivo: Avaliar o impacto económico da institucionalização na Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados e Lares da 3ª idade por fractura de etiologia osteoporótica em mulheres no ano 2009, em Portugal. Métodos: O estudo começa por analisar sucintamente os aspectos clínicos, sociais e epidemiológicos da osteoporose, focando a perda de autonomia e qualidade de vida dos doentes vítimas deste episódio e a subsequente necessidade de institucionalização. Descrevem-se os custos associados à institucionalização na RNCCI, em Portugal, ano 2009, utilizando como fonte principal a base de dados da instituição “Gestcare CCI”, complementada com dados da literatura. Apuram-se os custos totais associados ao encaminhamento dos doentes para Lares de 3ª Idade em Portugal no ano 2009, utilizando-se informação proveniente de um painel de Delphi modificado e dados da literatura. A valorização dos recursos tem por base os preços em vigor no território nacional, expressos nos decretos-lei devidamente referenciados. Resultados: No ano 2009 em Portugal foram empregues cerca de 2,5 milhões de euros no internamento das mulheres na RNCCI, na perspectiva da sociedade, sendo cerca de 2,2 milhões atribuíveis à osteoporose (90%). Cerca de 91% dos custos totais são alocados à fractura osteoporótica da anca (2 milhões €). Para a fractura vertebral, úmero e punho os custos foram mais baixos - 7,1%, 1,3% e 1% dos custos totais da osteoporose, respectivamente. Nos Lares de 3ª idade, estimou-se a admissão de aproximadamente 14.372 doentes com fractura osteoporótica em diferentes localizações, em 2009, Portugal, com um custo que oscilou entre os 19 e os 21,6 milhões de euros. A fractura osteoporótica da anca foi a mais incidente e a que representou custos mais elevados para a Segurança Social – entre 17,5 e 19,7 milhões de euros. Considerando como referência os 52 milhões de euros gastos em 2006 no tratamento hospitalar da fractura da anca (DGS, 2006), o encaminhamento das mulheres para a RNCCI e Lares da 3ª Idade corresponde a 42% do bolo total. Assim, os resultados nacionais enquadram-se no que se encontra descrito na literatura internacional - os custos atribuíveis à hospitalização oscilaram entre 17%50 e 63%29 da despesa total da doença e das institucionalizações entre os 16%58 e os 59%51. Conclusões: Em Portugal o impacto económico da institucionalização por fractura osteoporótica, sobretudo por fractura da anca, não é desprezável e mostra que existiriam poupanças significativas se fosse possível reduzir a prevalência da doença em Portugal. Face às alterações demográficas associadas ao envelhecimento da população, é expectável que a incidência e custos com o tratamento das fracturas do colo do fémur, mais associadas à osteoporose, venham a subir nos próximos anos, pelo que o combate à doença deve ser considerada uma prioridade nacional. A decisão pela opção por determinados programas de prevenção da doença ou da comparticipação ou não de determinada terapêutica necessita contudo de ser complementada com a medição da dimensão dos benefícios terapêuticos. --- ABSTRACT - Background: Osteoporosis is a systemic disease associated with the loss off the bone strength and it is one of the major causes of low energy fractures, which in many cases reduce life hope and quality. This happens because it has associated extensive treatments and it usually carries loss of independence, implying many hours of caregivers dedication and leading, in many cases, to the institutionalization of the patients. In Portugal, about 40,000 fractures occur annually, which 8,500 are proximal femur, and that are estimated to consume over 50 million euros only in hospital care. Objective: Evaluate the economic impact of institutionalization on the Integrated Continued Care National Network (RNCCI) and Care Homes associated to osteoporotic fractures in women, in the year 2009 in Portugal. Methods: The study begins by reviewing briefly the clinical, social, and epidemiological studies of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures, focusing on the patient autonomy loss and life quality. The total and average costs per episode associated with the institutionalization in RNCCI are described, in Portugal, year 2009, using as main data source the application "Gestcare CCI", complemented with literature data. The total costs associated with the patients referral for the Care Homes in Portugal in 2009 is also calculated, using information from a modified Delphi panel and some literature data. The resources valuation is based on prices prevailing in Portugal. Results: In 2009, women relocation in RNCCI consumed approximately 2.5 million euros, which 2.2 million are attributable to osteoporosis (90%). About 91% of the total costs are allocated to osteoporotic hip fracture (€ 2 million). For vertebral, humerus, and wrist fracture, the associated costs were lower, 7.1%, 1.3%, and 1% of total costs of osteoporosis treatment, respectively. In Care Homes, an intake of approximately 14 372 patients with osteoporotic fracture was estimated, at a cost that is between 19 and 21.6 million euros. The osteoporotic hip fracture was the most frequent and represented higher costs for Social Security - between 17.5 and 19.7 million euros. Taking as reference the 52 million spent in 2006 with hospital treatment of hip fracture (DGS, 2006), referring women to RNCCI and Care Homes represents 42% of the total costs. The results are in accordance with the international literature - costs attributable to hospitalization ranged between 17% and 63% of total expenditure of illness and institutionalization between 16% and 59%. Conclusions: In Portugal, the economic impact of institutionalization for osteoporotic fracture, particularly for hip fracture, is not negligible. It was shown that there would be significant savings if it were possible to reduce the prevalence of the disease in Portugal. Femoral fractures were the second most frequent diagnosis in RNCCI in 2008 and 2009 (16% of all episodes recorded). The execution of RNCCI in 2008 was 75 million euros, and 2.7% consumed by hip fracture and 0.3% by wrist, humerus, and spine fractures. The average cost per episode in 2009, from the perspective of society, for hip fracture, vertebral, humerus, and wrist (or non-osteoporotic) was € 5,195, € 5,160, € 5,030, and € 4,854 respectively. Thus, considering an average cost per episode in RNCCI from January to March of 3230€, the expense related to the treatment of these patients in RNCCI in 2009 was higher. For the Care Homes, an intake of approximately 14 372 patients with osteoporotic fracture in 2009 was estimated, at a cost to Social Security that ranged from 19 to 21.6 million €. The osteoporotic hip fracture was the most frequent and it was shown to absorve higher resources from Social Security - between 17.5 and 19.7 million €. This was followed by the analysis of vertebral and humerus fracture and the results showed that these fractures have a low incidence and low proportion of institutionalization, with a significantly lower cost - only about 4.7% and 3.3% of total expenditure, respectively. With demographic changes associated to ageing, it is expected that the incidence and treatment cost of the femoral neck fractures, more commonly associated with osteoporosis, will climb in coming years, so the fight against the disease should be considered a national priority. The decision to choose a certain disease prevention program or to reimburse a certain drug not should only account about the costs, but also the benefits of it. In fact, the size and impact of this problem, makes it necessary to focus all interventions in the prevention of these episodes either by using an appropriate therapy, either through real programs for disease prevention. Once the problem is installed, we must measure the health gains associated with the patient institutionalization by conducting additional research.

An assessment of the social and economic cohesion aspects of the development of the information society in Europe

Neste trabalho pretende consolidar-se a contribuição portuguesa para o estudo comunitário “Na Assessment of the Social and Economic Cohesion Aspects of the Development of the Information Society in Europe” elaborado por um consórcio europeu liderado pela Nexus Europe e em que intervém o ISEGI- Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação, da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, como parceiro nacional português.

Promoção da saúde mental em espaço urbano

RESUMO: A saúde pública deve estar atenta aos contextos e às mudanças sociais, políticas, económicas, científicas e tecnológicas com que se confrontam constantemente as comunidades, particularmente em situações de grandes transformações como o momento que a União Europeia atravessa. A urbanização é provavelmente a mudança demográfica mais importante das últimas décadas. Tendo importantes repercussões sobre a saúde mental, é importante desenvolver a investigação neste domínio, de forma multidisciplinar e integrando a compreensão dos diferentes determinantes sociais, psicológicos e físicos. As políticas de saúde mental tornaram-se uma parte importante da política social e da sociedade de bem-estar, em particular se considerarmos a urbanização das nossas comunidades. Considerar a saúde mental em espaço urbano é fundamentalmente estudar como um espaço particular pode influenciar a saúde. Baseado nesta reflexão, desenvolveu-se uma investigação participada de base comunitária, com recurso a uma metodologia de estudo de caso. Recorreu-se a dezenas de documentos de referência local, registos em arquivo, à observação direta, à observação participante e à observação in loco do espaço urbano. Foi utilizada uma amostragem em bola de neve, estratificada, para selecionar 697 habitantes de uma cidade da área metropolitana de Lisboa. Estes habitantes foram entrevistados por 42 entrevistadores, previamente formados, assim como foram enviados questionários online dirigidos aos professores (196) e aos Técnicos Superiores de Serviço Social (12) em exercício no espaço urbano em estudo, para a caraterização sociodemográfica e para avaliação de indicadores de saúde, de indicadores relacionados com a saúde e de indicadores estruturais de saúde mental. Os resultados mostraram um espaço urbano promotor de saúde estrutura-se para capacitar os seus cidadãos a se integrarem ativamente no funcionamento da sua comunidade. Foram identificadas algumas caraterísticas como 1) o início do processo de promoção da saúde mental ser o mais precoce possível; 2) a participação comunitária ativa, num sentimento de segurança individual e comunitária, envolvendo estruturas governamentais e não-governamentais; 3) a solidariedade e a inclusão, promovendo o voluntariado e a promoção do suporte social e desenvolvendo a coesão social; 4) o reconhecimento das necessidades expressas pelos habitantes; 5) a identificação de respostas para a conciliação entre vida pessoal, familiar e profissional; 6) as estruturas de acompanhamento dos grupos sociais mais desfavorecidos; 7) as estratégias de combate ao isolamento envolvendo a população sénior e outros grupos minoritários ativamente no processo de reorganização do seu funcionamento social; 8) uma efetiva governança e gestão relacional por parte dos poderes locais, centrando a vida quotidiana da comunidade nas pessoas. A investigação participada de base comunitária constitui um instrumento útil e eficaz no desenho de planos locais de promoção da saúde mental para encontrar respostas ao desafio em saúde pública: a saúde mental e a urbanização.

The African studies course of the Instituto de Estudos Superiores Militares. An analysis of the correlations and conflictive character inside the triangle - Development, environment and security - in Africa’s Nigeria

Relatório de Estágio de Mestrado em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais Globalização e Ambiente

Impact of social economic indicators on RSI incidence and success

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Economic rents, institutions and growth: International aid and natural resources: A comparative analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

(Re)Financing in a capital intensive industry during economic crises

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics