Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Drivers of participation in collaborative consumption ventures

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The consumption of media contents through mobile devices in Finland

O campo dos media na Finlândia encontra-se num processo de mudanças aparentemente imparáveis, com os dispositivos móveis, tal como os smartphones e tablets, a influenciarem cada vez mais os padrões de produção e consumo de media. Nesta dissertação é defendido que esta situação é influenciada por factores históricos, sociais e culturais: desde os livros e jornais como meio de manter a língua finlandesa até aos benefícios da Segurança Social que permitiram que até as pessoas com menos rendimentos comprassem o jornal para se manterem a par dos desenvolvimentos do país, bem como a grande tradição de leitura que é associada aos finlandeses, assim como as condições que ao longo da história fazem fizeram com que os finlandeses sejam fascinados pelas novas tecnologias. Adicionalmente, presto especial atenção às estratégias que são adoptadas pelas cada vez mais convergentes companhias de media para enfrentarem a competição de elementos como os social media.

How to optimize Lipton’s business model in order to stimulate tea consumption in Portugal and increase Lipton Leaf tea market share?: The importance of distribution and sales channels management in a B2B2C market

Field Lab Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

Ethical consumption (in)decisons

Consumers’ indecisions about the ethical value of their choices are amongst the highest concerns regarding ethical products’ purchasing. This is especially true for Fair Trade certified products where the ethical attribute information provided by the packaging is often unacknowledged by consumers. While well-informed consumers are likely to generate positive consumer reactions to ethical products and increase its ethical consumption, less knowledgeable buyers show different purchasing patterns. In such circumstances, decisions are often driven by socio-cultural beliefs about the low functional performance of ethical or sustainable attributes. For instance, products more congruent with sustainability (e.g., produce) are considered to be simpler but less tasty than less sustainable products. Less sustainable products instead, are considered to be more sophisticated and to provide consumers with more hedonic pleasures (e.g., chocolate mousse). The extent that ethicality is linked with experiences that provide consumers with more pain than pleasure is also manifested in pro-social social behaviors. More specifically through conspicuous self-sacrificial consumption experiences like running for charity in marathons with wide public exposure. The willingness of consumers to engage in such costly initiatives is moderated by gender differences and further, mediated by the chronic productivity orientation of some individuals to use time in a productive manner. Using experimental design studies, I show that consumers (1) use a set of affective and cognitive associations with on-package elements to interpret ethical attributes, (2) implicitly associate ethicality with simplicity, and that (3) men versus women show different preferences in their forms of contribution to pro-social causes.

Measuring the effects of price movements on private consumption

This paper studies how shocks in the prices of Food, Energy and Financial Assets affect private consumption using a VAR Model. Then, the total effects are broken into direct and indirect effects, using the coefficients taken from the previous model. We use quarterly data for the Portuguese economy from the last 20 years. We found that energy prices and financial assets have a strong connection with consumption, suggesting that the economy may be too exposed to shocks in these markets.

The consumption of beauty products on famale young adults in Portugal. Recommenrations for the brand Lancôme to improve its store trafic

This project aims to explore the Portuguese Beauty and Cosmetics market, and to discuss the usage and purchase behaviour of young female adults, between 18 and 26 years old. After a market analysis based on secondary data, it evaluates the results of qualitative and quantitative research based on 9 interviews and 126 online questionnaires to explore the consumers’ reasoning when choosing products from this category – fragrances, skin care or make-up – as well as their attitude towards brands, with a special focus on the premium cosmetics brand Lancôme. Contrary to our expectations there was no statistically significant positive influence of the online touchpoints within this age segment’s purchase intention. However, results indicate that Lancôme is already being perceived by some as young and modern, but is still suffering the threat of Mass Market brands that are valued by this target, mainly due to a price sensitivity towards premium beauty brands.

Community indentification in peer-t-peer collaborative consumption services

Even though collaborative consumption (CC) is gaining economic importance, research in CC is still in its infancy. Consumers’ reasons for participating have already been investigated but little research on consequences of participation has been conducted. This article examines whether interactions between customers in peer-to-peer CC services influence the willingness to coproduce service outcomes. Drawing on social exchange theory, it is proposed that this effect is mediated by consumers’ identification with the brand community. Furthermore, continuance intention in CC is introduced as a second stage moderator. In a cross-sectional study, customers of peer-to-peer accommodation sharing are surveyed. While customer-to-customer interactions were found to have a positive effect on brand community identification, brand community identification did not positively affect co-production intention. Surprisingly, the effect of brand community identification on co-production intention was negative. Moreover, continuance intention of customers did not moderate this relationship. Bearing in mind current challenges for researchers and companies, theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.