Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Determinants of Portuguese external imbalances

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on external imbalances within the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Effects of a monetary union on a small peripheral country: Stabilization and competitiveness in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

Current mortars in conservation: an overview

Renders are an important item in historical buildings and the need for their periodical re-application is a basic conservation procedure. In modern times there has been a trend towards the replacement of traditional pure lime mortars by new formulations including Portland cement or hydraulic lime. Apart from those interventions on specific and very important monuments, in which the use oftraditional non-hydraulic mortars can be enforced, in most of the projects involving less than first order magnitude heritage the use of some sort of hydraulic components is becoming the rule rather than the exception. The present paper describes and analyses the results of an experimental study with ten formulations of current mortars - including some that can hardly be considered as adequate conservation procedures - allowing a direct comparison in terms of some of the most relevant characteristics.

Future gender relations in global restructuring processes case study evidence from knowledge-intensive, manufacturing and service occupations

Global restructuring processes have not only strong implications for European working and living realities, but also have specific outcomes with regard to gender relations. The following contribution analyses in which way global restructuring shapes current gender relations in order to identify important trends and developments for future gender (in)equalities at the workplace. On the basis of a large qualitative study on global restructuring and impacts on different occupational groups it argues that occupational belonging in line with skill and qualification levels are crucial factors to assess the further development of gender relations at work. Whereas global restructuring in knowledge-based occupations may provide new opportunities for female employees, current restructuring is going to deteriorate female labour participation in service occupations. In contrast, manufacturing occupations can be characterised by persistent gender relations, which do not change in spite of major restructuring processes at the work place. Taking the institutional perspective into account, it seems to be crucial to integrate the occupational perspective in order to apply adequate policy regulations to prevent the reinforcement of gender related working patterns in the near future.

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Is ambient intelligence a truly human-centric paradigm in industry? Current research and application scenario

Based on the paper presented at the International Conference “Autonomous Systems: inter-relations of technical and societal issues”, organized by IET with the support of the Portuguese-German collaboration project on “Technology Assessment of Autonomous Robotics” (DAAD/CRUP) at FCT-UNL, Biblioteca da UNL, Campus de Caparica on 5-6 November 2009.

Digitally programmable delay-locked-loop with adaptive charge pump current for UWB radar system

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Transformation of Medicago truncatula with the arginine decarboxylase gene to modify polyamine metabolism toward water deficit resistance

Dissertation submitted to obtain a Ph.D. (Doutoramento) degree in Biology at the Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Gestão dos custos dos acidentes de trabalho em meio hospitalar

RESUMO - No contexto económico actual, os custos pelos acidentes devem ser tidos em conta por todos os gestores das organizações, com especial destaque ao sector da saúde. Assim a análise económica deste estudo visa alertar para o impacto económico dos acidentes de trabalho em contexto hospitalar e sensibilizar os gestores para a análise do custo-beneficio da prevenção. Existem custos facilmente constatáveis, tais como, o tempo perdido no dia do acidente, quer pelo sinistrado quer pelos colegas de trabalho que o assistem, as despesas de uma ida ao serviço de urgência, a paragem da produção, a formação de mão-de-obra alternativa, a substituição dos trabalhadores, o pagamento de horas extras, o restabelecimento dos trabalhadores, os salários pagos aos trabalhadores sinistrados, as despesas administrativas e o aumento do prémio do seguro, entre outros. Existem outros custos que não são tão evidentes e por conseguinte, dificilmente quantificáveis, como é o caso da deterioração da imagem da empresa e o impacto sentimental que estes provocam nos colegas de trabalho que se traduz em quebras de produtividade. A análise económica foi realizada tendo em conta a definição de várias variáveis, de várias rubricas de custos pertencentes ao mesmo domínio. Neste projecto pretende-se analisar o custo global da sinistralidade segundo três ópticas distintas. A óptica da variabilidade, da imputabilidade e da responsabilidade, de forma a ser possível obter o custo marginal devido à ocorrência de um novo acidente, o montante de custos assumidos pelas empresas e os custos unitários segundo a natureza e a localização da lesão. ---------- ABSTRACT - In the current economic context, the costs originated by labour accidents must be taken in account by all the managers of the organisations, in this case, especially by the health sector. Thus, the economic analysis of this study case aims, to alert for the economic impact of the industrial accidents and motivate the managers for the analysis of the cost-benefit for prevention. There are kinds of costs easily quantified such as, the lost time in the day of the accident, expenses in the urgencies service, production interruption, workforce formation, workers’ substitution, extra work payment, employers’ healing, wages paid to injured workers’, administrative expenses and a biggest insurers’’ prime, among other things. The economic analysis of the labour injuries, was developed taking in account the definition of some variables, of some cost categories which belong to same domain. In this project we pretend to analyse the global cost labour injuries according to three distinct optics: variability, imputability and responsibility. Thus, it became possible to get the cost due to an occurrence of a new accident, the unitary sum of costs assumed by the companies and costs according to nature and the localisation of the injury.

Cochineal, a precious source of red: cochineal dyes characterization by high performance liquid chromatography with diode array detection and principal component analysis

Presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologias, Universidade de Lisboa, to obtain the Master Degree in Conservation and Restoration of Textiles

Caracterização e Impacte das quedas de doentes, como indicador de qualidade, num hospital E.P.E.

RESUMO - Introdução: As quedas dos doentes são um dos principais eventos adversos que podem ocorrer em contexto hospitalar, levando por um lado, ao aumento de encargos económicos e sociais, e por outro a consequências físicas e psicológicas nos doentes e respectiva família. Para a sua prevenção, é necessário investir na segurança do doente através de uma avaliação e consequente gestão do risco de quedas. Este trabalho insere-se na estratégia de melhorar a segurança do doente e a qualidade dos cuidados prestados. Objectivos: Avaliar em que medida o formulário existente responde às actuais necessidades de gestão do risco de quedas e suas consequências. Por outro lado, com base numa extensa revisão da literatura nacional e internacional, e tendo em conta as dinâmicas de qualidade e segurança do doente que têm sido criadas no hospital em estudo, propor um formulário mais eficaz que permita responder aos desafios que se colocam nos dias de hoje. Metodologia: Tratou-se de um estudo descritivo exploratório assente no paradigma quantitativo. A população do estudo foi constituída por 98 doentes que sofreram quedas durante o internamento no ano de 2010, num hospital E.P.E. (Entidade Pública Empresarial) Conclusão: As quedas ocorreram mais frequentemente em indivíduos do sexo masculino com doenças cérebro-vasculares e infecciosas, sendo que na maioria das vezes não resultaram em consequências graves. O formulário que aqui se recomenda tem a vantagem de ser informatizado e caracterizar aspectos relacionados com os custos. ---------------- ABSTRACT - Introduction: Falls of patients are one of the main adverse events that may occur in a hospital context, leading on the one hand, to an increase of economic and social burden, and, on the other hand, physical and psychological consequences for patients and their families. For its prevention, we need to invest in patient safety through an assessment and consequent management of the fall risk. This work is inserted in the strategy to improve the Patient safety and the quality of health care. Objectives: To assess the extent to which the form responds to current needs of managing the fall risk and their consequences. On the other hand, on the basis of an extensive review of national and international literature, and taking into account the dynamics of quality and safety of the patient that are created at the hospital in study, to propose a form more efficient in order to respond to the challenges that we face nowadays. Methodology: It was an exploratory descriptive study based on the quantitative paradigm. The population study was constituted by 98 patients who had suffered falls during hospitalization in the year 2010, in a hospital E.P.E. Conclusion: Falling occurred more frequently in male individuals with cerebral-vascular and infectious diseases, and in most of the time, falls have not resulted in serious consequences. The form recommended here has the advantage of being computerized and characterize aspects related with costs.