Technological adoption in health care - The role of payment systems

This paper examines the incentive to adopt a new technology given by some popular reimbursement systems, namely cost reimbursement and DRG reimbursement. Adoption is based on a cost-benefit criterion. We find that retrospective payment systems require a large enough patient benefit to yield adoption, while under DRG, adoption may arise in the absence of patients benefits when the differential reimbursement for the old vs. new technology is large enough. Also, cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption under some conditions on the differential reimbursement levels and patient benefits. In policy terms, cost reimbursement system may be more effective than a DRG payment system. This gives a new dimension to the discussion of prospective vs. retrospective payment systems of the last decades centered on the debate of quality vs. cost containment.

Mapping Mediterranean Portugal: Pastoral and Counter-pastoral

This article focuses on the different images of Mediterranean Portugal developed by three important Portuguese social scientists of the 20th century: the geographer Orlando Ribeiro, the ethnologist Jorge Dias and the social anthropologist José Cutileiro. The article argues that these different images stem from different ideological attitudes towards the countryside, ranging from pastoral to counter-pastoral, and are also related to different ways of addressing the links between the countryside and national identity.

Mobile payment

Este estudo visa perceber quais os principais determinantes da adopção e recomendação da tecnologia de pagamentos móveis. Para atingir este objectivo, foi desenvolvido um modelo de pesquisa que combinou os modelos de adopção unified theory of acceptance and use of technology 2 (UTAUT2) e diffusions on innovations (DOI), juntamente com a variável perceived technology security (PTS). Foi realizado um questionário online, tendo sido obtidas 301 respostas válidas. Os dados recolhidos foram analisados utilizando a técnica de structured equation modeling (SEM), de forma a testar empiricamente o modelo e pesquisa. As principais conclusões retiradas são que os principais factores, com efeitos directos e indirectos, para a adopção e recomendação da tecnologia de pagamentos móveis são compatibility, perceived technology security, performance expectations, innovativeness e social influence. As conclusões deste estudo fornecem informações úteis às partes interessadas na tecnologia de pagamentos móveis.

The patent expiry as a major inflection point in a branded Rx drug's life and strategies to counter generic competition - exemplified at Pfizer's blockbuster drug Lipitor in the USA

A large number of expensive, but highly profitable branded prescription drugs will go off-patent in the USA between 2011 and 2015. Their revenues are crucial to fund the immense costs associated with the development of an innovative drug. The rising cost pressure on pharmaceutical stakeholders has increased the demand for more affordable medications, as provided by the branded drug's generic counterpart. Yet, research based incumbents are moving beyond the traditional late lifecycle strategies and deploy more aggressive tactics in order to protect their brands, as seen with Pfizer's Lipitor!. It is doubtful, whether these efforts will help the blockbuster business model to resist current market conditions.

On the pricing of bivariate options in the presence of a discrete dividend payment

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master's Double Degree in Finance from the NOVA School of Business and Economics / Masters Degree in Economics from Insper

Actividade ígnea pós-paleozóica no continente português (elementos para uma síntese crítica)

The Author presents a synopsis about the post-Paleozoic igneous activity in continental Portugal. Subvolcanic massifs of Sintra, Sines and Monchique and the basaltic complex of Lisbon-Mafra are interpreted. The large network of dikes and sills occuring at north of Tagus river in Lisbon- Torres Vedras region as the dikes of Algarve and also those of diapiric formation are studied and compared. Also the doleritic dikes cuting the Hesperic Massif and the Great dike of Alentejo are studied. The Author presents an attempt of petrological and geochemical correlation-among these post-Paleozoic igneous rocks. For this more than 350 chemical analysis are used in order to elaborate several diagrams and some general conclusions are derived from them. The correlation between the origin of these igneous rocks and the opening of North Atlantic and the counter-clockwise rotation of the Iberia are also tried.

Automatic learning for the classification of chemical reactions and in statistical thermodynamics

This Thesis describes the application of automatic learning methods for a) the classification of organic and metabolic reactions, and b) the mapping of Potential Energy Surfaces(PES). The classification of reactions was approached with two distinct methodologies: a representation of chemical reactions based on NMR data, and a representation of chemical reactions from the reaction equation based on the physico-chemical and topological features of chemical bonds. NMR-based classification of photochemical and enzymatic reactions. Photochemical and metabolic reactions were classified by Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (Kohonen SOMs) and Random Forests (RFs) taking as input the difference between the 1H NMR spectra of the products and the reactants. The development of such a representation can be applied in automatic analysis of changes in the 1H NMR spectrum of a mixture and their interpretation in terms of the chemical reactions taking place. Examples of possible applications are the monitoring of reaction processes, evaluation of the stability of chemicals, or even the interpretation of metabonomic data. A Kohonen SOM trained with a data set of metabolic reactions catalysed by transferases was able to correctly classify 75% of an independent test set in terms of the EC number subclass. Random Forests improved the correct predictions to 79%. With photochemical reactions classified into 7 groups, an independent test set was classified with 86-93% accuracy. The data set of photochemical reactions was also used to simulate mixtures with two reactions occurring simultaneously. Kohonen SOMs and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) were trained to classify the reactions occurring in a mixture based on the 1H NMR spectra of the products and reactants. Kohonen SOMs allowed the correct assignment of 53-63% of the mixtures (in a test set). Counter-Propagation Neural Networks (CPNNs) gave origin to similar results. The use of supervised learning techniques allowed an improvement in the results. They were improved to 77% of correct assignments when an ensemble of ten FFNNs were used and to 80% when Random Forests were used. This study was performed with NMR data simulated from the molecular structure by the SPINUS program. In the design of one test set, simulated data was combined with experimental data. The results support the proposal of linking databases of chemical reactions to experimental or simulated NMR data for automatic classification of reactions and mixtures of reactions. Genome-scale classification of enzymatic reactions from their reaction equation. The MOLMAP descriptor relies on a Kohonen SOM that defines types of bonds on the basis of their physico-chemical and topological properties. The MOLMAP descriptor of a molecule represents the types of bonds available in that molecule. The MOLMAP descriptor of a reaction is defined as the difference between the MOLMAPs of the products and the reactants, and numerically encodes the pattern of bonds that are broken, changed, and made during a chemical reaction. The automatic perception of chemical similarities between metabolic reactions is required for a variety of applications ranging from the computer validation of classification systems, genome-scale reconstruction (or comparison) of metabolic pathways, to the classification of enzymatic mechanisms. Catalytic functions of proteins are generally described by the EC numbers that are simultaneously employed as identifiers of reactions, enzymes, and enzyme genes, thus linking metabolic and genomic information. Different methods should be available to automatically compare metabolic reactions and for the automatic assignment of EC numbers to reactions still not officially classified. In this study, the genome-scale data set of enzymatic reactions available in the KEGG database was encoded by the MOLMAP descriptors, and was submitted to Kohonen SOMs to compare the resulting map with the official EC number classification, to explore the possibility of predicting EC numbers from the reaction equation, and to assess the internal consistency of the EC classification at the class level. A general agreement with the EC classification was observed, i.e. a relationship between the similarity of MOLMAPs and the similarity of EC numbers. At the same time, MOLMAPs were able to discriminate between EC sub-subclasses. EC numbers could be assigned at the class, subclass, and sub-subclass levels with accuracies up to 92%, 80%, and 70% for independent test sets. The correspondence between chemical similarity of metabolic reactions and their MOLMAP descriptors was applied to the identification of a number of reactions mapped into the same neuron but belonging to different EC classes, which demonstrated the ability of the MOLMAP/SOM approach to verify the internal consistency of classifications in databases of metabolic reactions. RFs were also used to assign the four levels of the EC hierarchy from the reaction equation. EC numbers were correctly assigned in 95%, 90%, 85% and 86% of the cases (for independent test sets) at the class, subclass, sub-subclass and full EC number level,respectively. Experiments for the classification of reactions from the main reactants and products were performed with RFs - EC numbers were assigned at the class, subclass and sub-subclass level with accuracies of 78%, 74% and 63%, respectively. In the course of the experiments with metabolic reactions we suggested that the MOLMAP / SOM concept could be extended to the representation of other levels of metabolic information such as metabolic pathways. Following the MOLMAP idea, the pattern of neurons activated by the reactions of a metabolic pathway is a representation of the reactions involved in that pathway - a descriptor of the metabolic pathway. This reasoning enabled the comparison of different pathways, the automatic classification of pathways, and a classification of organisms based on their biochemical machinery. The three levels of classification (from bonds to metabolic pathways) allowed to map and perceive chemical similarities between metabolic pathways even for pathways of different types of metabolism and pathways that do not share similarities in terms of EC numbers. Mapping of PES by neural networks (NNs). In a first series of experiments, ensembles of Feed-Forward NNs (EnsFFNNs) and Associative Neural Networks (ASNNs) were trained to reproduce PES represented by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) analytical potential function. The accuracy of the method was assessed by comparing the results of molecular dynamics simulations (thermal, structural, and dynamic properties) obtained from the NNs-PES and from the LJ function. The results indicated that for LJ-type potentials, NNs can be trained to generate accurate PES to be used in molecular simulations. EnsFFNNs and ASNNs gave better results than single FFNNs. A remarkable ability of the NNs models to interpolate between distant curves and accurately reproduce potentials to be used in molecular simulations is shown. The purpose of the first study was to systematically analyse the accuracy of different NNs. Our main motivation, however, is reflected in the next study: the mapping of multidimensional PES by NNs to simulate, by Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo, the adsorption and self-assembly of solvated organic molecules on noble-metal electrodes. Indeed, for such complex and heterogeneous systems the development of suitable analytical functions that fit quantum mechanical interaction energies is a non-trivial or even impossible task. The data consisted of energy values, from Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations, at different distances, for several molecular orientations and three electrode adsorption sites. The results indicate that NNs require a data set large enough to cover well the diversity of possible interaction sites, distances, and orientations. NNs trained with such data sets can perform equally well or even better than analytical functions. Therefore, they can be used in molecular simulations, particularly for the ethanol/Au (111) interface which is the case studied in the present Thesis. Once properly trained, the networks are able to produce, as output, any required number of energy points for accurate interpolations.

The portuguese pharmaceutial market in the near future - A time series exploration approach

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Age constraints on the late cretaceous alkaline magmatism on the West Iberian margin

Cretaceous Research 30 (2009) 575–586

Fisioterapia e reabilitação em Portugal : o financiamento como factor crítico do desempenho

RESUMO - Num contexto em que a prestação de cuidados de Fisioterapia e Reabilitação é identificada como apresentando uma desigualdade e desajustamento da oferta regional superior à dos restantes cuidados de saúde, assim como uma falta de adequação dos preços praticados, perante as condições de oferta e procura actualmente existentes, o presente trabalho tem por objectivo investigar, no domínio do Desempenho, a influência do Financiamento na definição da prestação destes cuidados, tendo como pressuposto genérico que as decisões estratégicas e a reestruturação produtiva das organizações de saúde são condicionadas pelo sistema de preços. Considera-se que o actual sistema de Financiamento/Pagamento provoca um constrangimento na qualidade da resposta destes cuidados a dois níveis: um primeiro nível, ao colocar o pagamento no âmbito dos Meios Complementares de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica (MCDTs) a contratar pelo Serviço Nacional de Saúde, com isso determinando a configuração organizativa do sistema; um segundo nível de constrangimento que incide sobre as estruturas das organizações prestadoras, pela modelação que induz, nomeadamente a nível da sua produção. Na impossibilidade de tratar as duas dimensões do problema, pela falta de indicadores de desempenho deste sector, analisou-se, relativamente ao segundo nível de constrangimento, a produção de fisioterapia de três organizações que, potencialmente, teriam o mesmo o mesmo perfil de oferta por se enquadrarem num mesmo perfil de procura. Os resultados reflectem o pressuposto genérico do trabalho e abrem espaço para colocar como futura hipótese de investigação a razão da(s) causa(s) que poderão estar subjacentes à discrepância encontrada na média de tratamentos por sessão (duas vezes e meia) na produção das duas organizações que foi possível comparar.------------------- ABSTRACT - In a context where the provision of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation care is identified as having a regional mismatch of supply and inequality above all the others health cares, and a lack of adequacy of prices in the current conditions of supply and demand, the present work has, as main purpose, to investigate, in the field of Performance, the Payment’s influence in shaping the provision of such health care. The general assumption tracking this analysis is that the strategic decisions on productive structure of health care organizations are influenced by the price systems. It is considered that the current Finance / Payment system causes two levels of constraints on the quality of such health care: a first constraint, as it putts its payment under the Supplementary Means of Diagnosis and Therapy (MCDTs), witch ends up establishing the organizational setup of the system; a second level of constraint by modelling the internal structure of these organizations. The lack of indicators characterizing the performance of this sector, addressed the present study to the second dimension, in witch was analysed the physical therapy production in three organizations that, potentially, would have the same profile of supply responding to similar characteristics of demand. The results reflect the above mentioned general assumption that supported the work, and leave an open space for future research, about the reason (s) that lay behind the discrepancy found between the average of treatments per session (two and a half times) in

Introdução e difusão de novas tecnologias : impacto do financiamento e do estatuto jurídico hospitalar

RESUMO - Os gastos com a saúde, em Portugal, como nos países da União Europeia e da OCDE, têm crescido a um ritmo superior ao do crescimento económico, assumindo uma importância crescente face ao PIB. Entre estes factores surge a velocidade da introdução da inovação e dos desenvolvimentos tecnológicos dos domínios do diagnóstico e da terapêutica. Uma das mais difíceis e importantes questões para as políticas de saúde é a relação entre a saúde e os gastos com a prestação de cuidados de saúde. Estudos recentes sugerem que os cuidados de saúde ocupam um papel importante na melhoria da saúde da população, e que os recentes avanços tecnológicos são custo-efectivos aceites na generalidade por cada ano de vida ganho. Este trabalho visa estudar a influência que o financiamento e o estatuto jurídico hospitalar têm na introdução e adopção de novas tecnologias em saúde. Para isso, além da revisão bibliográfica, foi realizada uma análise a uma base de dados, cujos elementos se cingem a pacientes com doenças cardiovasculares atendidos num dos hospitais do Serviço Nacional de Saúde, entre 2000 e 2006. --- ------------------------------------ABSTRACT - Health expenditures in Portugal, as in EU countries and in the OECD, have developed at a higher rate than economic growth, assuming an increasing importance to the GDP. Among these factors appears the speed of the introduction of innovation and technological development in diagnosis and therapy areas. One of the most difficult and most important questions for health policy is the relationship of health to health care spending. Studies now suggest that medical care has played an important role in improving the health of the population, and recent technical advances are cost-effective at generally accepted values of an added year of life. This work aims to study the influence that the prospective payment and the hospital’s legal status have in introduction and adoption of new technologies in health. For this, besides the literature review, an analysis was made to a database, whose elements are confined to patients with cardiovascular disease treated in the hospitals of t

Gestão dos custos dos acidentes de trabalho em meio hospitalar

RESUMO - No contexto económico actual, os custos pelos acidentes devem ser tidos em conta por todos os gestores das organizações, com especial destaque ao sector da saúde. Assim a análise económica deste estudo visa alertar para o impacto económico dos acidentes de trabalho em contexto hospitalar e sensibilizar os gestores para a análise do custo-beneficio da prevenção. Existem custos facilmente constatáveis, tais como, o tempo perdido no dia do acidente, quer pelo sinistrado quer pelos colegas de trabalho que o assistem, as despesas de uma ida ao serviço de urgência, a paragem da produção, a formação de mão-de-obra alternativa, a substituição dos trabalhadores, o pagamento de horas extras, o restabelecimento dos trabalhadores, os salários pagos aos trabalhadores sinistrados, as despesas administrativas e o aumento do prémio do seguro, entre outros. Existem outros custos que não são tão evidentes e por conseguinte, dificilmente quantificáveis, como é o caso da deterioração da imagem da empresa e o impacto sentimental que estes provocam nos colegas de trabalho que se traduz em quebras de produtividade. A análise económica foi realizada tendo em conta a definição de várias variáveis, de várias rubricas de custos pertencentes ao mesmo domínio. Neste projecto pretende-se analisar o custo global da sinistralidade segundo três ópticas distintas. A óptica da variabilidade, da imputabilidade e da responsabilidade, de forma a ser possível obter o custo marginal devido à ocorrência de um novo acidente, o montante de custos assumidos pelas empresas e os custos unitários segundo a natureza e a localização da lesão. ---------- ABSTRACT - In the current economic context, the costs originated by labour accidents must be taken in account by all the managers of the organisations, in this case, especially by the health sector. Thus, the economic analysis of this study case aims, to alert for the economic impact of the industrial accidents and motivate the managers for the analysis of the cost-benefit for prevention. There are kinds of costs easily quantified such as, the lost time in the day of the accident, expenses in the urgencies service, production interruption, workforce formation, workers’ substitution, extra work payment, employers’ healing, wages paid to injured workers’, administrative expenses and a biggest insurers’’ prime, among other things. The economic analysis of the labour injuries, was developed taking in account the definition of some variables, of some cost categories which belong to same domain. In this project we pretend to analyse the global cost labour injuries according to three distinct optics: variability, imputability and responsibility. Thus, it became possible to get the cost due to an occurrence of a new accident, the unitary sum of costs assumed by the companies and costs according to nature and the localisation of the injury.

Sustentabilidade e bem-estar humano : duas faces da mesma moeda? : estudo exploratório do bem estar subjectivo em comunidades intencionais que vivem segundo princípios de sustentabilidade

RESUMO - Nos últimos vinte anos tem-se assistido a uma crescente consciencialização de que os nossos estilos de vida são insustentáveis aos níveis económico, social e ambiental, o que tem repercussões na nossa saúde e bem-estar. Do crescimento populacional à pobreza e inequidade geradas pelo modelo de “crescimento económico” actual, à perda de biodiversidade e disrupção dos ecossistemas naturais, ao desmesurado crescimento urbano, à poluição e acumulação de desperdícios, às alterações climáticas, ao isolamento individual e à diminuição do capital social na sociedade do consumo: a necessidade de desenvolvimento sustentável e gerador de bem-estar nunca foi tão grande e evidente. Ao longo dos últimos anos têm surgido comunidades intencionais que se organizam segundo princípios de sustentabilidade, como um fenómeno de contra-cultura – as Ecoaldeias (Ecovillages). No entanto, os benefícios para a saúde e bem-estar deste tipo de comunidades não são ainda claros, sendo a experiência de investigação nesta área escassa. O estudo aqui proposto visa conhecer, a título exploratório, os níveis de bem-estar subjectivo em comunidades intencionais que vivem segundo princípios de sustentabilidade em Portugal, se estes níveis são melhores que na população em geral, e quais os factores percebidos que o influenciam. Para tal, terá componentes quantitativas e qualitativas e irá basear-se num questionário auto-administrado aos residentes das Ecoaldeias portuguesas, que inclui o Índice de Bem-estar Pessoal - uma escala de medição do Bem-estar subjectivo validada para a população portuguesa. As suas conclusões poderão contribuir para o desenvolvimento de abordagens mais elaboradas, capazes de edificar uma infra-estrutura teórica para o sistema de conceitos em foco, tão necessária quer a investigações com maior potencial explicativo, quer a decisões com melhor fundamento. ------------ ABSTRACT - Over the past twenty years there has been a growing awareness that the way we live is unsustainable at the economic, social and environmental level, which has impact in our health and wellbeing. From the population growth to poverty and inequity generated by the current model of economic growth, to biodiversity loss and disruption of natural ecosystems, to disproportionate urban growth, to pollution and waste accumulation, to climate change and the individual isolation social loss capital in the consumption society: the need for a development that is sustainable and generates wellbeing has never been greater and more evident. Over the last years intentional communities who live according to principles of sustainability have emerged, has a phenomenon of counter-culture - the ecovillages. The health and wellbeing benefits of this type of communities are not clear, as the investigation in this area is little. The aim of this exploratory study is to know the levels of subjective wellbeing of such communities, in Portugal, if these levels are different from the general population and what are the main perceived contributing factors. This study will have a qualitative and quantitative component and will be based in the application of a self-administered questionnaire that includes the Subjective Wellbeing Index, a measurement scale of subjective wellbeing, validated for the Portuguese population. Its findings may contribute to the development of more elaborate approaches that allow to build a theoretical framework for the system of concepts focused, needed both for further investigations with more explanatory potential, as for more grounded decision-making, to tackle the challenges of sustainable development.

Does a Tougher Competition Policy Reduce or Promote Investment?

The question of how interventions from the Competition Authority (CA) affect investment is not a straightforward one: a tougher competition policy might, by reducing the ability to exert market power, either stimulate firms to invest more to counter the restrictions on their actions, or make firms invest less because of the reduced ability to have a return on investment. This tension is illustrated using two models. In one model investment is own-cost-reducing whereas in the other investment is anti-competitive. Anti-competitive investments are defined as investments that increase competitors’ costs. In both models the optimal level of investment is reduced with a tougher competition policy. Furthermore, while in the case of an anti-competitive investment a tougher authority necessarily leads to lower prices, in the case of a cost- reducing investment the opposite may happen when the impact of the investment on cost is sufficiently high. Results for total welfare are ambiguous in the cost- reducing investment model, whereas in the anti-competitive investment model welfare unambiguously increases due to a tougher competition polic

O financiamento por capitação ajustada pelo risco em contexto de integração vertical de cuidados de saúde : a utilização dos consumos com medicamentos como proxy da carga de doença em ambulatório

RESUMO - Introdução - Com o presente projecto de investigação pretendeu-se estudar o financiamento por capitação ajustado pelo risco em contexto de integração vertical de cuidados de saúde, recorrendo particularmente a informação sobre o consumo de medicamentos em ambulatório como proxy da carga de doença. No nosso país, factores como a expansão de estruturas de oferta verticalmente integradas, inadequação histórica da sua forma de pagamento e a recente possibilidade de dispor de informação sobre o consumo de medicamentos de ambulatório em bases de dados informatizadas são três fortes motivos para o desenvolvimento de conhecimento associado a esta temática. Metodologia - Este trabalho compreende duas fases principais: i) a adaptação e aplicação de um modelo de consumo de medicamentos que permite estimar a carga de doença em ambulatório (designado de PRx). Nesta fase foi necessário realizar um trabalho de selecção, estruturação e classificação do modelo. A sua aplicação envolveu a utilização de bases de dados informatizadas de consumos com medicamentos nos anos de 2007 e 2008 para a região de Saúde do Alentejo; ii) na segunda fase foram simulados três modelos de financiamento alternativos que foram propostos para financiar as ULS em Portugal. Particularmente foram analisadas as dimensões e variáveis de ajustamento pelo risco (índices de mortalidade, morbilidade e custos per capita), sua ponderação relativa e consequente impacto financeiro. Resultados - Com o desenvolvimento do modelo PRx estima-se que 36% dos residentes na região Alentejo têm pelo menos uma doença crónica, sendo a capacidade de estimação do modelo no que respeita aos consumos de medicamentos na ordem dos 0,45 (R2). Este modelo revelou constituir uma alternativa a fontes de informação tradicionais como são os casos de outros estudos internacionais ou o Inquérito Nacional de Saúde. A consideração dos valores do PRx para efeitos de financiamento per capita introduz alterações face a outros modelos propostos neste âmbito. Após a análise dos montantes de financiamento entre os cenários alternativos, obtendo os modelos 1 e 2 níveis de concordância por percentil mais próximos entre si comparativamente ao modelo 3, seleccionou-se o modelo 1 como o mais adequado para a nossa realidade. Conclusão - A aplicação do modelo PRx numa região de saúde permitiu concluir em função dos resultados alcançados, que já existe a possibilidade de estruturação e operacionalização de um modelo que permite estimar a carga de doença em ambulatório a partir de informação relativa ao seu perfil de consumo de medicamentos dos utentes. A utilização desta informação para efeitos de financiamento de organizações de saúde verticalmente integradas provoca uma variação no seu actual nível de financiamento. Entendendo este estudo como um ponto de partida onde apenas uma parte da presente temática ficará definida, outras questões estruturantes do actual sistema de financiamento não deverão também ser olvidadas neste contexto. ------- ABSTRACT - Introduction - The main goal of this study was the development of a risk adjustment model for financing integrated delivery systems (IDS) in Portugal. The recent improvement of patient records, mainly at primary care level, the historical inadequacy of payment models and the increasing number of IDS were three important factors that drove us to develop new approaches for risk adjustment in our country. Methods - The work was divided in two steps: the development of a pharmacy-based model in Portugal and the proposal of a risk adjustment model for financing IDS. In the first step an expert panel was specially formed to classify more than 33.000 codes included in Portuguese pharmacy national codes into 33 chronic conditions. The study included population of Alentejo Region in Portugal (N=441.550 patients) during 2007 and 2008. Using pharmacy data extracted from three databases: prescription, private pharmacies and hospital ambulatory pharmacies we estimated a regression model including Potential Years of Life Lost, Complexity, Severity and PRx information as dependent variables to assess total cost as the independent variable. This healthcare financing model was compared with other two models proposed for IDS. Results - The more prevalent chronic conditions are cardiovascular (34%), psychiatric disorders (10%) and diabetes (10%). These results are also consistent with the National Health Survey. Apparently the model presents some limitations in identifying patients with rheumatic conditions, since it underestimates prevalence and future drug expenditure. We obtained a R2 value of 0,45, which constitutes a good value comparing with the state of the art. After testing three scenarios we propose a model for financing IDS in Portugal. Conclusion - Drug information is a good alternative to diagnosis in determining morbidity level in a population basis through ambulatory care data. This model offers potential benefits to estimate chronic conditions and future drug costs in the Portuguese healthcare system. This information could be important to resource allocation decision process, especially concerning risk adjustment and healthcare financing.