Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Technological adoption in health care - The role of payment systems

This paper examines the incentive to adopt a new technology given by some popular reimbursement systems, namely cost reimbursement and DRG reimbursement. Adoption is based on a cost-benefit criterion. We find that retrospective payment systems require a large enough patient benefit to yield adoption, while under DRG, adoption may arise in the absence of patients benefits when the differential reimbursement for the old vs. new technology is large enough. Also, cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption under some conditions on the differential reimbursement levels and patient benefits. In policy terms, cost reimbursement system may be more effective than a DRG payment system. This gives a new dimension to the discussion of prospective vs. retrospective payment systems of the last decades centered on the debate of quality vs. cost containment.

Technological adoption in health care

This paper addresses the impact of payment systems on the rate of technology adoption. We present a model where technological shift is driven by demand uncertainty, increased patients’ benefit, financial variables, and the reimbursement system to providers. Two payment systems are studied: cost reimbursement and (two variants of) DRG. According to the system considered, adoption occurs either when patients’ benefits are large enough or when the differential reimbursement across technologies offsets the cost of adoption. Cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption of the new technology if the rate of reimbursement is high relative to the margin of new vs. old technology reimbursement under DRG. Having larger patient benefits favors more adoption under the cost reimbursement payment system, provided that adoption occurs initially under both payment systems.

Cell-to cell Communication in Pectobacterium wasabiae

Dissertation presented to obtain the PhD degree in Biology

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions

Consumer behavior: Sport Zone. The analysis of "The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions" Several studies have been conducted on the consumer behavior. This study aims to analyze and understand which factors are important to consumers’ emotions when the purchase decision occurs, the brand awareness, brand loyalty and the campaigns/activations’ impact in the above factors. Two research surveys were conducted to realize this study, the first online and the other was an interview to the Agency Up Partner who conceived and put into practice this Fitness campaign. First of all, was the consumer’s survey, a survey with 100 answers, to understand which factors are taken into account when a campaign in-store is held, in which the atmosphere is mainly used to arouse consumer’s desire to purchase, and also emotions. Second, the interview with the agency was realized to find out on what they were based on when they delineate it, and if the raise of emotions was taken into account in the origin of it. Concluding, emotions have a significant impact on formation of consumer in-store behavior, satisfaction and loyalty. As we could assay through of how this Fitness campaign was carried out as well as the optimal feedback received by consumers, improved attention over in-store marketing activity strongly influences consumer behavior at the point of purchase. “Sport Zone: A new store concept where the love for sports is combined with functionality”

The importance of relationship closeness expectations in brand-page communication in social networking sites

While there is extensive research regarding the way users in social networking sites (SNSs) connect and communicate with each other, literature on consumer-brand relationships in SNSs is scarce. This paper hypothesizes and tests the impact of varying the source of communication in Facebook brand pages on key characteristics of brand equity, examining whether this impact is conditioned by relationship closeness expectations. More specifically, two experiments assess how relationship closeness expectations vary according to brand category and brand affiliation and how the use of a spokes-character as the source of communication in brand pages versus communicating institutionally affects consumer’s attitudes towards two real-world brands. To measure these variables, structured questionnaires were conducted with three groups of undergraduate students. The results suggest that the appropriateness of opting for a more “informal” source of communication in brand pages such as a spokes-character varies depending on whether this is in(congruent) with existing relationship closeness expectations. Implications for researchers, brand and social media managers are presented.

Health care marketing: the theory of planned behavior applied to patients' choise between private and public providers in the portuguese health care system.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

The patient safety journey in Portugal : challenges and opportunities from a public health perspective

ABSTRACT - Despite improvements in healthcare interventions, the incidence of adverse events and other patient safety problems constitutes a major contributor to the global burden of diseases and a concern for Public Health. In the last years there have been some successful individual and institutional efforts to approach patient safety issues in Portugal, unless such effort has been fragmented or focused on specific small areas. Long-term and global improvement has remained elusive, and most of all the improvement of patient safety in Portugal, must evaluate not only the efficacy of a change but also what was effective for implementing the change. Clearly, patient safety issues result from various combinations of individual, team, organization, system and patient factors. A systemic and integrated approach to promote patient safety must acknowledge and strive to understand the complexity of work systems and processes in health care, including the interactions between people, technology, and the environment. Safety errors cannot be productively attributed to a single human error. Our objective with this paper is to provide a brief overview of the status quo in patient safety in Portugal, highlighting key aspects that should be taken into account in the design of a strategy for improving patient safety. With these key aspects in mind, policy makers and implementers can move forward and make better decisions about which changes should be made and about the way the needed changes to improve patient safety should be implemented. The contribution of colleagues that are international leaders on healthcare quality and patient safety may also contribute to more innovative research methods needed to create the knowledge that promotes less costly successful changes.---- ---------------------- RESUMO – As questões relacionadas com a Segurança do Doente, e em particular, com a ocorrência de eventos adversos tem constituído, de há uns tempos a esta parte, uma crescente preocupação para as organizações de saúde, para os decisores políticos, para os profissionais de saúde e para os doentes/utentes e suas famílias, sendo por isso considerado um problema de Saúde Pública a que urge dar resposta. Em Portugal, nos últimos anos, têm sido desenvolvidos esforços baseados, maioritariamente, em iniciativas isoladas, para abordar os aspectos da Segurança do Doente. O facto de essas iniciativas não serem integradas numa estratégia explícita e de dimensão regional ou nacional, faz com que os resultados sejam parcelares e tenham visibilidade reduzida. Paralelamente, a melhoria da qualidade dos cuidados de saúde (a longo prazo) resultante dessas iniciativas tem sido esparsa e nem sempre a avaliação tem sido feita tendo em conta critérios de efectividade e de eficiência. A Segurança do Doente resulta da interacção de diversos factores relacionados, por um lado, com o doente e, por outro, com a prestação de cuidados que envolvem elementos de natureza individual (falhas activas) e organizacional/estrutural (falhas latentes). Devido à multifactorialidade que está na base de «problemas/falhas» na Segurança do Doente, qualquer abordagem a considerar deve ser sistémica e integrada. Simultaneamente, tais abordagens devem contemplar a compreensão da complexidade dos sistemas e dos processos de prestação de cuidados de saúde e as suas interdependências (envolvendo aspectos individuais, tecnológicos e ambientais). O presente trabalho tem por objectivo reflectir sobre o «estado da arte» da Segurança do Doente em Portugal, destacando os elementos-chave que se consideram decisivos para uma estratégia de acção nesse domínio. Com esses elementos os responsáveis pela governação da saúde poderão valorizar os aspectos que consideram decisivos para uma política de Segurança do Doente mais eficaz. A contribuição de quatro colegas internacionalmente reconhecidos como líderes na área da Qualidade em Saúde e da Segurança do Doente, constitui, por certo, uma oportunidade ímpar para a identificação e discussão de alguns dos principais desafios, ameaças e oportunidades que s

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Using an LED as a sensor and visible light communication device in a smart illumination system

The need for more efficient illumination systems has led to the proliferation of Solid-State Lighting (SSL) systems, which offer optimized power consumption. SSL systems are comprised of LED devices which are intrinsically fast devices and permit very fast light modulation. This, along with the congestion of the radio frequency spectrum has paved the path for the emergence of Visible Light Communication (VLC) systems. VLC uses free space to convey information by using light modulation. Notwithstanding, as VLC systems proliferate and cost competitiveness ensues, there are two important aspects to be considered. State-of-the-art VLC implementations use power demanding PAs, and thus it is important to investigate if regular, existent Switched-Mode Power Supply (SMPS) circuits can be adapted for VLC use. A 28 W buck regulator was implemented using a off-the-shelf LED Driver integrated circuit, using both series and parallel dimming techniques. Results show that optical clock frequencies up to 500 kHz are achievable without any major modification besides adequate component sizing. The use of an LED as a sensor was investigated, in a short-range, low-data-rate perspective. Results show successful communication in an LED-to-LED configuration, with enhanced range when using LED strings as sensors. Besides, LEDs present spectral selective sensitivity, which makes them good contenders for a multi-colour LED-to-LED system, such as in the use of RGB displays and lamps. Ultimately, the present work shows evidence that LEDs can be used as a dual-purpose device, enabling not only illumination, but also bi-directional data communication.