Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

The implications of mandatory low-cost fuel provision

This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.

The Gap Between Knowledge and Action: Obstacles, Restraints and Deficits During the Execution of Refurbishments

This article outlines the initial draft of a PhD project which investigates refurbishment or rehabilitation projects in two German cities. The study focuses on obstacles, restraints and deficits as well as factors of success, which can be identified during the execution of the refurbishments. Moreover the study examines the process of the refurbishment itself, the general conditions under which the refurbishments are being executed as well as the implementation of sustainability criteria. First the article gives a short summary of the theoretical considerations of the study. In this respect it shortly outlines the global conditions of urban development and conducting challenges for cities in the 21st century, guiding principles of a sustainable urban development as well as goals of sustainable refurbishments. Finally the article shortly describes the case studies and presents the initial results of the empirical work.

The quest for a balanced manpower capacity: different flexibility strategies examined

To cope with permanent fluctuations in demand, organizations are challenged to organize their manpower capacity in a flexible way. Different strategies of manpower planning are being used for this purpose. Using data from the 2002 Panel Survey of Organisations Flanders, we first verify to what extent temporal, contractual and functional flexibility strategies are applied in Flemish organizations. Subsequently, logistic regression is used to analyse the link between these flexible work strategies and a ‘fitting manpower capacity’. While the results show a negative association between the use of temporal or contractual flexibility measures and a balanced manpower capacity, functional flexibility seems to be positively related. The different logics in which numerical and functional flexibility proceed can be labeled as ‘curative’ versus ‘preventive’ strategies of flexibility. Further analyses discern between various interpretations of functional flexibility and assess whether different team types make a contribution to a fitting manpower capacity.

Innovation through virtual communities of practice: motivations and constraints in the knowledge-creation process

This paper appears in International Journal of Projectics. Vol 4(1), pp. 39-49

Age constraints on the late cretaceous alkaline magmatism on the West Iberian margin

Cretaceous Research 30 (2009) 575–586

Multiple sequence alignment correction using constraints

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do European Master in Computational Logics, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Computational Logics

Database repairs with answer set programming

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Modeling assembly program with constraints. A contribution to WCET problem

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Lógica Computacional

GIS capacity building for risk management to help developing countries:Case of climate change problem in Amhara rural region (Ethiopia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Principal component analysis of the yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Fitting the yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The determinants of SMEs capital structure: Overcoming supply constraints

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Labor adjustment dynamics: An application of system GMM

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics