Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Aborto recorrente das causas na mulher às consequências para o casal

RESUMO: O aborto recorrente (AR) é um evento extremamente traumático com grande impacto na vida dos casais. Apesar de avanços significativos verificados na investigação médica, cerca de 50% dos casos continua sem uma causa identificada. Alguns aspectos como a caracterização inadequada das doentes e das perdas gestacionais, assim como diferentes metodologias utilizadas no seu estudo, têm influenciado a prevalência de alguns dos factores causais e dificultado a compreensão do AR. Da mesma forma, pouco se sabe sobre as diferenças de género na vivência psicológica do aborto recorrente e das suas eventuais repercussões para o relacionamento do casal, centrando-se os poucos estudos existentes preferencialmente na mulher. Por esta razão, o objectivo desta tese foi a caracterização dos factores médicos associados ao AR e das consequências psicológicas desta entidade, contribuindo para promover estratégias clínicas baseadas na evidência específica. Na primeira parte desta tese (capítulos 1 e 2), após uma breve introdução geral e através de uma revisão da literatura, efectua-se uma reflexão sobre o tema, abordando a epidemiologia do aborto recorrente, os factores médicos e os aspectos psicológicos associados. Nos capítulos 3 e 4 descrevemos três estudos efectuados em mulheres portuguesas com aborto recorrente. O primeiro estudo teve por objectivo caracterizar os factores médicos e determinar o padrão da perda recorrente de gravidez, numa coorte de mulheres submetidas a um protocolo de diagnóstico definido. As participantes foram agrupadas de acordo com a paridade (AR primário ou secundário) e a idade gestacional das perdas (embrionárias ou fetais). As anomalias da cavidade uterina, a SAAF e as translocações equilibradas parentais foram os factores mais prevalentes. 15,6% das participantes eram obesas. Em 55,5% dos casos não foi identificado nenhum factor. A história obstétrica materna influenciou significativamente os resultados encontrados: os factores anatómicos e a SAAF foram mais prevalentes em nulíparas e as perdas inexplicadas foram mais frequentes em mulheres com AR secundário. Assim, os nossos dados reforçam os resultados de pesquisas anteriores sobre a importância da obesidade, da síndrome de anticorpos antifosfolípidos e das anomalias uterinas estruturais como factores associados ao AR e mostram que os a paridade é um moderador da importância desses factores. Capítulo 6 94 A ausência de resultados consensuais na literatura sobre a etiologia do AR condiciona a pesquisa sistemática de alguns factores, envolvendo exames dispendiosos, muitas vezes sem que exista evidência que suporte a sua associação com esta entidade. A trombofilia hereditária é uma das condições frequentemente investigadas nestas doentes. O nosso segundo estudo pretende contribuir para clarificar o papel de duas mutações (factor V Leiden e protrombina G20210A) na perda recorrente de gravidez e esclarecer a necessidade do seu rastreio nestas situações. Foi efectuada a pesquisa destes polimorfismos em 100 mulheres com AR inexplicado e num grupo de controlo de multíparas sem história de perdas de gravidez. Na nossa amostra não se verificou uma associação entre perdas embrionárias recorrentes e estas mutações. Nas mulheres com este tipo de perdas, a prevalência do FLV foi inclusive menor do que a verificada nos controlos. Pelo contrário, nas participantes com perdas fetais a prevalência destes polimorfismos foi muito superior à verificada nos controlos, sugerindo uma possível associação entre estas duas entidades. A pequena dimensão deste último subgrupo de mulheres, não nos permitiu contudo tirar conclusões. Uma investigação prospectiva multicêntrica é necessária antes de recomendar a pesquisa da trombofilia hereditária na investigação do AR. Procurámos incluir também nesta tese uma dimensão psicológica e contribuir assim para o conhecimento dos processos relacionais originados pelo AR. No terceiro estudo foram investigadas as diferenças de género na vivência do AR e o seu impacto no relacionamento e sexualidade do casal. Participaram neste estudo 30 casais sem filhos, com pelo menos 3 abortos espontâneos consecutivos. Cada membro do casal respondeu a um conjunto de questionários (Impact of Events Scale, Perinatal Grief Scale, Partnership Questionnaire e Intimate Relationship Scale). Os resultados mostram que as mulheres sofrem mais intensamente do que os homens com o AR, relacionando-se a intensidade do seu sofrimento com a qualidade do relacionamento conjugal. A sexualidade do casal é também afectada pelo stress e pelo sofrimento associados ao AR. Uma avaliação e acompanhamento deste tipo de problemas são imprescindíveis para ajudar estes casais a manterem a qualidade afectiva e sexual da sua relação. Finalmente, no capítulo 5 sumariámos as conclusões de toda a contribuição pessoal para a investigação sobre os factores associados e repercussões para o casal da perda recorrente de gravidez.-------------------ABSTRACT: Recurrent miscarriage (RM), a rare condition, has been described as a traumatic event for couples. Parental chromosomal anomalies, maternal thrombophilic disorders and structural uterine anomalies have been directly associated with RM. However, despite significant advances in medical research, the vast majority of cases remain unexplained. Aspects as the ethnic diversity of the population with different expression of genes, the inappropriate characterization of patients and of pregnancy losses, as well as different methodologies used in their study, have influenced the prevalence of etiological factors and have hampered the understanding of this problem. Similarly, little is known about gender differences in psychological experience of RM and its implications for the relationship of the couple. The first objective of this thesis is the characterization of the medical factors and of the psychological consequences related with RM, in the Portuguese population, helping to promote specific evidence-based clinical strategies. In the first part of this thesis, and after a brief general introduction (Chapter 1), a critical review of literature on the definition, the epidemiology and the dimensions involved, with a special emphasis on associated medical and psychological aspects of recurrent miscarriage, is presented (Chapter 2). In Chapters 3 and 4 we describe three studies carried out in Portuguese couples with RM. The first study aimed to investigate the etiological factors and the pattern of pregnancy loss in a cohort of women with RM. Subjects were divided in groups according to their parity (primary or secondary RM) and time of pregnancy loss (embryonic or fetal). Parental chromosome anomalies, uterine anomalies and antiphospholipid syndrome were the most prevalent medical factors. 15.6% of the women were obese. In the majority of cases (55.5%) no identifiable cause was detected. Parity influenced significantly our results. There was a higher prevalence of anatomic factors and antiphospholipid syndrome in primary RM. On the other hand, unexplained losses were more frequent in secondary RM. Except for the parental chromosomal abnormalities; the frequency of risk factors was similar among women with fetal or embryonic losses. Our data emphasizes the results of previous research on the importance of obesity, antiphospholipid syndrome and structural uterine abnormalities as known risk factors for RM, and shows that parity is an important moderator of the weight of those risk factors. Our second study aims to clarify the role of two mutations (factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A) and elucidate the need for their screening in Portuguese women with RM. FVL and PT G20210A analysis was carried out in 100 women with three or more consecutive miscarriages and a control group of 100 parous controls with no history of pregnancy losses. Secondary analysis was made regarding gestational age at miscarriage (embryonic and fetal loss). Overall the prevalence of FVL and PT G20210A was similar in RM women compared with controls. In the RM embryonic subgroup of women, FVL prevalence was inclusively lower than that of controls. Conversely in women with fetal losses both polymorphisms were much more frequent, although statistical significance was not reached due to the small size of this subgroup of patients. These data indicate that inherited maternal thrombophilia is not associated with RM prior to 10 weeks of gestation. Therefore, its screening is not indicated as an initial approach in Portuguese women with RM and a negative personal history of thromboembolic.96 Our second study aims to clarify the role of two mutations (factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A) and elucidate the need for their screening in Portuguese women with RM. FVL and PT G20210A analysis was carried out in 100 women with three or more consecutive miscarriages and a control group of 100 parous controls with no history of pregnancy losses. Secondary analysis was made regarding gestational age at miscarriage (embryonic and fetal loss). Overall the prevalence of FVL and PT G20210A was similar in RM women compared with controls. In the RM embryonic subgroup of women, FVL prevalence was inclusively lower than that of controls. Conversely in women with fetal losses both polymorphisms were much more frequent, although statistical significance was not reached due to the small size of this subgroup of patients. These data indicate that inherited maternal thrombophilia is not associated with RM prior to 10 weeks of gestation. Therefore, its screening is not indicated as an initial approach in Portuguese women with RM and a negative personal history of thromboembolic. In our third study, we investigate gender differences in RM experience and its impact on the couple's relationship and sexuality. Each member of 30 couples with RM answered a set of questionnaires, including the Impact of Events Scale (Horowitz et al., 1979), the Perinatal Grief Scale (Toedter et al., 1988), the Partnership Questionnaire (Hahlweg, 1979) and the Intimate Relationship Scale (Hetherington e Soeken, 1990). Results showed that men do grieve, but less intensely than women. Although the quality of the couple‟s relationship seemed not to be adversely affected by RM, both partners described sexual changes after those events. Grief was related to the quality of communication in the couple for women, and to the quality of sex life for men. An understanding of such issues is critical in helping these couples to maintain sexual and affective quality of their relationship. Finally, in Chapter 5, conclusions and clinical implications of all personal contribution to the investigation on associated factors and relational consequences of recurrent miscarriage are presented.

Working hours and earnings: are mates’ answers coherent?

As surveys about time allocation among couples are extremely expensive, one way of reducing costs could be to query only one member of the coupler with the same set of questions about him/her and about his/her partner. In this paper we show that after carrying out a survey in this way, the responses given by one partner do not always fit the same econometric model as those obtained from the other.

Determinants of mother-baby relationship evaluated during pregnancy

ABSTRACT Background Mental health promotion is supported by a strong body of knowledge and is a matter of public health with the potential of a large impact on society. Mental health promotion programs should be implemented as soon as possible in life, preferably starting during pregnancy. Programs should focus on malleable determinants, introducing strategies to reduce risk factors or their impact on mother and child, and also on strengthening protective factors to increase resilience. The ambition of early detecting risk situations requires the development and use of tools to assess risk, and the creation of a responsive network of services based in primary health care, especially maternal consultation during pregnancy and the first months of the born child. The number of risk factors and the way they interact and are buffered by protective factors are relevant for the final impact. Maternal-fetal attachment (MFA) is not yet a totally understood and well operationalized concept. Methodological problems limit the comparison of data as many studies used small size samples, had an exploratory character or used different selection criteria and different measures. There is still a lack of studies in high risk populations evaluating the consequences of a weak MFA. Instead, the available studies are not very conclusive, but suggest that social support, anxiety and depression, self-esteem and self-control and sense of coherence are correlated with MFA. MFA is also correlated with health practices during pregnancy, that influence pregnancy and baby outcomes. MFA seems a relevant concept for the future mother baby interaction, but more studies are needed to clarify the concept and its operationalization. Attachment is a strong scientific concept with multiple implications for future child development, personality and relationship with others. Secure attachment is considered an essential basis of good mental health, and promoting mother-baby interaction offers an excellent opportunity to intervention programmes targeted at enhancing mental health and well-being. Understanding the process of attachment and intervening to improve attachment requires a comprehension of more proximal factors, but also a broader approach that assesses the impact of more distal social conditions on attachment and how this social impact is mediated by family functioning and mother-baby interaction. Finally, it is essential to understand how this knowledge could be translated in effective mental health promoting interventions and measures that could reach large populations of pregnant mothers and families. Strengthening emotional availability (EA) seems to be a relevant approach to improve the mother-baby relationship. In this review we have offered evidence suggesting a range of determinants of mother-infant relationship, including age, marital relationship, social disadvantages, migration, parental psychiatric disorders and the situations of abuse or neglect. Based on this theoretical background we constructed a theoretical model that included proximal and distal factors, risk and protective factors, including variables related to the mother, the father, their social support and mother baby interaction from early pregnancy until six months after birth. We selected the Antenatal Psychosocial Health Assessment (ALPHA) for use as an instrument to detect psychosocial risk during pregnancy. Method Ninety two pregnant women were recruited from the Maternal Health Consultation in Primary Health Care (PHC) at Amadora. They had three moments of assessment: at T1 (until 12 weeks of pregnancy) they filed out a questionnaire that included socio-demographic data, ALPHA, Edinburgh post-natal Depression Scale (EDPS), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) and Sense of Coherence (SOC); at T2 (after the 20th weeks of pregnancy) they answered EDPS, SOC and MFA Scale (MFAS), and finally at T3 (6 months after birth), they repeated EDPS and SOC, and their interaction with their babies was videotaped and later evaluated using EA Scales. A statistical analysis has been done using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, univariate logistic regression and multiple linear regression. Results The study has increased our knowledge on this particular population living in a multicultural, suburb community. It allow us to identify specific groups with a higher level of psychosocial risk, such as single or divorced women, young couples, mothers with a low level of education and those who are depressed or have a low SOC. The hypothesis that psychosocial risk is directly correlated with MFAS and that MFA is directly correlated with EA was not confirmed, neither the correlation between prenatal psychosocial risk and mother-baby EA. The study identified depression as a relevant risk factor in pregnancy and its higher prevalence in single or divorced women, immigrants and in those who have a higher global psychosocial risk. Depressed women have a poor MFA, and a lower structuring capacity and a higher hostility to their babies. In average, depression seems to reduce among pregnant women in the second part of their pregnancy. The children of immigrant mothers show a lower level of responsiveness to their mothers what could be transmitted through depression, as immigrant mothers have a higher risk of depression in the beginning of pregnancy and six months after birth. Young mothers have a low MFA and are more intrusive. Women who have a higher level of education are more sensitive and their babies showed to be more responsive. Women who are or have been submitted to abuse were found to have a higher level of MFA but their babies are less responsive to them. The study highlights the relevance of SOC as a potential protective factor while it is strongly and negatively related with a wide range of risk factors and mental health outcomes especially depression before, during and after pregnancy. Conclusions ALPHA proved to be a valid, feasible and reliable instrument to Primary Health Care (PHC) that can be used as a total sum score. We could not prove the association between psychosocial risk factors and MFA, neither between MFA and EA, or between psychosocial risk and EA. Depression and SOC seems to have a clear and opposite relevance on this process. Pregnancy can be considered as a maturational process and an opportunity to change, where adaptation processes occur, buffering risk, decreasing depression and increasing SOC. Further research is necessary to better understand interactions between variables and also to clarify a better operationalization of MFA. We recommend the use of ALPHA, SOC and EDPS in early pregnancy as a way of identifying more vulnerable women that will require additional interventions and support in order to decrease risk. At political level we recommend the reinforcement of Immigrant integration and the increment of education in women. We recommend more focus in health care and public health in mental health condition and psychosocial risk of specific groups at high risk. In PHC special attention should be paid to pregnant women who are single or divorced, very young, low educated and to immigrant mothers. This study provides the basis for an intervention programme for this population, that aims to reduce broad spectrum risk factors and to promote Mental Health in women who become pregnant. Health and mental health policies should facilitate the implementation of the suggested measures.

O impacto do diagnóstico de demência no casal

RESUMO: A experiência de viver com demência ocorre, frequentemente, num contexto de uma relação conjugal duradoura. A qualidade da relação e o sentido de coerência (conjunto de características pessoais que permite compreender, gerir e integrar os factores de stress de forma construtiva) apresentam-se como factores promotores e protectores da saúde, no contexto de experiências adversas, nomeadamente de doença. Provavelmente, o mesmo poderá acontecer nos quadros demenciais. O presente estudo teve como objectivo principal analisar o impacto do diagnóstico, no contexto das fases iniciais de demência, em casais de pessoas idosas, explorando o papel da qualidade da relação conjugal e do sentido de coerência na confrontação com o diagnóstico e na experiência de viver com a doença. Realizámos um estudo observacional de seis casais de pessoas idosas (pessoas com demência e respectivos cônjuges prestadores de cuidados), com recurso a entrevistas individuais e conjuntas como suplemento metodológico central, suportado pela utilização dos instrumentos: Orientation to Life Questionnaire - SOC (Antonovsky, 1987) e Quality of Carer-Patient Relationships – QCPR (Spruytte et al. 2000). Os resultados sugerem que a qualidade da relação e um sentido de coerência mais elevado podem facilitar uma adaptação bem-sucedida aos desafios, promover a adopção de estratégias para reforçar os aspectos positivos da experiência de cuidar e atenuar os negativos (sobrecarga e sofrimento psíquico do cuidador), encorajar padrões positivos no acesso e na utilização dos cuidados formais e adiar a institucionalização precoce da pessoa com demência.----------------------- ABSTRACT: In couples, caregiving experiences in dementia usually occur within long-standing relationships preceding the onset of the illness and evolving as it progresses. The quality of relationship (QR) and Antonovsky’s salutogenic construct of sense of coherence (SOC) are assumed to promote and protect health in stressful situations, such as dementia. SOC refers to the extent to which a person considers his/her life as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. We aim to uncover the role of QR and SOC as moderator or mediator in the ability of patients and their partners to cope with the impact of dementia We studied six couples in which one spouse had been diagnosed with dementia. We used a qualitative research approach (combining in-depth individual and joint interviews), triangulated with the measures Orientation to Life Questionnaire - SOC scale (Antonovsky, 1987) and the Quality of Carer-Patient Relationships – QCPR (Spruytte et al. 2000). The method was informed by a literature review on the role of RQ and SOC within dementia. Results highlight the importance of listening to both spouses, in a dyadic perspective, while acknowledging the voice of PwD themselves despite methodological challenges. Aspects of prior relationship impact on caregiving dynamics and on how the care-giver and care-recipient roles are experienced. At the same time, the experience of living with dementia impacts on the relationship, often causing change or loss which is difficult to accept or adjust to. Diagnosis played an important role on the SOC’s comprehensibility component (life makes sense). Good pre-caregiving and current relationship was associated with carers’ ability to cope, namely on SOC’s manageability (problems will be bearable) and meaningfulness (life is viewed as a challenge). Our findings suggest that an understanding of QR and SOC prior to diagnosis may encourage positive patterns of care, foster successful adaptation to changing needs, and support in-home arrangements as long as possible.