The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Empirical models for quantification of machining damage in composite materials

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Hospital costs and random demand

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A consumer research project as the basis for the development of a marketing plan for a new spirit brand producing gin in Germany

This work project is about developing a marketing plan for a new gin brand in Germany. It is based on consumer and market research, including Portugal as a trend market for the qualitative research. For the undertaking it is seen as fundamental to understand the industry as well as the consumer needs, attitudes and preferences. Furthermore, it is important to consider the estimation of opinion leaders and trendsetters in the industry. In this context it turned out that barkeepers have a key-influencing role for the stimulation of demand. Based on the insights from this research as well as on the gained market knowledge, the marketing plan was developed. The goal is to convince other brand users to switch brands.

Fisioterapia e reabilitação em Portugal : o financiamento como factor crítico do desempenho

RESUMO - Num contexto em que a prestação de cuidados de Fisioterapia e Reabilitação é identificada como apresentando uma desigualdade e desajustamento da oferta regional superior à dos restantes cuidados de saúde, assim como uma falta de adequação dos preços praticados, perante as condições de oferta e procura actualmente existentes, o presente trabalho tem por objectivo investigar, no domínio do Desempenho, a influência do Financiamento na definição da prestação destes cuidados, tendo como pressuposto genérico que as decisões estratégicas e a reestruturação produtiva das organizações de saúde são condicionadas pelo sistema de preços. Considera-se que o actual sistema de Financiamento/Pagamento provoca um constrangimento na qualidade da resposta destes cuidados a dois níveis: um primeiro nível, ao colocar o pagamento no âmbito dos Meios Complementares de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica (MCDTs) a contratar pelo Serviço Nacional de Saúde, com isso determinando a configuração organizativa do sistema; um segundo nível de constrangimento que incide sobre as estruturas das organizações prestadoras, pela modelação que induz, nomeadamente a nível da sua produção. Na impossibilidade de tratar as duas dimensões do problema, pela falta de indicadores de desempenho deste sector, analisou-se, relativamente ao segundo nível de constrangimento, a produção de fisioterapia de três organizações que, potencialmente, teriam o mesmo o mesmo perfil de oferta por se enquadrarem num mesmo perfil de procura. Os resultados reflectem o pressuposto genérico do trabalho e abrem espaço para colocar como futura hipótese de investigação a razão da(s) causa(s) que poderão estar subjacentes à discrepância encontrada na média de tratamentos por sessão (duas vezes e meia) na produção das duas organizações que foi possível comparar.------------------- ABSTRACT - In a context where the provision of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation care is identified as having a regional mismatch of supply and inequality above all the others health cares, and a lack of adequacy of prices in the current conditions of supply and demand, the present work has, as main purpose, to investigate, in the field of Performance, the Payment’s influence in shaping the provision of such health care. The general assumption tracking this analysis is that the strategic decisions on productive structure of health care organizations are influenced by the price systems. It is considered that the current Finance / Payment system causes two levels of constraints on the quality of such health care: a first constraint, as it putts its payment under the Supplementary Means of Diagnosis and Therapy (MCDTs), witch ends up establishing the organizational setup of the system; a second level of constraint by modelling the internal structure of these organizations. The lack of indicators characterizing the performance of this sector, addressed the present study to the second dimension, in witch was analysed the physical therapy production in three organizations that, potentially, would have the same profile of supply responding to similar characteristics of demand. The results reflect the above mentioned general assumption that supported the work, and leave an open space for future research, about the reason (s) that lay behind the discrepancy found between the average of treatments per session (two and a half times) in

O impacto da variação do preço na procura de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Assiste-se a um crescimento exponencial das despesas em saúde, quer na Europa como nos Estados Unidos. Em Portugal, os gastos totais com a saúde ascenderam a 10,2% do PIB, em 2006, contra os 8,8% registados no início da década anterior. É importante perceber o que motiva este crescimento quer em termos globais, quer no que diz respeito ao consumo de recursos, bem como até em termos da despesa pública. Este projecto tem dois objectivos fundamentais: em primeiro lugar, contribuir para o estudo dos factores determinantes da procura de cuidados de saúde em Portugal e, consequentemente, determinar as elasticidades procura – preço para diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde. Metodologia: Estudo observacional baseado na análise empírica de dados administrativos (claims) respeitantes à utilização dos cuidados de saúde por parte de 12.230 indivíduos detentores de um plano de seguro de saúde individual, numa seguradora privada em Portugal. As elasticidades procura – preço para os diferentes tipos de cuidados de saúde obtiveram-se utilizando as variações percentuais das quantidades dos diferentes cuidados de saúde, antes e depois da variação do preço pago pelo indivíduo, para cada tipo de cuidado de saúde. Resultados: De acordo com a teoria económica tradicional o aumento do preço a pagar reduz o consumo de cuidados de saúde, e a procura é elástica, ou seja, os valores da elasticidade procura – preço obtidos são superiores a 1, em valor absoluto, logo o aumento do preço levou a uma redução mais do que proporcional das quantidades procuradas. A procura de cuidados de saúde em ambulatório é mais sensível à variação do preço do que a procura de cuidados de internamento. ------- ABSTRACT - We are witnessing an exponential growth of health care expenditures around the world. In Portugal, the total expenditure on health amounted to 10.2% of GDP in 2006, against 8.8% at the beginning of previous decade. It is important to understand what motivates this growth both in overall terms, with respect to resource consumption, and even in terms of public spending. This study was designed two achieve two objectives: first, to contribute to the study of demand for health care and, more specifically, to analyze the effect of price changes on the utilization of health care services; and secondly, to estimate the demand elasticity for different types of heath care. Methodology: Observational study based on empirical analysis of administrative data (claims) from a private health insurance Company in Portugal. The sample used had information regarding 12.230 individuals. Demand elasticity for the different types of health care services was obtained by the quotient between the percentage changes in the quantity of health care services, before and after the change in the price paid by the corresponding percentage change in the price. Results: This study showed that, for all medical services, price increases were associated with reductions in the quantity of care consumed as predicted by neoclassical demand theory, and we are in the presence of an elastic demand. This means that price elasticity is greater than 1 in absolute value so the increase in the price led to a more than proportional reduction in the quantity demanded. Demand elasticity was more responsive to changes in the price of specialist and emergency care than to changes in the price of inpatient care.

Caracterização da utilização da urgência pediátrica num hospital da área metropolitana de Lisboa

RESUMO - Introdução: Actualmente o uso excessivo dos serviços de Urgência Pediátrica hospitalares constitui uma das preocupações de gestores e administradores hospitalares. Esta má utilização pode contribuir para o aumento descomedido dos custos uma vez que a procura não é adequada para este tipo de serviço. A procura de respostas rápidas aos problemas de saúde contribui para a afluência exagerada e por vezes injustificada por parte da população. Objectivo: O objectivo deste estudo foi efectuar a caracterização da utilização da urgência pediátrica num hospital da área metropolitana de Lisboa, no sentido de compreender se existe, ou não, procura injustificada de cuidados de saúde. Material e métodos: Foi utilizado como suporte metodológico uma abordagem quantitativa, num estudo descritivo - correlacional. Foram analisados 36932 episódios de Urgência Pediátrica ocorridos num período de 6 meses (Julho 2010 a Janeiro 2011). Resultados: A amostra é constituída por 53,6% utentes do sexo masculino e por 46,4% do sexo feminino; onde o intervalo de idades mais representativo situa-se entre o 1 ano e 5 anos de idade. O concelho de Sintra apresenta 61% dos episódios, no entanto proporcionalmente o concelho de Amadora recorre mais à Urgência Pediátrica com 7,48% dos episódios. O dia com maior afluência é Segunda-feira com 17% dos episódios; 75% dos epsiódios ocorre entre as 8h - 20h, periodo de funcionamento dos Centros de Saúde. Foram considerados como não urgentes, 54,9% dos episódios, 88,8% destes são encaminhados para o Centro de Saúde. São não referenciados 90% dos episódios. Existe evidência de utilização injustificada do Serviço de Urgência Pediátrica por 49,5% dos utentes. Verifica-se que a utilização do serviço de urgência depende da residência dos utentes (p=0,001), a população da Amadora recorre mais à urgência. Existe evidência de relação entre o dia da semana e o acesso injustificado (p <0,001), quinta-feira apresenta 17,3% dos episódios não justificados. A recorrência injustificada ao serviço de urgência não depende do género (p=0,137). Existe relação entre a idade e a recorrência justificada, sendo estatisticamente significativa (p=0,006). Conclusão: Pode concluir-se que a “sobre utilização” e “inadequação” da procura são fenómenos presentes no Serviço de Urgência Pediátrica. Assim urgem medidas de contenção da utilização indevida, passando estas provavelmente por uma consciencialização e educação da população. - ABSTRACT - Introduction: Currently the overuse of Pediatric Emergency hospital services is a major concern of managers and hospital administrators. This misure may contribute to increased costs because of the inordinate demand is not appropriate for this type of service. The demand for rapid response to health problems contributing to the influx exaggerated and sometimes unjustified by the population. Objective: The aim of this study was carried out to characterize the use of emergency pediatric hospital in the metropolitan area of Lisbon, in order to understand whether there is or not unjustified demand for health care. Methods: We used it as a methodological support a quantitative approach, a descriptive study - correlation. We analyzed 36,932 episodes of pediatric emergency occurring in a period of six months (July 2010 to January 2011). Results: The sample consists of 53.6% of male users and 46.4% female, where the most representative age range is between 1 and 5 years old. The Municipality of Sintra has 61% of the episodes, but the proportion of the county Amadora Pediatric Emergency appeals more to the 7.48% of the episodes. Monday 17% of the episodes is the busiest day, 75% of episodes occurs between 8 am - 20 h period of operation of the Health Centres were considered non-urgent, 54.9% of episodes, 88.8 % of these are referred to the Health Center They are not referenced 90% of episodes. There is evidence of unjustified use of the Pediatric ER for 49.5% of users. It appears that the use of emergency service depends on the residence of users (p = 0.001), the population of Amadora uses more urgency. There is evidence of a relationship between the day of the week and unjustified access (p <0.001), Thursday shows 17.3% of the episodes are not justified. Recurrence unjustified the emergency room does not depend on gender (p = 0.137). There is a relationship between age and recurrence justified statistically significant (p = 0.006). Conclusion: It can be concluded that "on use" and "inadequacy" of demand phenomena are present in the Pediatric ER. So urge measures to curb misuse, these probably passing an awareness and education of the population.

Aumento das taxas moderadoras nas urgências hospitalares : que impacto sobre a procura?

RESUMO - Objetivo: Quantificar a variação da procura ocorrida no Serviço de Urgência Hospitalar (SUH) de um hospital na zona de Lisboa face ao aumento de preço da taxa moderadora da urgência em janeiro de 2012. Metodologia: O presente trabalho recorre à análise de micro dados sobre a utilização do Serviço de Urgência do Hospital Garcia de Orta (HGO) em dois períodos: 1 de janeiro de 2011 a 30 de junho de 2011 e 1 de janeiro de 2012 a 30 de junho de 2012. A amostra é constituída por 156.654 idas ao SUH do HGO. Aferiu-se ainda a elasticidade da procura face ao preço por sexo, escalão etário, proveniência, local e causa da admissão e destino dos utentes. Resultados: Existiram 80.344 episódios de urgência em 2011 e 76.310 em 2012 (-5%).Em relação aos utentes não isentos, houve uma redução de 12% no total de episódios de urgência (26.168 em 2011 e 23.037 em 2012). O preço da urgência aumentou 108% para os indivíduos não isentos (€9,6 para €20). Os valores obtidos para a elasticidade da procura face ao preço são próximos de zero para o total da procura bem como para as restantes variáveis. Conclusões: Conclui-se que a procura de cuidados de urgência é inelástica face ao aumento do preço no hospital analisado. Embora se tenha verificado uma redução dos cuidados procurados (12%), esta foi muito inferior ao aumento ocorrido no preço (108%).

Achieving better service level results, through improvements in procedures

This project aims to prepare Worten Empresas (WE) fulfilling the increasing market demand through process changings, focusing on the Portuguese market, particularly on internal B2B clients1. Several methods were used to measure the current service level provided - process mapping, resources assessment, benchmark and a survey. The results were then used to compare against service level actually desired by WE’s customer, and then to identify the performance gaps in response times and quality of the follow-up during the sales process. To bridge the identified gaps, both a set of recommendations and an implementation plan were suggested to improve and monitor customer experience. This study concluded that it is possible to fulfill the increasing level of demand and at the same time improve customer satisfaction by implementing changes at the operations level.

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese households' demand for electricity

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Hotel industry: An answer to the emerging trends on the global demand side of tourism

This dissertation studies essentially how Millennials are changing the hotel industry, in the sense that new trends are emerging with this generation and hotels need to respond accordingly, in order to survive within their competitive industry. Emphasis is also given to Asian travellers, as the enlargement of these countries’ middle class populations is predicted, therefore making Asian travellers a valuable target for the hotel industry. To successfully target this segment, hoteliers need also to consider the cultural differences and aspirations that come together with the Asian travellers, and appropriately adapt their offer to them. I will then redirect this study to the city of Lisbon, the Portuguese capital, to analyse if Lisbon’s four and five-star hotel managers are aware of the new market trends, and to understand how they are changing their hotels in order to make them more attractive to Millennials and Asian travellers. Using a sample of 12 hotels (four and five-stars ratings), I have concluded that, although there is a notable undergoing process of adaptation to these guests, there is a long way ahead in order for Lisbon’s hotels to entirely please and retain millennial guests.

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

What do broadband consumers want? Design and execution of a questionnaire on demand for bundled services on the Portuguese telecomunications market

The report addresses the question of what are the preferences of broadband consumers on the Portuguese telecommunication market. A triple play bundle is being investigated. The discrete choice analysis, adopted in the study, base on 110 responses, mainly from NOVA students. The data for the analysis was collected via manually designed on-line survey. The results show that the price attribute is relatively the most important one while the television attribute is being overlooked in the decision making process. Main effects examined in the research are robust. In addition, "extras" components are being tested in terms of users' preferences.

Health care costs of domestic violence against women – evidence from Portugal

Our main objective is to estimate the additional health care costs to the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) due to domestic violence against women. We collected information through a survey addressed to health care centres’ female users. Both victims and non-victims of violence were inquired. We estimate costs according to five different groups – consultation costs, health care treatment and therapeutic costs, costs of complementary and diagnostic exams, drugs costs and transport costs. The estimations have been split into two perspectives – the NHS perspective (public perspective) and private perspective of inquired women (out of pocket payments). The timeframe of our calculations is one year, referring to all costs generated by domestic violence situations in the last twelve months. Essentially costs were estimated through the product of total number of episodes by the average estimated price per episode. Additionally, for the private costs, we also considered the costs originated by income losses, the opportunity cost of time spent on health care treatments and the work inability caused by sickness. The results suggest that the victims of domestic violence’s additional demand for health care is valued €140 per annum, that is about 22% higher than health care costs of non-victims. These results match those of similar studies for the United States, taking account of per capita differences in health care spending. A large proportion (90%) of the additional costs associated with domestic violence is supported by the NHS, where consultations and drugs are the most important contributors of such costs. Health consequences of domestic violence result from losses in quality of life and worst health status of victims and correspond to additional permanent economic costs of domestic violence episodes.